Connor Rozee bursts away from Tom Green in Port Adelaide's win over GWS in round 22, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

HOW THE four semi-finalists go about getting their knockout clashes played on their preferred terms this week will be one of the key questions that determines who progresses to play off for a Grand Final spot.

Carlton has built its September surge on a gold-standard groundball game, while Melbourne's defence and ability to shut down opposition ball-movement has been key as it manages forward-line issues.

Port will bank on its midfielders to bounce back and set up a forward-half game, with Greater Western Sydney building momentum as an exciting team that is playing on constantly and targeting the corridor.

The opening week of finals gave an insight into how these strengths will hold up in September, with Champion Data stats helping to identify where this week's finalists were able to get their games on their terms and how this week could play out statistically.

MELBOURNE V CARLTON

Melbourne
The Demons got their opening final on their terms in a lot of ways but fluffed their lines going into attack. Among their biggest 'wins' was limiting Collingwood's ability to chain the ball from a rebound 50 to an inside 50 (23 per cent) during their qualifying final loss. As a result, Melbourne conceded only 37 inside 50s and 60 points. In many ways, the Demons' game held up until it came to the attacking half. Like Collingwood, they generated 10 scoring opportunities from turnovers, but efficiency proved the difference in the game, scoring 3.7 (25) to the Magpies 6.4 (40) from turnover. Melbourne will need to improve its kick rating going inside 50 (-1.9 per cent against Collingwood) if it is to capitalise on the hard work it is doing elsewhere to have the game on its terms.  

Max Gawn after the First Qualifying Final between Collingwood and Melbourne at the MCG, September 7, 2023. Picture: Getty Images

Carlton
The Blues' game stood up in week one as they hit Sydney with a contested ball assault and won the groundball battle +20 (their sixth best result this season and the Swans' worst). The League's best team when it comes to points from clearance differential, the Blues were down in this area (+4) in a tight clash. They also lapsed slightly in their ability to limit scores from inside 50s, conceding 23 scores from Sydney's 46 entries. Where Carlton's game stepped up was with its conversion, recording a 57.9 per cent shot at goal accuracy – the team's fifth best result this season and up from a season average of 46.6 per cent. The Blues will hope to maintain that against Melbourne, while getting the groundball battle on their terms at the MCG.    

03:56

PORT ADELAIDE V GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY  

Port Adelaide
No team lost access to its strengths more than the Power in week one of the finals. The AFL's No.1 team for time in forward half, they lost this indicator in a season-worst result against Brisbane (-11:19) and couldn't get their strong forward-half game going as a result. The Power's forward-half intercepts were down from a season average of 32.8 to just 17, and forward-half stoppages dropped from 22.3 to 13. The result was just 25 points from forward-half chains, down from a season average of 55. Despite winning the clearances (43-39) and shutting down Lachie Neale, the Power lost the scores from stoppages indicator (-42) in a season-worst result. The centre bounces went 15-12 in the Lions' favour and the Power need to find a way to get the territory game back in their favour against Greater Western Sydney.

Connor Rozee and Jed McEntee after the Second Qualifying Final between Brisbane and Port Adelaide at The Gabba, September 9, 2023. Picture: AFL Photos

Greater Western Sydney
A record of 10-2 since round 13 suggests the Giants have no issues getting games on their terms, and that was the case again in their elimination final against St Kilda. They used an above AFL average pressure rating (183) as a foundation, with Tom Green (81), Brent Daniels (73) and Josh Kelly (49) their top three contributors on that measure. Their kick forward percentage dipped slightly but was still high at 90 per cent, while corridor use from rebound 50s was down from 19 to 13 per cent. The unexpected win when it came to controlling the match was flipping the script on scores from centre clearances. Ranked 15th during the home-and-away season and against the sixth-ranked Saints, they won the indicator 19-6. Continuing that trend against a Power team that lost centre bounce scores (-8) against Brisbane will be part of the Giants' plans this week.

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