THREE weeks ago, after Hawthorn's win against Essendon, Hawks' skipper Luke Hodge did a post-match interview with Triple M Radio.
Hawthorn director and commentator Jason Dunstall asked Hodge a question: "Are you noticing the difference with three on the bench and the sub rule from a fatigue perspective?"
Hodge chuckled, then responded with honesty: "I was cramping during the third quarter. That's a big yes mate. I've never been this fatigued (at) this time throughout the season. The bye is in two weeks (and) I'll be looking forward to it. Speaking around to a lot of the boys and blokes from other teams you can really feel how fatigued they are even, as I said, it's only three quarters of the way through the season."
It was round 14. Hodge had just spent 86.3 percent of the game on the ground.
In his 10th season, with 185 games experience behind him, with a round six bye already under his belt and with a personality not prone to exaggeration or complain, the 27-year-old was admitting to the world he had NEVER felt as tired at that stage of the season as he did in 2011.
Surely such a comment would be back-page news.
When the weekend discussion came and went without his comments receiving much attention, afl.com.au began to ask around to see if other players shared Hodge's views.
Carlton's 30-year-old veteran Heath Scotland said he felt OK when asked at a press conference following the Blues loss to the Eagles. No different from any other year really, was his response. "The enjoyment around the club has been up, (which) makes training more enjoyable and makes you feel better," he said.
Early the next week Hawthorn's Sam Mitchell admitted he was starting to get a bit tired. He said players were fortunate to have two byes during 2011, giving them a chance to freshen the body and mind, a chance that may not exist in 2012.
"For the teams that are fighting it out to win every single game, I think that fatigue is going to be a significant part of the season."
He then expressed surprise that his body felt as it did.
"I think the sub rule has had a bigger impact on player fatigue than perhaps was anticipated, and whether or not four plus one [four on the bench rotating plus one sub] is a better system than three plus one [the current rule]. I guess the powers that be will decide that in time to come."
"But certainly the players across the League are feeling a bit more fatigued this season than most," said Mitchell.
Enter round 17 and the Hawks have the bye. Hodge has averaged 83.4 percent game time for the season, up on his 82.8 percent average in 2010. He is making 7.6 interchanges per game this season as opposed to 7.8 per game in 2010.
It might not sound like much but every player will tell you each minute on the ground is wearing on both mind and body. Mitchell had averaged 90 per cent of game time in 14 games, up from 87.6 the season before. Both Mitchell and Hodge are players whose bodies take plenty of heat in close.
Perhaps, before all of this, the Hawks' players' fatigue was an anomaly. Hawthorn has been one of the clubs hardest hit by injury during games in 2011, and has been forced to use the sub before it wanted to on several occasions early in the season.
Then along came Collingwood star Dane Swan admitting to afl.com.au he had been on the 'more tired than ever' list too until he was able to recuperate in Arizona in early June.
Swan told reporter Jennifer Witham he did not come into 2011 thinking he would need a break but eventually his workload caught up with him. He suspected the sub rule had been a significant factor in him needing to miss a game for the first time since his run of 122 consecutive games began in round 13, 2006.
Some would argue the fact Swan had played 100 games in four years before 2011 (including 26 games in 2010) meant a break was inevitable, sub rule or no sub rule.
There is a likelihood that accumulated fatigue did play a part however what is indisputable is that he is getting less rest during games in 2011.
"I don't know exactly but I think it's about six, seven or eight per cent more I'm staying on the ground," he said.
"It's a bit different because you come off and you're only off for 20 [or] 30 seconds then you have to go straight back on again so you're not getting that rest."
Players aren't complaining just being honest. The time for complaint has well and truly passed. In fact a diversity of views exist, underlining the difficulty facing decision-makers when time comes to assess the rule.
Consider the view of Eagles' midfielder Matt Priddis: he is very positive about the rule. "I have really enjoyed it. It means guys are playing an extra 10 or 15 minutes and it is a real survival of the fittest. You have to grind it out and it is great for the fans too."
Of course what is great for the fans is subjective. Conventional wisdom (without the due diligence that can only come after a complete season and de-brief) is that the sub rule has lead to a more attractive game, with the return of long kicking and contested marking a result of the rule change.
The causal relationship between the variables is contested however by those closest observers of the game with assistant coaches suggesting that the need to break through zones and forward presses are the real reasons long kicking and contested marking have returned in 2011, not the sub rule.
Those elements have stayed even, as Priddis suggested the early effect the rule appeared to have on games is not so apparent now. He thinks that as the season has moved past half way, players have become fitter and the effect late in the game is less obvious now.
"In second halves earlier in the year the tempo of the game dropped away a little bit but I think fitness levels have gone up and teams are starting to maintain it (intensity) for four quarters now, " said Priddis.
Bulldogs skipper Matthew Boyd still thinks he is affected late in games. He explained that periods between rotations are longer, looking at 12 to 14 minutes spells on the ground now rather than eight or nine minutes as it had become in previous years.
"It might not sound like a lot but over the course of the game it definitely takes its toll and by the last quarter you are certainly feeling the effects of it," he said.
