GEELONG earned a week's break after finishing in fifth spot but might not have enjoyed watching Carlton continue to build momentum in what has become a stunning resurgence since coach Josh Fraser took the reins.

The Cats, on the other hand, have almost been flying under the radar as they won their last six matches by an average of 35 points to cruise into their 20th finals campaign in the past 23 seasons. Three defeats from as many matches against top-six sides, as well as a loss to the Blues, in the second half of the season leave question marks hanging over coach Chris Scott's team. But its wealth of experience and record of winning at least one final in all but three of its past 20 finals series make Geelong hard to tip against in a knockout game. 

The Blues incredibly turned around a 1-8 start to the season before parting ways with coach Michael Voss to put together an 11-1-2 record across their next 14 matches and march into the wildcard round. After a slow start against the Demons, the Blues rallied to boot nine goals to three after the first break to keep their fairytale run alive. They now face a six-day break but with three wins in the past three matches against Geelong, and four in their past five, Carlton can be confident its wild ride is not ready to end yet.

Geelong is sweating on the fitness of Max Holmes though the elimination final is expected to come too soon for the speedster as he recovers from an ankle injury. Mark Blicavs was managed for the round 24 clash with Richmond but is ready to return. Carlton forward Will Hayward is pushing for a recall after missing the wildcard final, while defender Nick Haynes will again need to prove his fitness after limping through the win against the Demons.  

Where and when: MCG, Friday September 4, 7.40pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 12: Carlton 12.16 (88) defeated Geelong 12.12 (84) at the MCG

Carlton's resurgence after winning two from two since Josh Fraser took the reins as interim coach was put to the test against an in-form Geelong. The Cats had climbed to third spot after four comprehensive wins on the trot against the Kangaroos, Magpies, Lions and Swans. The Blues' bubble looked set to burst as the Cats pushed out to a 20-point lead halfway through the second term. That was until the new-look Blues started moving the ball with speed, changing angles, and chipping away at the Cats' lead. Jack Henry's goal to put the Cats two points in front with two minutes remaining would have been enough to finish off the Blues earlier in the season. But when Patrick Cripps soared over a pack and kicked truly the Blues had snatched an unlikely victory and rubber stamped an even more surprising return to form. 

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Geelong

The Cats' recent record against the Blues with three consecutive defeats, and four losses in their past five clashes, is cause for concern. But the perennial finalists have the gameplan and experience to challenge the Blues' new possession-based style, with their own forward-half pressure a key to their success as the stakes rise. The Cats are ranked first for forward-half intercepts, inside-50 differential and points from the forward half as their well-honed structure and manic intensity dial up the pressure on opposition defences and lock the ball in their own half. 

Carlton

The Blues have been the second-stingiest side in the competition since Fraser took charge with an average of 75 points a game conceded in 15 matches. Carlton has started to limit opposition attacks through improving its own control of possession, though it is also defending against turnover better than all but the top teams. The Blues are ranked fourth for defensive 50 to inside 50 against, while their backline unit are also stepping up with the side ranked third for scores per inside 50 against during their revival period. 

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Geelong

Jeremy Cameron missed five straight wins after he went down with a shoulder injury in Geelong's round 18 defeat to GWS. But the 33-year-old returned in time for the Cats' round 24 tune-up against the Tigers and will be better for having a game in his legs where he gathered 22 disposals. The Cats had already been turning to other solutions in their forward half, with Shannon Neale (47 goals) and Oliver Henry (42) often leading the attack this year, while the two-time Coleman medallist played almost all of the game against the Giants in defence before being struck by injury. Cameron split his time between the forward line, and the remaining half of his game spent on the wing or in defence, on his return, but Scott could look to stretch the Blues' defence with a trio of forward targets.

Carlton

Sam Walsh is putting together a formidable finals record and was at his best again when it counts most with a devastating display as Carlton overran Melbourne in the wildcard round. The Blues' vice-captain has averaged 32.4 disposals across his five career finals but added a touch of class to every possession against the Demons as he amassed 39 disposals, seven clearances, seven score involvements and five inside 50s. Young gun Jagga Smith (29 disposals, two goals) rightly earned many of the plaudits after his superb finals debut. But Walsh – who won the Gary Ayres Medal as the best player in the 2023 finals series – has been as important as any Blues midfielder to the side's incredible turnaround.

PREDICTION

Geelong will be as wary of Carlton's reemergence as its own recent record in clashes between the teams, but has the experience to know the past counts for little come finals time. The Cats might have fine-tuned for the finals with six straight wins against sides now out of contention but the week's break, while the Blues have six days between matches, should leave them perfectly primed for a deep run. The Blues' fairytale run has been impossible to ignore and there should be no shame in it coming to an end in an elimination final against the Cats. Geelong by 14 points.