THE FINAL game to decide who will face off in the 2025 AFLW Grand Final is an enticing return fixture at Brighton Homes Arena.

Both Brisbane and Carlton have enjoyed some high highs since they met back in round three, and although their last head-to-head battle was just three months ago, a lot has changed.

Where and when: Brighton Homes Arena, Saturday November 22nd, 6:35pm AEST

Head-to-head: Brisbane – three wins, Carlton – three wins, one draw

Last time they met: Carlton 9.4 (58) def. Brisbane 6.8 (44), round three, 2025

Carlton put on five goals in the second quarter to establish a winning margin, headlined by a Goal of the Year finalist from Keeley Sherar. The Blues launched the bulk of their scoring opportunities from intercepts thanks to strong performances from Harriet Cordner (eight intercepts) and Dayna Finn (29 disposals, 12 intercepts), while Tara Bohanna kicked three goals to establish herself within the Carlton attacking system. Brisbane was still working to smooth out the new aspects of its gameplan, and did in fact win the inside 50 count 49-31, but was simply inefficient once in attack.

KEY MATCH-UP

Dakota Davidson v Harriet Cordner

In Brisbane's qualifying final win over Melbourne, Davidson played with a confidence that hasn't otherwise been seen this year. Her stat sheet might only say one goal, but her ability to set up the Lions' attack and get the small things – smothers, running patterns, bringing teammates in – absolutely right. Cordner, meanwhile, has been in fine form, not only with intercepts/rebounds, but in shutting down direct opponents.

When these sides played off back in round three, these two played on one-another, and it was arguably a nil-all draw. This time around, both will be crucial to their respective team's fortunes once again. If Davidson can really occupy Cordner and make her defend the one-on-ones, rather than set up the backline, that takes away a real asset for the Blues. But if Cordner can shut down Davidson's attacking influence, there is a whole lot of pressure that then falls squarely on the shoulders of Taylor Smith.

WHERE IT WILL BE WON

The most notable thing coming into this game is momentum early in the piece. Last week Carlton put on 31 points in the opening quarter, effectively putting the game out of touch by the first break, while Brisbane was susceptible to a strong first term in its qualifying final, and then had to wrestle its way back into the contest. The Blues will be undoubtedly focused on starting the game with a similar intensity as they did last Saturday evening.

In terms of clearance, both sides are on par, but centre stoppage dominance was a large part of Carlton's early attack last week, as Abbie McKay and Mimi Hill got their hands on plenty of front-side clearances and propelled the ball forward. The midfield battle will be a fascinating one, with McKay and Hill supported by Lily Goss and Maddy Guerin in the navy blue, while the Lions boast the reliable trio of Ally Anderson, Belle Dawes, and Cathy Svarc, while the injection of Charlie Mullins into stoppage in recent games has been a neat addition of class to the mix.

The Lions average 11.4 inside 50s more than their opponents this year, proving that strong territory game, but then it becomes a matter of efficiency. In that round three game where they fell to the Blues, the Lions were able to generate a shot on goal from just 30.6 per cent of their forward entries, but their season average is a far more reliable 45.8 per cent. Carlton's defence will need to lock it up and minimise that number once again.

PREDICTION

The Lions will end Carlton's fairytale run. Brisbane by four points.

A THIRD-QUARTER avalanche has ensured Brisbane will play its fourth straight Grand Final - and third on the trot against North Melbourne - with a commanding 35-point win over Carlton on Saturday night.

With the game in the balance at half-time, the Lions slammed on five goals in a frenzied 10-minute burst to rubber stamp the 10.7 (67) to 5.2 (32) win in front of 6511 vocal spectators at Brighton Homes Arena.

LIONS v BLUES Full match coverage and stats

It ensures a tiebreaker in the Lions-Kangaroos trilogy at Ikon Park next Saturday, with Craig Starcevich’s team winning in 2023 and Darren Crocker’s last year.

It will be Brisbane’s seventh Grand Final in the competition’s 10th season.

