THE WESTERN Bulldogs and Fremantle failed to capitalise on easier-than-expected draws in 2023, while Collingwood defied the toughest fixture of all 18 teams to win the minor premiership.

The Dockers, semi-finalists last year, in particular squandered a great opportunity after playing just two top-eight sides twice (Brisbane and Sydney) while also doubling up against Hawthorn and West Coast.

At the start of the season, we calculated the expected degree of difficulty of each club's fixture by tallying the 2022 ladder positions of the teams a club was due to play twice, with a lower number meaning a harder draw.

Fremantle's expected degree of difficulty at the start of the season was 45, the equal hardest in the competition, but its draw softened as last year's grand finalists, the Swans and Geelong, fell away this year. After being expected to have the equal hardest draw, the Dockers ended up with the equal 13th hardest but finished with a 10-13 win-loss record to end up in 14th spot.

The Bulldogs were set to have the eighth hardest draw in 2023 but finished alongside Fremantle and Sydney with the equal 13th most difficult, yet Luke Beveridge's side missed the finals after Greater Western Sydney's win over Carlton on Sunday.

The Magpies' run to the minor premiership is made even more impressive by the fact Craig McRae's team had the hardest draw.

Collingwood faced top-four sides Brisbane and Port Adelaide twice plus fifth-placed Carlton, and the lowest-ranked team it doubled up against was Geelong (12th).

Arguably the most impressive team to miss the finals was Adelaide, which had the equal second hardest fixture this year after being expected to have the equal 12th hardest.

The Crows played all of the top three teams – the Pies, Lions and Port – twice and finished just a game and a half outside the top eight.

Unlike the Dockers and Bulldogs, the Swans capitalised on an easier-than-expected fixture, while finalists Melbourne, Port and St Kilda also took advantage of a softer draw.

* The expected degree of difficulty was calculated by adding the 2022 ladder positions of the teams a club plays twice. A low total score means a club has a tougher fixture; a high total score means an easier fixture.

* The actual degree of difficulty was calculated by adding the 2023 ladder positions of the teams a club played twice. A low total score means a club has a tougher fixture; a high total score means an easier fixture.