AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at the young Pies driving them to finals, why Richmond should give Scott Pendlebury a call and more in Cal-culations
FINALS-BOUND BLUES NEED LOOK NO MORE
CARLTON could make its coaching decision as soon as this week. The decision is staring the Blues in the face, wearing a hoodie.
The Blues have maintained throughout the second half of the season they wanted to make a decision before the end of the 'minor rounds' of the year.
And after Sunday's draw with the Western Bulldogs, there is more to come for Carlton after locking in a top-10 berth with a round to play.
Josh Fraser now has a 10 win, two loss and one draw record in his 13 games as coach after taking over from Michael Voss in May, and the unflappable former Collingwood ruckman has turned the Blues into one of the most watchable teams in the competition.
The Blues are drama and that was on show on Sunday afternoon, with Francis Evans' late goal levelling the scores and some big efforts in the final minutes, including from Harry Dean, Blake Acres and Sam Walsh, seeing Carlton hold on for the draw. As soon as the siren sounded, Carlton players celebrated like it was a win, knowing it confirms their spot in the wildcard round.
Fraser informally told the Blues weeks ago he wanted in for their coaching process and interviewed for the job in the middle of last week, although his interview has been in public for the past three months.
The Blues have strategically managed their coaching process impeccably and Fraser has been a big part of that – their 'stepping out before stepping in' narrative worked wonders and allowed the Blues to produce a miraculous turnaround in form.
As Essendon has slowed down in its final stage of its process – it had its last interview with candidates 10 days ago – Carlton is speeding towards a resolution and Fraser is ready for the task.
'FLY'S FINDS' CENTRAL TO PIE RISE
COLLINGWOOD coach Craig McRae reeled off the names set to come back in the next few weeks for the Pies after their draw with Hawthorn.
There was Brayden Maynard, Pat Lipinski, Harry Perryman, Jeremy Howe and also Steele Sidebottom, who was out with illness against the Hawks days after announcing his retirement.
The Magpies are clearly better with these players in than out, but their run of form over the past two months has shown that Collingwood's plan to balance out experience with youth is working.
Sam Swadling's emergence as a top young talent took another step on Saturday night with 29 disposals, a stack of smart ball use and a loss-stopping spoil on the goal line at the end, and the first-year Pie has rejuvenated their midfield mix alongside Nick Daicos.
Ed Allan's late kick didn't land but he had 28 disposals and a goal in a strong game, while Angus Anderson (one goal, 12 disposals), Will Hayes, Charlie West and Roan Steele (two goals each) and tall Noah Howes all did their bit as well.
Collingwood is the competition's highest-profile team and biggest club, and it is its batch of new unknowns who have added an exuberance to their second-half-of-the-season rise, where they have won seven (and captured a draw) in their past nine games to secure a finals position.
The lesson for Collingwood across the past two months is that new faces shouldn't be viewed as a temporary fix. They are an asset.
Injuries and absences forced Collingwood into a position where it had little choice but to expose some of its younger talent, but those players have helped shift the Pies' way rather than just be holding replacements.
The Magpies shouldn't fear putting trust in players with less experience because necessity has proven them to be valued.
September selection is likely to rule in favour of the experienced guns McRae knows and trusts, but beyond that as the Pies shop hard for extra midfield stardom, including a club record offer for Zak Butters and free agent Lachie Neale, the 11 players who were 23 and under against Hawthorn showed there is an emerging group already there.
And as Collingwood prepares for another September campaign, its greatest discovery might not be the stars returning to the line-up, but the confidence it has gained in the players who forced their way into it and will be hard to leave out.
TIGERS SHOULD JOIN PENDLES QUEUE
SATURDAY was another reminder of the leadership vacuum on its way at Punt Road.
Nathan Broad, who has played the role of a captain without the title in recent years, is going back to Western Australia. Dion Prestia wants to play on elsewhere but has joined Broad in departing Richmond with the pair playing their last games in yellow and black in Saturday's heavy loss to St Kilda.
Tom Lynch is going on again next year on a one-year deal and there remain senior players such as Nick Vlastuin and Jayden Short, plus a gun midfielder in Tim Taranto.
But it's clear the Tigers already look to Sam Lalor as a leader, which is doubtless a title he will hold in time but not one he needs yet as he focuses on playing regular football.
It is one reason the Tigers have thrown the kitchen sink, fridge, cabinets, bowls, plates and everything else in the vicinity at Zak Butters – he would walk in and be Richmond's captain next year.
But putting that aside, the Tigers need to find more experienced leaders to help shepherd through this next group.
Like Essendon has been targeting (so far unsuccessfully) experienced leaders at a cheap rate, Richmond should be asking the same questions.
