FINALS are upon us and there are some fascinating match-ups over the weekend.
Mick Stinear will coach against Melbourne for the first time, Sydney and the Western Bulldogs are hoping to get some stars back from injury, and Gold Coast and Hawthorn are fighting it out for their first ever finals win.
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Here's who and what to look out for across the first week of finals as well as a tip for each match.
Geelong v Melbourne, Ikon Park
Saturday, November 7, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Melbourne 9.5 (59) def. Geelong 6.9 (45), round 12 2025
Head-to-head: Geelong – one win, Melbourne – three wins
Finals played: Geelong – 5 (2W/3L), Melbourne – 13 (7W/6L)
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The head-to-head everyone has been waiting for. Mick Stinear, against the side he took to a flag, for the very first time. This is also star Demon Tyla Hanks' 100th AFLW game, Geelong co-captain Nina Morrison's 75th and Olivia Purcell against her old side. There are plenty of drawcards when it comes to emotion. It's worth mentioning that the only time Geelong has beaten Melbourne was in the only final they've played against one another back in 2023. Added to this, the Demons are optimistic that Eliza McNamara will make her return from jaw surgery, seriously strengthening the side at the time it needs it most.
The midfield battle in this one is absolutely everything, to put it simply. It is in the middle that each of these sides get control in games. They sit No.1 (Geelong, 24.3 points) and No.2 (Melbourne, 23.1 points) for scores from stoppage, and they use that contest work around the ground to create plenty of attacking forays. They both boast a great spread of goalkickers, they're high-scoring sides, and mark the footy inside 50 at exceptionally high rates. The gap, really, in their styles throughout the year has been Geelong's capacity to score from turnover, averaging two more goals per game from the source compared to the Demons. But Melbourne does defend stoppage very well, conceding the fewest points per game from the source. It will be a real push-pull of how each side defends different phases of the game.
Tip: We'll have a shootout. Geelong by seven points.
North Melbourne v Carlton, Ikon Park
Saturday, November 7, 4.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: North Melbourne 4.9 (33) def. Carlton 3.5 (23), round five 2026
Head-to-head: North Melbourne – seven wins, Carlton – zero wins
Finals played: North Melbourne – 15 (11W/4L), Carlton – 6 (4W/2L)
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Although Carlton got within 10 points of its first win over North Melbourne in round five, a few things have changed in the weeks since. Yes, the Roos have lost a game, but have found the form of their dominant 2025 season once more, while the Blues have struggled a little, particularly around the contest. They are further exposed in this area given Claudia Whitfort's absence for at least Saturday's clash as she manages a hamstring issue. Over the past five weeks, Carlton is the No.18 clearance team, averaging just 19.4, dropping from its average of 21.3 across the season as a whole. The blueprint against the Blues – as brought into stark focus by the Western Bulldogs in round 10 – is to shut down their handball exits by way of pressure in close. This is something the Roos can effectively do without really needing to change their own game style.
North Melbourne will be more aware of Harriet Cordner's intercepting prowess after the 2025 All-Australian racked up 17 intercepts when the sides met in round five. No doubt, there will be greater consideration when the Roos go forward this time around, with an intention to avoid Cordner's space. Meanwhile, Carlton has allowed poor entries to creep into its game, lacking the attacking length to make best use of its quick ball movement and playing into the hands of well-organised opposition defences. These sides have the two best rebound 50 rates in the league (North Melbourne at No.1 with 85.7 per cent, Carlton at No.2 at 84.6 per cent), pointing to how important carefully considered entries will be for both sides in this one. Expect the Blues to start well, but for the Roos to run away with it in the last quarter.
Tip: The Roos are going to earn the week off. North Melbourne by 25 points.
Sydney v Western Bulldogs, Henson Park
Sunday, November 8, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Western Bulldogs 9.6 (60) def. Sydney 5.3 (33), round four 2026
Head-to-head: Sydney – one win, Western Bulldogs – two wins
Finals played: Sydney – 2 (1W/1L), Western Bulldogs - 2 (1W/1L)
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The big news swirling around this game early in the week is the potential inclusions for each side. Bulldogs co-captain Isabelle Pritchard has been listed as a test for the clash, after missing round 12 due to a knee injury, while classy Sydney midfielder Sofia Hurley is a potential inclusion after a nasty ankle injury suffered in round five. Both players would be massive boosts for their respective clubs, while the Dogs are also expected to get Ellie Blackburn back for the knockout final.
When they met in round four, the Bulldogs took the game away in the last quarter via their tall forwards – specifically Emma McDonald. They were able to exploit Sydney's undersized defence by way of McDonald and Sarah Hartwig, and no doubt will attempt to harness this again on Saturday. In order to do so, the midfield needs to create plenty of chances for those talls to access the footy. For Sydney, there's some pressure on Montana Ham to bounce back after a quiet couple of weeks so Chloe Molloy can remain forward where she is at her most dangerous. Notably, 2026 leading goalkicker Molloy has kicked 13 goals against the Bulldogs across her career, more than any other player in the AFLW. This one will be a turnover versus stoppage game, with the Swans leaning on turnover to generate its most dangerous scoring game, and the Bulldogs doing so via stoppage. It is important to flag, however, that the Dogs have defended turnover well this year, and this presents as the Swans' big challenge.
Tip: The Swans will get one back. Sydney by 10 points.
Gold Coast v Hawthorn, People First Stadium
Sunday, November 8, 2.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Hawthorn 8.12 (60) def. Gold Coast 6.1 (37), round nine 2025
Head-to-head: Gold Coast – zero wins, Hawthorn – two wins
Finals played: Gold Coast – 2 (0W/2L), Hawthorn – 4 (0W/4L)
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Gold Coast got over the line last week by the skin of its teeth, but gave up enough of a score to fall into an elimination final. While that might be flattening to the mood, the Suns will be buoyed by the return of Ava Usher from suspension, and expected additions of Daisy D'Arcy – who re-signed during the week – Dekota Baron and Clara Fitzpatrick. The Hawks, meanwhile, found their flow last week, with their highest ever AFLW score and a freedom that has been largely absent in the last two years. This one will be a clear clash of styles, as the Hawks boast the second-highest kick rate across the AFLW this year at 62.4 per cent, while the Suns sit 18th for the metric at 53.2 per cent. With totally different ball movement styles, the swings of momentum and control will be clear.
Hawthorn has been dangerous from centre stoppage this year, sitting second for average points from the source (6.8), and in the last five weeks have become more reliant on scores from stoppage. It will be interesting to see how that goes against Gold Coast's powerful midfield. That midfield will be keen to create plenty of opportunities for their marking forwards, given marks inside 50 have been a big growth area of the Suns' game in this surge. Havana Harris is the leader in this respect, but Baron, Anne Hatchard, Usher and Darcie Davies have also carried their weight. This marking game could cause some problems for Hawthorn's defence, putting a lot of pressure on Jenna Richardson and the inexperienced – albeit impressive – Annabelle Embleton.
Tip: The Suns will land their first win over the Hawks, and first finals win in one fell swoop. Gold Coast by three points.
