AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at the former colleague Todd Viney should call, Sydney's surge towards the most unlikeliest of flags and more in Cal-culations

WILL THE SWANS CLAIM THE MOST FAMOUS FLAG OF ALL?

SYDNEY is two steps away from one of history's most famous premierships.

After the Swans' stunning qualifying final thrashing of Brisbane on Saturday, the question is not can they do it, but will they?

The wipeout of Chris Fagan's side from start to finish saw the Swans book in a preliminary final at the SCG against either Fremantle or Geelong and they will head into the game on the back of one of their most famous wins. Clearly, on Saturday's evidence, it is now not beyond this group to find two more wins, despite the challenges ahead.

Two weeks after standing down five key players, including superstars Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Nick Blakey as well as James Jordon and Riley Bice, for their part in the Pullman Hotel investigation, the Swans pieced together the ultimate takedown of the reigning back-to-back premiers.

It was Dean Cox's finest moment as coach and came after the early loss of captain Callum Mills to a suspected ACL knee injury, with the win going down in Swans folklore as one of their best ever, alongside Tony Lockett's point in the 1996 preliminary final and Nick Davis' heroics in the 2004 semi-final.

Everything came off for the Swans. Charlie Curnow, recruited to the Swans for games like these, shed doubts on his past finals performances with five goals, taking his Coleman Medal-winning tally to 74 for the season. He is the recruit of the year without a doubt.

Tom Papley lifted to have his best game of the season with five goals as an electrifier for the Swans, while Logan McDonald had a career day with six. McDonald has now kicked a career-best 48 goals for the season, while his close mate Errol Gulden stood up in the midfield without his fellow champion Swans to deliver around the ball.

Gulden (who might be captain for the rest of the Swans' season) and McDonald have a daily tradition of playing backgammon together at breakfast each day at the Swans' headquarters. But they were playing chess as the Lions played checkers, with all of Cox's plans paying off.

James Rowbottom's job on Lachie Neale was pivotal. Neale, who is set to leave the Lions at the end of their finals campaign, has had four games this year with an AFL Player Ratings score below 10, with three of them coming in round 20, 23 and the qualifying final.

The Swans restricted Brisbane to their equal season low score from stoppage. Brisbane conceded the most metres gained they have all year and most kick metres gained this season. They were smashed in the middle, with the Lions conceding 6.3 from centre bounce, their most all year. The Swans, known for their handball game this year, had their season-high metres gained for kicks.

Of Brisbane's top five games for points conceded from turnover this year, three have been against Sydney; the Swans went to work on finding the Lions' soft point and nailed it.

Only 18 days ago, Swans president Andrew Pridham said the club had effectively "torpedoed" its season with its decision to stand down the five players at the centre of the Pullman Hotel investigation.

But in between that, the Swans coaches had changed their training focuses to be totally aligned to how finals are played, with their remaining players never stopping to believe they could still get the job done in September. They are now only two wins away, with Justin McInerney (hamstring) and Joel Amartey (Achilles) both expected to be fit to play in the preliminary final.

FREO'S FLOP CHANGES FINALS SCRIPT

JUSTIN Longmuir all of a sudden has a restoration job ahead of him.

Hawthorn found chinks in Fremantle's armour that had started to emerge in the month preceding the finals and wrenched them open on the biggest stage. Now, Longmuir's task is to not only win a semi-final against a seasoned finals side in Geelong, but also to ensure the doubt that seeped into the Dockers last week doesn't derail 11 months of work.

AFL.com.au's revealing profile of Longmuir last week ahead of the qualifying final detailed how he had handed each of his players a link in a chain after last year's elimination final loss to Gold Coast. The message was clear: the Dockers were only as strong as their weakest link.

But they had many, many weak links against the Hawks in one of the flattest finals performances seen for many years for a top-of-the-ladder team.

The numbers said enough. Champion Data showed they were belted in their turnover game, scoring just 17 points from that source, which is their lowest tally under Longmuir since 2020. Their wobbly ball use in big moments belied their season – they gave up 32 defensive half turnovers, which is easily their most this season.

Their three key forwards – Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss – contributed one mark between them and had zero wins from eight one-on-one contests. Their forwards were outplayed, with Treacy having his second lowest rated game of the year while Isaiah Dudley and Mason Cox had their fourth lowest rated games of 2026.

Freo's midfield mainstays, apart from Andrew Brayshaw, were largely ineffective, while Jordan Clark, who had a game-high 38 disposals off half-back, was one of the few Dockers to be able to walk out with his head high.

Freo's script-flipping stinker to start the finals is not unsurmountable, but they now have to go the long way to the flag and face a visit to Sydney in a preliminary final if they are to make their first Grand Final since 2013.

But if more of the nerves that riddled their effort against the Hawks show up against the Cats, thinking that far ahead is a moot point. Longmuir will need to strengthen every link in the chain this week to avoid the worst.

THE FAMILIAR FACE THE KANGAS SHOULD CALL

THE NORTH Melbourne job is as attractive as any to land in recent years and now the focus turns to who gets the role.

The Roos are going to market to find Alastair Clarkson's replacement after the shock sacking of the four-time premiership coach this week, and first-time contenders should be lining up for this gig.

