IF HISTORY is a reliable guide, Brisbane will book yet another preliminary final spot on Saturday night.

The back-to-back reigning premier was stunned in a 53-point loss to an undermanned Sydney at the SCG on Saturday, meaning they will have to go the long way to a third consecutive flag.

But the Lions, who bounced back from a qualifying final loss last year on their way to the flag, are favoured by history. And, so are the Swans.

The Lions became the 13th team since the current finals system was introduced in 2000 to lose a qualifying final by 50 or more points, and the second since 2017.

And the previous 12 have all bounced back to win the following week.

Despite a defeat that saw their mentality questioned by coach Chris Fagan, the Lions will go into their clash against Adelaide at the Gabba as favourites.

As for the Swans, who have been weakened by five club-imposed suspensions and injuries to other key players, they are remarkably just one win away from a third Grand Final in five years.

Of the previous 12 teams to win a qualifying final by 50-plus points since 2000, 11 made the decider, with eight winning the flag.

The only club to fall short came two years ago, when Geelong fell in a preliminary final to the Lions after thrashing the Power in the first week.

For Brisbane and minor premier Fremantle, they are also staring at straight-sets exits, which have become more frequent in recent years.

Since 2014, 12 teams in 12 seasons have exited in straight sets after just two clubs suffered that fate in the 14 seasons beforehand, with the introduction of the pre-finals bye in 2026 likely a contributing factor.

Between 2016 and 2025, nine teams in 10 seasons lost two straight finals after finishing in the top four compared to five teams in the 16 seasons before the bye was introduced.

Straight-sets exits

(Teams to lose a qualifying and semi-final in the same season since 2000)

2001: Port Adelaide (3rd)
2007: West Coast (3rd)
2014: Fremantle (4th)
2014: Geelong (3rd)
2015: Sydney (4th)
2016: Hawthorn (3rd)
2018: Hawthorn (4th)
2019: Brisbane (2nd)
2021: Brisbane (4th)
2022: Melbourne (2nd)
2023: Port Adelaide (3rd)
2023: Melbourne (4th)
2024: Greater Western Sydney (4th)
2025: Adelaide (1st)

Teams to lose a qualifying final by 50-plus points since 2000

Teams to win a qualifying final by 50-plus points since 2000