WITH three rounds remaining, there are five teams currently sitting outside the eight who are mathematically in the running for finals.
The make-up of the top four is also wide open, with the teams currently there all having two of their last three games scheduled against each other.
Collingwood v Geelong this weekend might build some separation within the top eight, while just 1.5 per cent currently separates eighth from 10th.
How's the run home shaping up for your side?
Hawthorn, Yartapuulti, Greater Western Sydney, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs have not been considered.
1. Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, zero losses), 237 per cent
Two top-four clashes await the Crows, who have already seen off Melbourne at Casey Fields, in the next fortnight. They'll have to travel to Brighton Homes Arena to face Brisbane – which doesn't quite yet have a winning record at its new home base – but will host the Roos at home. A straightforward match against the Eagles rounds out the season.
The run home
R8: Brisbane @ Brighton Homes Arena
R9: North Melbourne @ Norwood Oval
R10: West Coast @ Mineral Resources Park
2. North Melbourne
24 points (six wins, one loss), 294.4 per cent
The Roos would want to keep winning for two reasons – to lock up a top-two spot, and to give themselves confidence ahead of finals, having yet to knock off one of the big three teams. The healthiest percentage in the AFLW will help their top-four hopes, should the Roos drop one of their two big matches.
The run home
R8: Narrm @ Ikon Park
R9: Adelaide @ Norwood Oval
R10: Western Bulldogs @ VU Whitten Oval
3. Narrm
24 points (six wins, one loss), 266.2 per cent
The Demons have already dropped a game to Adelaide, and need to win at least one of their matches against North Melbourne and Brisbane to stay in the hunt for top two. Walyalup haven't been pushovers this year, but the Casey advantage should see Narrm record the four points.
The run home
R8: North Melbourne @ Ikon Park
R9: Walyalup @ Casey Fields
R10: Brisbane @ Brighton Homes Arena
4. Brisbane
20 points (five wins, two losses), 173.3 per cent
It hasn't quite been the all-conquering Brisbane this season, having lost a handful of star players over the Trade Period. Previous narrow losses to Richmond and Collingwood leaves the Lions as the most vulnerable to dropping out of the top four, especially with games against Adelaide and Narrm to come. A big win over St Kilda may be crucial in maintaining a percentage buffer, but super high scores at the windy RSEA Park are few and far between.
The run home
R8: Adelaide @ Brighton Homes Arena
R9: St Kilda @ RSEA Park
R10: Narrm @ Brighton Homes Arena
5. Essendon
20 points (five wins, two losses), 104.1 per cent
A friendly draw – playing just one top-four side (four finalists total) – coupled with natural improvements has helped Essendon rise up the ladder, poised for its first AFLW finals appearance in just its second season. After seeing off Geelong and Richmond, another two crunch matches await against Carlton and Gold Coast. The latter is in Mackay, which could throw up a weather curveball. Winning two of three would all but assure the Bombers of finals.
The run home
R8: West Coast @ Windy Hill
R9: Carlton @ Windy Hill
R10: Gold Coast @ Great Barrier Reef Arena
6. Geelong
16 points (four wins, three losses), 123 per cent
The Cats' destiny will be decided in the next two weeks, with key matches against Collingwood and Richmond. Given the Tigers' injury list, they'll be confident but not assured of a win, but the rejuvenated Magpies are a different matter. Hawthorn has also thrown up a few curveballs at teams this year, and the Cats won't cruise to a win there, either. Unlikely to drop out of the top eight due to percentage, but top four appears a reach too far.
The run home
R8: Collingwood @ Victoria Park
R9: Richmond @ Ikon Park
R10: Hawthorn @ GMHBA Stadium
7. Gold Coast
16 points (four wins, three losses), 107.6 per cent
It's looking likely we'll be hearing trumpets during the finals series, with the Suns having a friendlier run home than their top-eight rivals. The Suns would have looked shakier against Yartapuulti and Greater Western Sydney in the past, but seem to have found a level of maturity this season, and are no longer dropping games they shouldn't. The final-round match against Essendon may be the difference between hosting and travelling for the Suns' elimination final.
The run home
R8: Yartapuulti @ Alberton Oval
R9: Greater Western Sydney @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R10: Essendon @ Great Barrier Reef Arena
8. Collingwood
16 points (four wins, three losses), 98.8 per cent
A few weeks ago, Collingwood simply had to keep winning in order to keep its finals hopes alive, and now the Pies have scraped into the top eight. They're a strong chance to upset the Cats, playing at Vic Park, and should beat Sydney and an understrength Richmond to lock away another elimination final.
The run home
R8: Geelong @ Victoria Park
R9: Sydney @ Henson Park
R10: Richmond @ Victoria Park
9. Carlton
16 points (four wins, three losses), 98.1 per cent
It's crunch time for the Blues, who were badly beaten around the ball over the weekend. Carlton should have too many weapons for GWS, but things become trickier in the final two weeks of the season. Essendon may be a bridge too far, meaning the Blues' finals chance may rest on their round 10 clash with fellow finals aspirant St Kilda.
The run home
R8: Greater Western Sydney @ Henson Park
R9: Essendon @ Windy Hill
R10: St Kilda @ Ikon Park
10. St Kilda
16 points (four wins, three losses), 97.3 per cent
The Saints will be banking on wins against Walyalup (in Perth) and Carlton in order to make finals, as well as an upset happening to a team above them, although they have a reasonable percentage. A narrow loss to Brisbane will help keep that percentage intact.
The run home
R8: Walyalup @ Fremantle Oval
R9: Brisbane @ RSEA Park
R10: Carlton @ Ikon Park
11. Richmond
12 points (three wins, four losses), 92 per cent
Injuries have cruelled Richmond's season, and while the Tigers got away with slow starts earlier this year, they no longer have the available players to pull off their run-down victories. Theoretically, they should be too strong for Hawthorn, but the Hawks love an upset win and the game is being played in Cairns. The Cats follow at Ikon Park, with the visitors having too much midfield depth, and the Pies may be a bridge too far.
The run home
R8: Hawthorn @ Cazalys Stadium
R9: Geelong @ Ikon Park
R10: Collingwood @ Victoria Park
12. Sydney
12 points (three wins, four losses), 79.8 per cent
We’re into mathematical territory here, with percentage issues a serious concern for the Swans. Three wins will be crucial for a maiden finals appearance. They should be too strong for an injury-hit Western Bulldogs, but are unlikely to record victories over both Collingwood and Walyalup at Fremantle Oval.
The run home
R8: Western Bulldogs @ VU Whitten Oval
R9: Collingwood @ Henson Park
R10: Walyalup @ Fremantle Oval
13. Walyalup
12 points (three wins, four losses), 70.7 per cent
Like Sydney, percentage is going to cost Walyalup here, as well as the round nine clash against a powerful Narrm outfit on its home deck. This weekend's clash against St Kilda is intriguing, but both the Dockers and Swans are likely to be out of the finals race by round 10.
The run home
R8: St Kilda @ Fremantle Oval
R9: Narrm @ Casey Fields
R10: Sydney @ Fremantle Oval