"I don't know whether that is because I am getting old or the substitute rule is taking effect."
Boyd had averaged 88 percent time on ground up until round 16, 2011 whereas he averaged 88.6 percent of time on ground during 2010. But he is averaging 107.6 minutes per game on the ground so far this season compared to 107.39 minutes per game in 2010. He is coming on and off the ground more often, 6.66 rotations per game in 2011 compared to 5.78 per game in 2010 but clearly spending less time on the bench.
It may be as simple as longer quarters causing the fatigue, a point not lost on Hodge when Dunstall asked him what solutions to his tiredness might be available. "Anything," said Hodge. "Shorter quarters, four or five on the bench. With how I was feeling during the third quarter I would have loved another sub."
The AFL brought in the three-and-one interchange system in an attempt to achieve three outcomes: to slow the game down to reduce the number of injuries; to reduce congestion around the ball; and to make the game fairer.
The AFL has always taken a sensible 'wait and see' approach to the rule's impact, weathering the occasional - particularly early season - protest.
But the terms of reference of any such analysis will need to be wide because the rule's implications seem wider than first envisaged.
Because the game has become 21 on 21 instead of 22 on 22, an equation familiar to any workplace now applies to the football field: completing as much work with the same intensity with less resources equals more work for individuals, and logic would suggest, a higher risk of burnout.
Dictating when a player comes off is more difficult than ever before with reduced numbers on the bench the workload is not as manageable as it once was.
With only three players available on the bench the likelihood of a player finding a suitable player to replace him is reduced, particularly if two midfielders or two defenders or two forwards are trying to come off at the same time.
Clubs such as the Sydney Swans are finding the defenders and forwards and rucks are bearing more workload under the sub rule then in previous seasons to enable the midfielders to maintain their workload at manageable rates.
This sharing of the load has occurred without much recognition. The Bulldogs' 200-gamer Lindsay Gilbee told the AFL Record last week there have been times this year he has returned to the ground with a sore hamstring, something he would have been unlikely to do in other years.
Earlier this season, we documented the impact of the sub rule on the workload of AFL coaching staff. Coaches are spending longer on selection and the pressure is greater in the box on game day. They also need to decide at times whether their best players fatigued are more valuable than the 22nd player fresh.
Conditioners are in new territory making sure players recover week-to-week and ensuring those who play a reduced time because they are subbed on or off get enough work into them each week.
All players agree that the emphasis on recovery has gone to another level again this season. Even with that being the case Boyd says he is taking longer to come back to square one after a game.
"It has definitely had an impact on recovery times. In previous years I'd get to day two and be starting to be on the mend. I guess it's becoming day three and sometimes day four where you are still feeling it a bit and probably easing into training a bit more in those days whereas in previous years I've got to day three and have been right to train and do full sessions."
On Game Day last Sunday, Richmond midfielder Trent Cotchin reaffirmed that view, saying he needed at least an extra day through the week to feel right to return to full training.
Boyd says by game day he is fine but he does miss out on some work earlier in the week. The impact that has on the players' development and touch is hard to measure. It may also mean he de-conditions as the season continues.
Does this suggest a drop off in skills as the year progresses? Or a higher exertion to maintain the skills levels with the extra expenditure being paid for later?
Of course, the effect of accumulated tiredness may well be hidden in medical rooms and across physio tables.
Clubs in commanding positions on the ladder are likely to rest players with sore spots as a precaution. Although this process has been happening for a while now, with clubs more conscious of using their depth (and ladder position and draw) to advantage, the sub rule has made the need more pressing.
Swan says Collingwood and Geelong might look to resting players if they tie up a top-four spot with weeks remaining. "If we do that, we can start looking at - not resting players for the sake of it - but if they need a break," he said.
He said midfielders and power forwards who do a lot of running will probably miss at least one game a year in the future.
This year 116 players have played every game so far. By season's end in 2010 66 had played every game while 76 achieved that feat in 2009 so no massive drop off is apparent yet (even allowing for one extra team in 2011).
Whether resting players is a positive for the game is open to interpretation and, it must be said, the sub rule is not the sole reason such is happening. The trend has been developing for a few years. (Alastair Lynch rarely travelled to Perth in his final years at the Brisbane Lions, and Nathan Buckley and James Hird had rests through their final seasons.)
Such breaks makes safer than ever Jim Stynes' consecutive games record, and Michael Tuck's most games played record, and Robert Harvey's record 32 Brownlow votes (excluding 1976 and 1977 anomalies) in a season, as well as club games played record.
The need to rest players through fatigue also has massive implications for list managers. Does a club use one of its draft selections to choose a mature-aged player who can become a role player?
Moving into the team as the understudy to give the superstars a rest might provide opportunities but it also lessens - marginally - the opportunities to see the stars at work.
Of course, the alternative to resting players periodically might be shortened careers. And no one wants that to happen.
Statistics supplied by Champion Data. Additional reporting from afl.com.au writers
Peter Ryan writes for afl.com.au and the AFL Record. Follow him on Twitter at @pet_ryan
