GEELONG, Carlton and Greater Western Sydney face brutal five-game stretches that are set to put their premiership credentials under the blowtorch.
The Cats (6-0), Blues (5-1) and Giants (5-1) have made strong starts to 2024, but are looking at difficult runs ahead of round 12, when the mid-season byes begin.
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The average ladder position of Geelong's next five opponents is 5.8 – the most difficult in the competition – with four of their upcoming opponents currently sitting in the top eight.
Geelong will take on Carlton and Melbourne at the MCG, host Port Adelaide at GMHBA Stadium, make the trip to Darwin to face Gold Coast before a game at home against Greater Western Sydney.
Having played North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Adelaide and St Kilda in their opening six games, the average ladder position of the Cats' first six opponents was 13.8, the easiest in the AFL.
Carlton's next five games are against teams with an average ladder position of 6, which is the equal second most difficult run.
Three of those outings are against top-eight sides in Geelong, Melbourne and Sydney, and another is against reigning premier Collingwood.
The Giants also face a difficult run, taking on the Swans, Essendon, the Western Bulldogs and the Cats in four of their next five.
Port Adelaide faces the easiest run in the League, with their next five opponents having an average ladder position of 12.8.
While the Cats had the easiest opening six games of any club, Adelaide (average ladder position of 6.3) had the most difficult.
Each club's degree of difficulty is the average ladder position of its opponents. The lower the score, the harder the fixture is expected to be
R7: v North Melbourne, Blundstone Arena
R8: v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
R9: v Brisbane, Adelaide Oval
R10: v Collingwood, MCG
R11: v West Coast, Adelaide Oval
Current ladder position: 15th (1-5)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 6.3 (Hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 11.8 (15th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 1
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 9.5 (Equal ninth hardest)
After facing the hardest start in the competition, the Crows have a friendlier run in their next five. Adelaide plays strugglers North Melbourne and West Coast in rounds seven and 11 respectively, although the three games in the middle are somewhat tricky. After a Showdown, the Crows face Brisbane at home and make the trip to the MCG to take on Collingwood. They have a good opportunity with three of their next five at Adelaide Oval.
R7: v Greater Western Sydney, Manuka Oval
R8: v Gold Coast, Gabba
R9: v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
R10: v Richmond, Gabba
R11: v Hawthorn, Marvel Stadium
Current ladder position: 12th (2-4)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 8 (Third hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 12.4 (17th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 1
Upcoming interstate trips: 3
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 8 (Equal sixth hardest)
The Lions failed their test to start the campaign, but they still have an opportunity to well and truly get their season on track. The Giants in Canberra will be tricky, but they then have winnable games against Gold Coast (home) and Adelaide (away) before clashes against Richmond and Hawthorn, where they will go in as hot favourites.
R7: v Geelong, MCG
R8: v Collingwood, MCG
R9: v Melbourne, MCG
R10: v Sydney, SCG
R11: v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium
Current ladder position: 4th (5-1)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 12.2 (16th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 6 (Equal second hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 3
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 7.3 (Equal third hardest)
While they are in a great position at 5-1, the Blues face the equal hardest run across the next five games. The positive is only one of the five is interstate, and the next three are at the MCG, where they will take on Geelong, Collingwood and Melbourne. A tricky trip to the SCG to take on the Swans follows before they host Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium.
R7: v Essendon, MCG
R8: v Carlton, MCG
R9: v West Coast, Marvel Stadium
R10: v Adelaide, MCG
R11: v Fremantle, Optus Stadium
Current ladder position: 10th (3-3)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 8.7 (Fifth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 9.8 (Equal ninth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 10.8 (14th hardest)
Beginning to hit top form in their premiership defence, the Magpies get a chance to keep their run going across the next five weeks. After the Anzac Day blockbuster, Collingwood meets old rival Carlton. Then, it hosts the Eagles at Marvel Stadium and the Crows at the MCG before making the trip west to visit Fremantle.
R7: v Collingwood, MCG
R8: v West Coast, Optus Stadium
R9: v Greater Western Sydney, Marvel Stadium
R10: v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
R11: v Richmond, MCG
Current ladder position: 7th (4-2)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 10 (10th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 12.2 (16th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 1
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 7.5 (Fifth hardest)
After making a good start to the season, the Bombers' next five are, on paper, the 16th hardest in the competition. That's because three of those are against teams in the bottom five in West Coast (Optus Stadium), North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium) and Richmond (MCG). The other two are trickier, against Collingwood on Anzac Day and in round nine against the Giants.
