THIS year's Telstra AFL Rising Star race has an eclectic list of frontrunners that could take home the coveted award on Tuesday night.

The resurgent Carlton has the two top contenders with Jagga Smith the favourite after missing his debut season with a knee injury, and gun father-son teammate Harry Dean close behind.

No.1 draft pick Willem Duursma has justified his selection with an impressive season at West Coast where he missed just one game, while teammate Jobe Shanahan played every match and has staked his claim as the standout emerging key forward.

Then there's North Melbourne's 2025 mid-season draftee Cooper Trembath who has become a focal point in attack for the Roos, and the trio of Jacob Farrow, Sullivan Robey and Dyson Sharp who look guaranteed to lead the Bombers' midfield for years to come.

While Smith is at short odds, there have been surprises in the past, so who do our reporters think is going to win: the red-hot Blue or a smokey outsider?

Damian Barrett

5 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
4 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
3 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)
2 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
1 - Jobe Shanahan (West Coast)

Why Jagga Smith should win: Smith had an extraordinary "debut" season, and was as crucial as any Carlton player in the club's incredible surge, after a 1-8 start, to a wildcard final. Combined old-fashioned footy smarts with new age tricks to gel beautifully with the midfield stalwarts, Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh.

Gemma Bastiani

5 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
4 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
3 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
2 - Phoenix Gothard (Greater Western Sydney)
1 - Jobe Shanahan (West Coast)

Why Jagga Smith should win: Playing in the midfield of a team that has the eyes of the world peering in on it can be tough at the best of times, let alone when riding the tumultuous bumps of a coach's departure. But Jagga Smith has taken that challenge on with aplomb and has been somewhat of a barometer for what Carlton has been able to achieve this year. Averaging 24.9 disposals and 4.3 clearances, he is an important presence in the Blues' midfield after just one year, off the back of an ACL injury no less.

Riley Beveridge

5 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
4 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
3 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
2 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)
1 - Jobe Shanahan (West Coast)

Why Jagga Smith should win: No had the moves like Jagga this season. Put the heartbreak of 2025 behind him immediately and looked like a player that hadn't missed a beat. He was prolific, he won his own footy, yet he also had the craftiness and creativity that Carlton has long lacked through its midfield whenever the ball was in his hands. He was arguably the Blues' most damaging player during their remarkable turnaround in form in the second half of the season, highlighting just how influential he already is to this side's fortunes. In any other year, teammate Harry Dean would be a worthy winner, but Smith was too good too often for Carlton this season.

Sarah Black

5 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
4 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
3 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
2 - Ty Gallop (Brisbane)
1 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)

Why Jagga Smith should win: In terms of sheer consistency of strong performances, few can match Smith's record in 2026. The second-year Carlton midfielder has rebounded from his torn ACL in stunning style, averaging 24.9 disposals and 4.3 clearances a game, and kicking eight goals in the process. He has been a clear point of difference for the Blues, and few have been able to match his speed out of the contest for a full four quarters.

Nat Edwards

5 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
4 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
3 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
2 - Jobe Shanahan (West Coast)
1 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)

Why Harry Dean should win: It could be a slightly controversial call given Jagga Smith will win this year's award, in all likelihood, but Carlton father-son Harry Dean has had a spectacular season. Don't get me wrong, Smith has also been incredible coming back from an ACL injury and having significant impact in the midfield. But Dean is just ahead for me, given he plays in a more challenging position. It is rare that a first-year player has to bed down such an important key defensive role so early on in their career, and with vice-captain Jacob Weitering missing for sections of the season, it makes what Dean has done even more impressive because he had to do it against the best key forwards in the game.

Josh Gabelich

5 - Jagga Smith
4 - Harry Dean
3 - Willem Duursma
2 - Cooper Trembath
1 - Jobe Shanahan

Why Jagga Smith should win: Clearly the most consistent performer of the crop. Impacted key games for Carlton across his first full season. What a response after his first season in the AFL was wiped out before it started due to a knee reconstruction. Smith is integral to this fairytale run under Josh Fraser. 

Emily Patterson

5 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
4 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
3 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
2 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)
1 - Jobe Shanahan (West Coast)

Why Jagga Smith should win: The strongest Rising Star campaigns typically combine three elements: sustained performance, genuine responsibility, and direct influence at the AFL level. Jagga Smith ticks all three boxes. Launching into his debut season after a serious knee injury delayed his start in the AFL, the balanced inside-outside midfielder instantly justified the hype around him by claiming an early nomination. Thrust straight into Carlton’s engine room, he has consistently delivered 20-plus disposals, elite clean hands, and unshakeable poise against seasoned opponents. Far from simply holding his spot, Smith’s ability to shape games elevates him from a promising talent into a genuine star in the making.

Joel Peterson

5 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
4 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
3 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
2 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)
1 - Phoenix Gothard

Why Harry Dean should win: Jagga Smith has electrified fans in the final weeks of the season and Willem Duursma has the best highlight reel of any eligible player, but what Harry Dean has been asked to do - and how he’s handled his business - makes him the pick here. The combative young defender was thrown into the deep end for a battling Blues team, assumed the number one lockdown role when Jacob Weitering got injured and took it all in his stride. He’s a pillar of the Blues for both down the road and the postseason campaign that’s just around the corner. 

Nathan Schmook

5 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
4 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
3 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
2 - Jobe Shanahan (West Coast)
1 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)

Why Jagga Smith should win: As undoubtedly the best performed player in this year's pool, it has been Smith's impact in a stunning Carlton surge to a wildcard spot that has best highlighted his match-winning attributes. Clean, composed and smart as an accumulating midfielder, he has not faded deep into the season as a young player might and hits finals as a key player in the Blues' engine room. Statistically, Smith has more direct goal assists (13) than any Blues midfielder this season and ranks No.3 at the club for score involvements (149). It has simply been a stunning return from a devastating ACL injury in his first season. Duursma was a major challenger through the year but lost momentum with some quiet performances as his team battled during a losing streak, while Shanahan's aerial highlights have confirmed his status as a future star of the competition.

Callum Twomey

5 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
4 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
3 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
2 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)
1 - Jobe Shanahan (West Coast)

Why Jagga Smith should win: A gun footballer – plain and simple. The pre-season lock for the Rising Star has turned out to be the end of year lock. Everything Smith has touched has turned to gold through this season and his second half of the season in particular showed off the most damaging elements of his game. Edges out teammate Harry Dean by virtue of his brilliant consistency and in being a key figure in the Blues' second half of the season turnaround.

Michael Whiting

5 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
4 - Harry Dean (Carlton) 
3 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
2 - Leo Lombard (Gold Coast)
1 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)

Why Smith should win: It feels almost silly to leave Sullivan Robey and Jobe Shanahan out, but hence is the strength of another fantastic crop of Rising Star nominees. Smith deserves to win this year though for not only his consistency across a full season, but his ability to shape Carlton’s charge into the top 10 in the second half of the year. He quickly adapted to the level against bigger bodies and not only won his own ball, but was an excellent decision maker and user in space. Dean was ultra impressive, particularly once the Blues protected their defence with better ball movement and the sky is the limit for Duursma.

TOTAL

53 - Jagga Smith (Carlton)
45 - Harry Dean (Carlton)
33 - Willem Duursma (West Coast)
17 - Cooper Trembath (North Melbourne)
10 - Jobe Shanahan (West Coast)
3 - Phoenix Gothard (Greater Western Sydney)
2 - Ty Gallop (Brisbane)
2 - Leo Lombard (Gold Coast)