But expect Todd Viney, the man who joined the Roos at Clarkson's call in 2022 but then was part of the decision to sack him this week, to make a phone call to a former coach he knows well.

Viney has appointed one coach before – Simon Goodwin in 2014. Then, as Melbourne's football boss, Viney was on the panel that picked Goodwin to be part of a succession plan with Paul Roos and take over the Demons' list three years later in 2017.

By the time Goodwin had the reigns, like North Melbourne now, the hardest rebuild yards had been done.

In his second season, the Demons made the preliminary final. In his fifth, they won the 2021 flag.

Goodwin will surely be on the list of names Viney and the Roos make contact with in coming weeks as they look for a "modern" coach, which was just one of the not-even-subtle backhanders sent Clarkson's way at Wednesday's fierce press conference.

Whether Goodwin, who became Sydney's director of coaching and performance at the end of last year following his departure from the Demons, is ready to jump back into the furnace of coaching in Victoria remains to be seen.

He wasn't prepared to enter the Essendon race when they reached out, but North Melbourne is a different proposition list wise than the Bombers and is now searching for the extra pieces rather than being at the beginning of the long-term list reset.

Certainly Goodwin's name has been at the forefront of discussions around Adelaide if the Crows were to make a tough call on Matthew Nicks, who doused some of the discussion about his future with Saturday night's elimination final win over the Western Bulldogs.

Success favours first-time coaches; only four flags this century (Leigh Matthews at Brisbane in 2001, 2002 and 2003 and Mick Malthouse at Collingwood in 2010) have been won by second-time coaches.

It is why the likes of Jaymie Graham, who interviewed strongly at Carlton and Essendon in their recent searches, James Kelly, Daniel Giansiracusa, Corey Enright, Murray Davis and more senior aspirants will be right in the mix to impress and take on a group ready to pop.

North favourite sons John Longmire and Adam Simpson will also be front of mind, particularly given Longmire's interest in returning to the coaching hot seat.

But Goodwin, whose end at Melbourne came with a year to run on his contract and as part of a wider cultural reset for the Dees with big name players traded out, should also be on the list of phone calls North makes. His second coaching job will happen – it's just about when and where.

THE BAILEY BOWL

WHAT is going through Zac Bailey's mind this week?
 
After a near year spent being courted by Adelaide and weighing up whether he takes the Crows' $10 million offer or stays at the Lions, the two clubs meet in a knockout semi-final at the Gabba.

If anyone knows for sure what Bailey is doing in 2027, they aren't saying it. Brisbane continues to hope he will turn his back on close to $3 million to stay loyal to the Lions, while Adelaide is hoping to pinch another premiership star out of Brisbane after poaching Callum Ah Chee last year.

But the Lions are also realistic. History says if an in-demand free agent has not signed by midway through finals, the writing is on the wall about their future. However Bailey has given few clues, even to teammates, about his decision, other than telling them he would ideally like to stay a Lion but there are obvious financial considerations.

The Crows have had him as their No.1 target for close to 12 months in a long-term play to bring him back to Adelaide, where he played for Norwood, having relocated from Darwin as a junior. Their mega offer, revealed on Gettable in March, has been staring at him all year.

Bailey was far from the worst Lion in their shock qualifying final defeat to the Swans, gathering 21 disposals having been named an All Australian for the second successive year last month.

Coach Matthew Nicks will be doing everything to stop Bailey on Saturday night, but you can bet a few Crows players post-game – win or loss – will be giving him a nudge about his 2027 plans.

JEZZA'S GOAL DROUGHT

IF JEZZA doesn't get you, beware the Danger signs.

That was the case for Carlton on Friday night, with Patrick Dangerfield stepping up with five goals in a best-on-ground display to power Geelong home. It came as Jeremy Cameron battled with just nine disposals and no influence on the game.

It is hard to see the Cats being able to go much deeper into this finals series without Cameron closer to his best, as he continues to battle from the after effects of last year's broken arm in the Grand Final.

Cameron has now not kicked a goal in his past five games – his last goal came against Fremantle in round 15 in the middle of June. Injury forced him to miss a month and the Cats have been working through solutions for his best role. But the goal drought is a concern as the star forward, against Fremantle on Friday night, will get to within one game of his 300th in the AFL.

Dangerfield produced another special finals performance against the Blues but the champions are always able to pull those games out, like Ricky Ponting was able to pull out a hundred after a lean spell later in his career. But depending on that type of showing from the 36-year-old won't be part of the Cats' planning this week.

The upside for Geelong was that a number of their best weren't at their best against the Blues – Bailey Smith was busier after half-time but quiet before then, Max Holmes was back from injury, Lawson Humphries didn't have as much influence and their forward line really only got into the action in the second half.

AND ANOTHER THING ...

WE are keeping an eye on the strange best and fairest results in Cal-culations.

First up, Port Adelaide. Aliir Aliir made the All Australian squad of the competition's best 46 players this season and yet finished eighth in the Power's best and fairest this year.

As one of the AFL's leading intercept defenders this season, that is an odd result for a bottom-four team. As always, coaches are allowed to see things differently and it is their set of votes, but from these seats Aliir's year felt better than several players ahead of him in the Power's count.