THERE are few certainties during the Telstra AFL Trade Period.
But one thing is guaranteed. Clubs will never agree on the exact value of a player.
AFL TRADE HUB All the latest news
In looking at what each prospect is worth, clubs must look at past trades as an indicator as to what they should be giving up – or receiving – as part of any potential deal.
INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER Your club's latest picks
Here are the seven biggest names set to be on the move throughout the exchange period, with a historical comparison of what they might be worth on the open market.
Tim Kelly (Geelong to West Coast)
The Cats have reportedly indicated they want three top-30 picks for Kelly, who is reaching his prime after two standout seasons in the AFL. Last year, Dylan Shiel was the blue-chip midfielder on the move. The Giants parted with Shiel and a future second-round pick, getting two first-rounders back. As things stand, they will be last year's pick No.9 and this year's pick No.12. Kelly might have a higher ceiling than Shiel, but has a smaller sample size. A pair of picks around that range – maybe even dual top-10 picks – might get it done. However, given the Cats seem determined to play hard-ball on the issue, it's likely the Eagles will have to reach deeper into their pockets in order to lure the midfielder home.
Jack Martin (Gold Coast to Carlton)
There are differing opinions on the value of Martin, who has been shifted into a variety of positions across a career where he's shown glimpses of his immense talent but hasn’t necessarily been able to string it all together consistently. While there are few examples of players like this getting traded recently, Jared Polec is perhaps who the Suns might look to. He had a high ceiling, was an early draft pick and was in a similar mould positionally when the Kangaroos gave the Power pick No.11 for his services last year. Given Polec had more runs on the board than Martin does now, though, the Blues might be trying to get a deal done for far less than that.
Joe Daniher (Essendon to Sydney)
A key forward who has all of the talent in the world, but has struggled with injury brings one name to mind: Jesse Hogan. Although Hogan was marginally younger than Daniher is now, he was also after a move interstate and could give the Bombers an indication of a potential valuation. The Dockers essentially gave the Demons picks No.6 and No.23 for Hogan last season, who – like Daniher – had one year to run on his existing contract when he was looking for a move. The Swans' opening two selections are currently picks No.5 and No.25, which could see a similar trade to the Hogan deal unfold 12 months on.
Tom Papley (Sydney to Carlton)
One of the best small forwards in the competition, who is seeking a move interstate. That has Charlie Cameron written all over it. Like Papley, he was also a rookie pick. Although Cameron had yet to kick 30 goals in a season when he moved from the Crows to the Lions in 2017, he still commanded pick No.12 on the market. Papley has had two 30-goal seasons in the last three years and has the potential to blossom into the All Australian talent that Cameron is now. That's why he will also warrant a first-round pick in return. The Blues have pick No.9, which is what the Swans should be asking for if they agree to let Papley leave.
Brad Crouch (Adelaide to Gold Coast)
The prolific ball winner is potentially on his way to Queensland, where he would become a first-tier onballer at his new club. It's very similar to the situation involving Lachie Neale last year. The trade taking Neale to Brisbane was quite complicated. The Lions gave up picks No.6, No.19 and No.55 to snare Neale, while also getting back pick No.30. However, the value came in the dual top-20 picks. The Suns have draft selections to burn thanks to the generous assistance package delivered to them by the AFL on Monday. While picks No.1 and No.2 are off the table, could they entice the Crows to deal Crouch with picks No.15 and No.20? More might need to be added to ensure any potential trade gets over the line.
Bradley Hill (Fremantle to St Kilda)
The best comparison for Bradley Hill might be Bradley Hill. The speedy wingman arrived at the Dockers as a three-time premiership player three years ago in exchange for pick No.23, but has taken his game to another level during his time at Fremantle. He's won a best and fairest and was in contention for a place in the All Australian side after a career-best campaign this season. Therefore, his value should have been enhanced significantly now that he is searching for a return back to Victoria. The Saints have pick No.6, which might just be enough to get any potential deal secured.
Eddie Betts (Adelaide to Carlton)
A veteran and a great of the game in Betts is reportedly looking for a reunion with his former side in Carlton. Fortunately, there are a few examples of celebrated older players moving clubs recently, including Luke Hodge. The Lions essentially gave up pick No.75 in order to secure Hodge, then 33 years of age, back in 2017. The Blues will not have to part with much more in order to secure the 32-year-old Betts. Carlton has picks No.69 and No.82 at the bottom of the draft order. Either should be enough to welcome the talented goalkicker back to Ikon Park.
