SUMMARY
Brisbane has earned the vital home qualifying final at a venue it is undefeated at this season, setting Port Adelaide a massive challenge in week one.
The Lions enter their fifth consecutive September campaign relatively stable and on a four-game winning run, while the Power have enjoyed a bounce-back season after the disappointment of 2022, stabilizing their year in the past three weeks after a rocky month that threatened to derail their campaign.
The Lions are settled and will regain Lincoln McCarthy (calf), with the major selection questions resting with the Power as Charlie Dixon (foot), Scott Lycett (knee) and Trent McKenzie (knee) push their cases to return.
Todd Marshall is ready to resume after missing round 24 with a hip complaint.
Brisbane v Port Adelaide at the Gabba, 7.25pm AEST
NO LATE CHANGES
SUBSTITUTES
Brisbane: Jarryd Lyons
Port Adelaide: Travis Boak
Where and when: Gabba, Saturday September 9, 7.25pm AEST
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round one: Port Adelaide 18.18 (126) def Brisbane 11.6 (72) at Adelaide Oval
It has been almost six months since these teams last met, with their previous clash coming 12 months before that. It makes it hard to read much into head-to-head form. In round one this year, the Power piled on eight goals in a dominant third quarter to outgun the Lions at Adelaide Oval by 54 points, with Jason Horne-Francis leading the surge alongside Connor Rozee and Zak Butters. Todd Marshall capitalised in attack with four goals and eight marks. The Lions got the job done at the Gabba 12 months earlier, winning by 11 points.
THE STATS THAT MATTER
Brisbane
The Lions lead the competition this year for average points scored from turnover (55.6) and points from turnover differential (+14.4) – an indicator that the past three premiers have ranked No.1 in. Chris Fagan's men will hope their high scoring game, which is built off territory dominance and an ability to lock the ball in the front half, will help them make the next step after last year's nightmare preliminary final loss against Geelong.
Port Adelaide
The Power's major weapon is the gun midfield pairing of Zak Butters and Connor Rozee and young sidekick Jason Horne-Francis. Together, they have helped Port rank No.1 in the AFL for points scored from centre bounce differential. If they can get on top in the middle against the Lions and control centre clearances, they have proven they can lock the ball in their own attacking half thereafter.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR…
Brisbane
Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale is the leading clearance player in the game, and it's a status he lived up to in the Lions' opening final last year with 15 clearances and 39 disposals. He is the player who shapes as the match-winner for the Lions, but Butters and Rozee are obstacles. Can the 30-year-old lead his team to a home preliminary final and move a step closer to the premiership he deserves after a brilliant 243-game career.
Port Adelaide
The defender who has the ability to play a match-winning role for Port is Aliir Aliir, helping turn the tide after the Power ranked last among finalists for points conceded this season (82.9 a game). Aliir is an elite one-on-one defender and averaged 3.2 intercept marks a game this season. If he can lift in that second area and support the backline while taking care of his man, the Power will be in a better position to win.
PREDICTION
Brisbane by 12 points. The Lions last lost at home in round 23 last season and are on a 12-game streak at the Gabba. Aside from missing Will Ashcroft, they have an incredibly settled team and all the motivation you could need after last year's finals campaign took a sour turn. They look ready this year.