R7: v Western Bulldogs, Optus Stadium
R8: v Richmond, MCG
R9: v Sydney, Optus Stadium
R10: v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
R11: v Collingwood, Optus Stadium
Current ladder position: 9th (3-3)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 11.3 (14th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 9.8 (Equal ninth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 6.8 (Hardest)
Having played North Melbourne and West Coast in their opening six games, the Dockers had the 14th hardest fixture through that period. They have an opportunity to get their season back on track after three straight losses. Fremantle hosts the Bulldogs, Swans and Pies in that period, along with trips to Victoria to take on Richmond and St Kilda.
R7: v Carlton, MCG
R8: v Melbourne, MCG
R9: v Port Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium
R10: v Gold Coast, TIO Stadium
R11: v Greater Western Sydney, GMHBA Stadium
Current ladder position: 1st (6-0)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 13.8 (18th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 5.8 (Hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 4
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 7.3 (Equal third hardest)
After getting the easiest opening six games of the season (Geelong played four of the current bottom six), the Cats face the hardest run in the next five, with two of those matches at GMHBA Stadium. Geelong meets two finals aspirants at the MCG in its next two with clashes against Carlton and Melbourne, before welcoming Port Adelaide to GMHBA Stadium. It then heads to Darwin to take on the Suns before returning home for a big meeting with the Giants.
R7: v West Coast, People First Stadium
R8: v Brisbane, Gabba
R9: v North Melbourne, TIO Stadium
R10: v Geelong, TIO Stadium
R11: v Carlton, Marvel Stadium
Current ladder position: 11th (3-3)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 10.2 (11th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 9.8 (Equal ninth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 4
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 9.8 (Equal 11th hardest)
The Suns had a relatively comfortable start to the season and things don't get too much harder. This run of five games features two in Darwin, against North Melbourne and Geelong. They also have West Coast at home before a QClash against the Lions. A trip to Marvel Stadium to face the Blues in round 11 wraps up this five-game stretch.
R7: v Brisbane, Manuka Oval
R8: v Sydney, SCG
R9: v Essendon, Marvel Stadium
R10: v Western Bulldogs, Engie Stadium
R11: v Geelong, GMHBA Stadium
Current ladder position: 3rd (5-1)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 11.7 (15th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 6 (Equal second hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 4
Upcoming interstate trips: 3
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 9.8 (Equal 11th hardest)
The Giants played North Melbourne and West Coast in their opening six games, but face a tougher run across their next five. Matches against Brisbane and Sydney are followed by a trip to Marvel Stadium to take on the Bombers before they host the Bulldogs. Then, it's a tricky trip to GMHBA Stadium to meet the Cats.
R7: v Sydney, MCG
R8: v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium
R9: v St Kilda, UTAS Stadium
R10: v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
R11: v Brisbane, Marvel Stadium
Current ladder position: 17th (1-5)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 8.8 (Sixth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 8 (Fourth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 3
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 12 (15th hardest)
After getting a win on the board on Sunday, the Hawks are set for a few testing matches. They face a tough run in their next five, beginning with a clash against the Swans. They meet the Bulldogs and Saints before a trip to the Adelaide Oval to take on the Power, with Brisbane visiting them at Marvel Stadium in round 11.
R7: v Richmond, MCG
R8: v Geelong, MCG
R9: v Carlton, MCG
R10: v West Coast, Optus Stadium
R11: v St Kilda, MCG
Current ladder position: 6th (4-2)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 9.8 (Equal eighth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 9.6 (Eighth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 12.3 (Equal 16th hardest)
Melbourne's first six games were rated the equal eighth hardest, and more winnable games await, with four of their next five at the MCG. The Demons take on the Tigers, Cats and Blues prior to a trip west to meet the Eagles, before returning to the 'G for a clash with the Saints.
