IT ALL comes down to this.
With two wildcard finals already locked in, the fate of four teams - Brisbane, Hawthorn, Geelong and Adelaide - will come down to the final game of the 2026 home and away season, between the Hawks and West Coast.
Saturday's results finalised the wildcard games, with Melbourne to host Carlton and the Western Bulldogs to play Collingwood, with both games to be at the MCG next weekend. The dates and times of these games are set to be announced on Sunday.
LADDER PREDICTORÂ Who will make the top six, who'll play a wildcard final?
Brisbane is likely to finish third, although they could be overtaken by the Hawks on percentage, while the Cats and Crows will be hoping for a Hawks loss on Sunday night.
Read on for all the permutations heading into the final day of the home and away season.
Editor's note: The below does not include the Saints v Suns, Bombers v Power or Swans v Kangaroos games as they are not relevant to the make-up of the top 10.
Friday, August 21
Collingwood 15.6 (96) lost to Brisbane 25.9 (159)
- Brisbane has likely sewn up third spot on the ladder and cannot drop out of the top four
- The Lions have extended their percentage lead over Hawthorn (+4.4), and look likely to play Sydney in a qualifying final at the SCG
- However, if the Hawks win and overtake the Lions on percentage, the Lions will drop to fourth and play Fremantle in a qualifying final at Optus Stadium. But the Hawks would have to win by more than 90 points against the Eagles to secure third spot
- The Magpies will finish ninth and play the Bulldogs in a wildcard final
Saturday, August 22
Carlton 18.11 (119) def Fremantle 12.10 (82)
- Carlton will finish 10th and play a wildcard final against Melbourne
- The result has not impacted Fremantle's finishing position. The Dockers will finish first and likely play Hawthorn in a qualifying final
- The Dockers could also play the Lions or Cats, depending on the result of the Eagles v Hawks game
Melbourne 12.15 (87) lost to Western Bulldogs 16.12 (108)
- The Bulldogs will finish eighth and play a wildcard final against Collingwood at the MCG
- The Demons have fallen to seventh and will play a wildcard final against Carlton at the MCG
Geelong 20.13 (133) def Richmond 11.10 (76)
- The Cats have secured a top-six finish and a weekend off
- If the Hawks lose to the Eagles on Sunday night, the Cats will finish fourth and play a qualifying final against Fremantle in Perth
- If the Hawks beat the Eagles, the Cats will finish fifth and host an elimination final
Adelaide 24.13 (157) def Greater Western Sydney 15.11 (101)
- The Crows have secured a top-six finish and a weekend off
- If the Hawks lose to the Eagles on Sunday night, the Crows will finish fifth
- Both the Crows and Hawks currently have a percentage of 117.3, with the Crows marginally ahead on the second decimal point. A loss for the Hawks against the Eagles would see their percentage drop below Adelaide's
Sunday, August 23
West Coast v Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, 5.20pm AWST
If the Eagles win ...
- The Hawks would stay in sixth and host an elimination final after a week off
If the Hawks win ...
- They would guarantee a top-four spot and an away qualifying final
- After the Lions' win over the Magpies, the Hawks are likely to play the Dockers in Perth in their qualifying final
- The Hawks could jump to third despite the Lions' win, but they would need to make up 4.4 per cent on Brisbane
- How much the Hawks would need to win by to move ahead of the Lions depends on how many points the Eagles score. If the Eagles hit their 2026 average of 71 points, the Hawks would need to win 168-71 to move past the Lions.
- Other possible scorelines for Hawthorn are 130-40, 142-50 and 154-60