Understated small forward Ruby Svarc was Brisbane’s hero, kicking a career-high four goals – three of them when the game was up for grabs - before her dynamic forward line teammates joined the party.

Dakota Davidson kicked two, including one remarkable finish from the right boundary line, as did Ellie Hampson, while Belle Dawes (24 disposals and seven tackles), Jade Ellenger (12 intercepts) and Tahlia Hickie (16 and five clearances) also had big influences.

The tidal wave of goals early in the third quarter that broke the game open began with a Svarc checkside for her third goal.

She then used a clever sidestep and nifty pass to Courtney Hodder for another goal moments later, before Davidson kicked her freakish right foot effort from deep in the pocket.

Hampson kicked the first of her two for the term after standout Carlton defender Harriet Cordner was pinged for deliberately rushing a behind, and when Davidson kicked truly from 45m, the game was effectively over.

Brisbane had dominated large periods of the opening half without having the score to show, often fumbling and rushing their disposals under the Blues’ pressure.

Carlton kicked the only goal of the first quarter through Dayna Finn following some slick ball movement.

The Lions finally capitalised on their field position in the second term through two goals to the hard-working Svarc, but young Blues star Poppy Scholz kept her team in the match with two of her own.

Brisbane led by just five points at the main break.

They were dealt a setback midway through the term when reliable defender Shannon Campbell was temporarily taken from the field.

In typical courageous fashion, Campbell backed into oncoming traffic under a high ball, only to receive a knee in the back from the oncoming Scholz.

She returned after half-time to play out the match, as Brisbane got its outside game going in the third quarter.

Carlton never stopped trying, but struggled to get into the game as the Lions had the better of the game in-tight and were then able to overwhelm their opponents on the outside.

Cordner was fantastic in defence, while Finn (23 and two goals) and Maddy Guerin (21) were also highly involved.

A night to remember for Ruby
So often Ruby Svarc is the hard-working Brisbane small forward that goes without reward on the scoreboard. But not tonight. In her previous 56 AFLW games, Svarc had never kicked more than two goals, but in this preliminary final, she booted four – and when her team needed them. With the Lions dominating field position but unable to kick goals, it was Svarc who got her teammates and the crowd going with two majors in a five-minute second quarter burst. Then, at the start of the second half she kicked a checkside for her third, laid on a goal for Courtney Hodder and then iced the game with her fourth in the final quarter.

The off-field banter made it on-field
From the moment Sophie McKay said “we’re comin’ for ya” following Carlton’s semi-final win over Hawthorn, the teams exchanged light-hearted barbs during the week in an entertaining build-up. Belle Dawes bit back during a press conference, holding up a cardboard cutout of her screaming face saying: “come to Brighton Homes Arena, we’re pumped for it”. The game was played in good spirit and Ellie Hampson shared her own cheeky goal celebration during the third quarter. After kicking her first, she grabbed her shoulder and then did a shimmy – just as McKay did following a goal last week. Post-game, Starcevich denied using McKay's banter as fuel for his charges, instead complimenting the fiery forward:"I think Sophie is great for the game. That stuff about not being fazed about who you play or what state you’re going to … that’s fantastic for our game and fantastic for AFLW. The more Sophie McKays in the comp the better I think." 

Up next
For the third straight year it’s a Brisbane and North Melbourne Grand Final at Ikon Park next Saturday. It wasn’t the finish Carlton wanted, but it can be incredibly proud of the progress in 2025, getting all the way to the penultimate weekend.

BRISBANE     0.3       3.5       9.6       10.7 (67)
CARLTON      1.0       3.0       4.0        5.2 (32)

GOALS
Brisbane: R.Svarc 4, Davidson 2, Hampson 2, Hodder, Smith
Carlton: Scholz 2, Finn 2, S.McKay

BEST 
Brisbane: R.Svarc, Hodder, Ellenger, Dawes, Hickie, Hampson
Carlton: Cordner, Finn, Guerin, Hill 

INJURIES 
Brisbane: Nil
Carlton: Nil

Reports: Nil

Crowd: 6511 at Brighton Homes Arena