R7: v Adelaide, Blundstone Arena
R8: v St Kilda, Marvel Stadium
R9: v Gold Coast, TIO Stadium
R10: v Essendon, Marvel Stadium
R11: v Port Adelaide, Blundstone Arena
Current ladder position: 18th (0-6)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 7.7 (Second hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 10.2 (13th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 3
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 9.5 (Equal ninth hardest)
It has been a tough start for the Kangaroos, with the Giants, Blues and Cats among their first six opponents. A friendlier run awaits. They will take on Adelaide in Tasmania before facing the Saints, with a trip to Darwin to tackle the Suns following those two matches. The Roos then face the Bombers before another trip to Tassie to take on the Power.
R7: v St Kilda, Adelaide Oval
R8: v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
R9: v Geelong, GMHBA Stadium
R10: v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval
R11: v North Melbourne, Blundstone Arena
Current ladder position: 5th (4-2)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 10.3 (12th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 12.8 (18th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 1
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 8 (Equal sixth hardest)
The Power's opening six games were not among the most difficult in the League and they also have a friendly next five. Three of those are at Adelaide Oval – against the Saints, the Showdown and the Hawks, with their two trips coming to Geelong and Tasmania, where they meet the Kangaroos.
R7: v Melbourne, MCG
R8: v Fremantle, MCG
R9: v Western Bulldogs, MCG
R10: v Brisbane, Gabba
R11: v Essendon, MCG
Current ladder position: 16th (1-5)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 9.8 (Equal eighth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 8.4 (Sixth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 3
Upcoming interstate trips: 1
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 9.3 (Eighth hardest)
The injury-hit Tigers faced a relatively tough start to the campaign and their run doesn't get any easier. The positive is that four of their next five games are at the MCG, where they will face the Demons, Dockers, Bulldogs and Bombers. The other outing is a very difficult trip to the Gabba to take on the Lions.
R7: v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
R8: v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium
R9: v Hawthorn, UTAS Stadium
R10: v Fremantle, Marvel Stadium
R11: v Melbourne, MCG
Current ladder position: 13th (2-4)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 9 (Seventh hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 11 (14th hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 10.5 (13th hardest)
The Saints have had their chances in the opening six rounds, but sit at 2-4 ahead of a run of winnable matches. A trip to Adelaide to take on the Power will be tough, but they then host the Kangaroos and take on the Hawks in Tasmania. Ross Lyon's former team, Fremantle, visits Marvel Stadium in round 10 before a big clash against the Demons at the MCG.
R7: v Hawthorn, MCG
R8: v Greater Western Sydney, SCG
R9: v Fremantle, Optus Stadium
R10: v Carlton, SCG
R11: v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium
Current ladder position: 2nd (5-1)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 12.8 (17th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 8.2 (Fifth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 3
Upcoming interstate trips: 3
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 7 (Second hardest)
After their opening six games included meetings with the Eagles and Tigers, a trickier run follows for the Swans, although their round seven meeting is with the struggling Hawks at the MCG. After that, there's a blockbuster derby against the Giants, a trip west to take on the Dockers, the Blues at the SCG and the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium.
R7: v Gold Coast, People First Stadium
R8: v Essendon, Optus Stadium
R9: v Collingwood, Marvel Stadium
R10: v Melbourne, Optus Stadium
R11: v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval
Current ladder position: 14th (2-4)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 8.6 (Fourth hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 9.8 (Equal ninth hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 3
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 13.8 (18th hardest)
The Eagles have faced a difficult start to 2024, taking on the Power, Giants and Swans in their opening six games. They look like having greater opportunities to add to the wins column in coming weeks, although they face three interstate trips. After taking on the Suns, the Eagles host the Bombers and Demons either side of a trip to Marvel Stadium to meet the Magpies. Round 11 sees them make a tough trip to face the Crows.
R7: v Fremantle, Optus Stadium
R8: v Hawthorn, Marvel Stadium
R9: v Richmond, MCG
R10: v Greater Western Sydney, Engie Stadium
R11: v Sydney, Marvel Stadium
Current ladder position: 8th (3-3)
Degree of difficulty OR-R6: 10.4 (13th hardest)
Degree of difficulty R7-11: 9.4 (Seventh hardest)
Upcoming games against current top eight: 2
Upcoming interstate trips: 2
Degree of difficulty R12-16: 12.3 (Equal 16th hardest)
The Bulldogs' opening six games have proven to be somewhat harder than anticipated. Now, they face the struggling Hawks and Tigers in two of their next five, after a trip west to take on the Dockers. Then, it's the Giants at Engie Stadium and Swans at Marvel Stadium in two important games.