The Tigers should be making the call to Scott Pendlebury.
Pendlebury is weighing up what to do next year and will make a decision at the end of the season, but Gold Coast and Essendon have already been among the clubs to have enquired and tested the waters. The Bombers have been ruled out as a chance for Pendlebury.
The Tigers could do far worse than asking the question and to be in the market as the VFL/AFL record games holder considers what he does in 2027.
NORTH READY TO RISE
EVERY year there is a team that pops from the middle rungs of the ladder to jump into the finals mix.
This year it has been the Dees, who have jumped from 14th on the ladder last season to be entrenched in the top six. It was Adelaide the year before, climbing from 15th to first. In 2024, the Cats leapt from 12th to third, and Port Adelaide rose from 11th in 2022 to third in 2023.
Collingwood, going back to 2022, made a stark jump from 17th in 2021 to fourth in 2022.
Next year, North has what it takes to make that leap.
A 10th win this year was on the cards when the Kangaroos got out to a 39-point lead early in the second term, however that jolted Geelong into action and they had taken back the lead by half-time.
But North kept coming until the final moments, even without key playmaker Harry Sheezel with a suspected broken cheekbone, and though they left Marvel Stadium in defeat, the Roos should have taken credits from the performance.
They will be outsiders in next week's season-closing clash with Sydney, but the Roos have made strides this year. And another pre-season of everybody's favourite player George Wardlaw, top pick Finn O'Sullivan, super find Cooper Trembath and more should help some natural evolution of a North side that will have top-eight aspirations in 2027. And so they should.
The Roos have designs on a key defender in the upcoming trade period, including real interest in Adelaide's Nick Murray and work being done on Essendon's Jordan Ridley. Combining that with one more top-10 draft pick should have their list build ready to even out. Then it is over to them to take the requisite jump.
TOBY OR NOT TO BE A FAREWELL?
THE OFF Broadway nature of Greater Western Sydney has made it easy for Toby Greene to get through this season able to fob off questions about his future.
But if he's leaving the Giants at the end of this year, the Giants should be given a chance to celebrate their greatest ever player in their final game this weekend.
Greene has been able to deflect questions about his future through the season as he weighs up a return to Victoria – and specifically a future at Geelong – against the three-year offer on the table at the Giants for months.
There are benefits to being out of the traditional footy state bubbles and Greene has been able to put off his contract talks to the end of the season and have two clubs wait on his decision with it going relatively under the radar in comparison to some of the major contract decisions pending.
Even compared to the four captains who either left or wanted to leave their clubs last year – Zach Merrett, Jack Steele, Jy Simpkin and Oscar Allen – Greene's call has captured none of the same discussion.
The free agent will be 33 in September and his Giants offer is worth around $2 million, running until he is 36. He has played 280 games and is already the leading games record holder for GWS and one of their remaining inaugurals.
But he does have a family pull to Victoria and whenever his time at the Giants finishes – be it this contract or the next - is expected to return home.
The Giants' last home game was against West Coast on Sunday so that marker has already gone without any clarity on his call. They play Adelaide at Adelaide Oval next Saturday to finish their frustrating 2026 campaign.
Greene has the right to choose whatever he wants to do, and by all accounts he is still deciding. But it would be a shame for him not to be able to farewell the Giants knowingly, if he takes that path.
DIMMA OFF TRAC
DAMIEN Hardwick's owning of Gold Coast's plight has been as public as a coach has been about his team's downfall in recent times.
Last week ahead of the Suns' win over Greater Western Sydney, Hardwick was as honest as any coach has been this season.
"I haven't had a great year personally. I've gone away a little bit from my philosophies and what they look like. But once again the best sort of reflection is self-reflection and I lay the blame firmly with me and about what I was trying to see with the game evolving," he said.
He followed that on Saturday by saying Christian Petracca's recent form drop was due to Hardwick's indecision about how to use him best.
"I've got to find how I can best use him. That's up to me to figure it out," he said after the Suns' QClash loss to Brisbane. "I've got to get better at utilising him to his absolute strength. I haven't found that right lever yet."
Earlier this year, Ken Hinkley said Gold Coast's struggles were in part due to 'BDO' – big dog overload – and finding the balance in the midfield would be the challenge to overcome given the star-studded group in there.
Petracca was the No.1 rated player in the competition at the halfway point of the season but the Suns' mix hasn't prevailed this year.
Hardwick is clearly taking ownership for the Suns' failings this season in a similar way that Richmond owned where it was at at the end of 2016, changed their game style as well as their off-field approach and saw the benefits. Hardwick will enter 2027 – his fourth year of a six-year deal with the Suns – under pressure to get it right.
