WE ARE just three games away from the end of the 2026 season, but the identity of the premiership favourite is still no clearer.

Leading into preliminary finals weekend, the race for the premiership is one of the most open that we have seen in years; minor premier Fremantle and three-peat aspirant Brisbane have both come the long way round, but look to have hit top form with impressive semi-final wins, while Hawthorn is well placed after its upset over the Dockers to earn a week off, and Sydney is riding a wave of emotions to try and defy what looked to be a season-ending scandal.

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Four teams, four states and four very different stories, but which one will be etched into AFL folklore come the final siren on the last Saturday in September?

Our team of experts have their say on who will win the Grand Final from here, and why.

Damian Barrett: FREMANTLE
The qualifying final loss to Hawthorn worried me, but now that they've found a way to win in September, albeit with a touch of luck, I'm sticking with the Dockers as my flag fancy. Loved the way they attacked the start of the semi-final against the Cats. Shai Bolton was brilliant, Murphy Reid returned to something resembling his best, and Hayden Young was sublime. And they've got Luke Jackson. When others panicked against the Hawks, he didn't. He's already once changed the course of a Grand Final, and he is even more capable of doing so in 2026.

Riley Beveridge: BRISBANE
Brisbane's best is still the best in the competition, the Lions still have more weapons than any other side, and it's a group that knows how to go the long way around. Let's not forget, this Brisbane side finished outside the top four on its way to the flag in 2024, before losing a qualifying final in 2025 as well. Yes, this Lions team has endured the odd aberration this season. But they've always responded and two of those responses include a 43-point win over Sydney and a 67-point win over Hawthorn earlier in the year. They also hold no fears going to the MCG and have won eight of their last 10 games at the home of football, as well as four of their last five finals there. Get ready for back-to-back-to-back.

Sarah Black: FREMANTLE
It's finally time for 'Flagmantle'. After an imperious home-and-away season, the Dockers have had the finals wake-up call they required at the hands of a ferocious Hawthorn, and won't be caught resting on their heels again. The wide expanses of the MCG will suit Fremantle's tall forward line with plenty of room to move, while finals wildcards Luke Jackson and Shai Bolton know how to perform on the biggest stage of all. Hayden Young is finally fit and firing, and few can squash his power out of a contest. The well-balanced Dockers were just far too strong for a finals-hardened Geelong and should account for Sydney in this weekend's preliminary final. 

Nat Edwards: HAWTHORN
The question is why not? This Hawthorn side has the right mix of youth and experience, and with a forward line that would be the envy of most, there is no doubt they have the talent and wizardry to kick a winning score. They also boast a defensive unit that managed to contain Fremantle's talls, which in 2026 is no easy feat. Factor in the MCG, Hawthorn's home ground, and they will also have a slight advantage against any interstate opponent. There is also one intangible ... pressure. And right now, none of that is on the Hollywood Hawks. The Lions are targeting a rare three-peat and a place in the history books, while Fremantle is the minor premier and the team most thought would salute in September. Then you have Sydney, need I mention the Grand Final scars? The pressure is real for these teams, while the Hawks have a little more freedom to play without the weight of expectation. And if you need another reason why ... two words: The Wizard.

Josh Gabelich: BRISBANE
They responded emphatically to the qualifying final performance on Saturday night. Now they head to Melbourne for the first of potentially two visits over the final fortnight of the season. The MCG holds no fears. They have won not just the past two grand finals there, but the past two preliminary finals, after falling just short in 2023. They smashed the Hawks in round 22 at the Gabba and beat them at the MCG last year. In a wide open race, they are the safest bet. 

Emily Patterson: HAWTHORN
Hawthorn's rebuild under Sam Mitchell has produced one of the League's most complete teams, combining the talent, depth and game plan needed to win the 2026 premiership. The Hawks' rise has been driven by a clear style built around contested-ball strength, rapid ball movement and a talented young core that has matured into a genuine premiership force. Jai Newcombe sets the tone in the midfield, while Will Day and Nick Watson provide the creativity and attacking spark to create multiple scoring opportunities. Behind the ball, James Sicily anchors a disciplined defence through his leadership and intercept marking. Those strengths, combined with proven performers across every line and strong recent form, has Hawthorn advancing through September as the competition's leading contender.

Joel Peterson: BRISBANE
It's a path they’ve walked successfully before, even down to the day and time of the preliminary final they'll go through again this year at 5.15pm on Saturday. The Lions have had to do it the hard way for both of their flags, they looked downright terrifying on Saturday night against Adelaide and completely bullied Hawthorn when they last met. Their 1-3 record against prospective opponents Sydney and Fremantle is more of a worry, but Grand Finals can turn those form lines on their head. Above all, if your pre-season tip is still alive at this time of year, it's best to stick with them.

Nathan Schmook: FREMANTLE 
Fremantle has been the best team all season and has now got over a significant mental hurdle by winning a big final and progressing to its first preliminary final under Justin Longmuir. If the Dockers handle the moment from here they can beat all remaining finalists, as they have already this season. No team can contain the Dockers in full flight, and they have learned this year to use their different modes and gears to turn matches with devastating bursts. Their centre bounce game is razor sharp and their superstars are back in form, with the team boasting the most talent, the highest ceiling, and undeniable hunger and team connection. Going through September the long way and with expectations lowered could suit them.

Callum Twomey: FREMANTLE
Backing in the Dockers to have their tails up after two wins in a row and having overcome the first finals week jitters. The best team of the season doesn't have deep finals experience like the rest of the contenders, but they do have weapons who have individually been there before, like Luke Jackson and Shai Bolton, and both were important last week against the Cats. 

Michael Whiting: BRISBANE
Since losing the 2023 Grand Final to Collingwood by less than a kick, the Lions are 8-0 in do-or-die finals. There’s a level of trust in big games they’ve earned that the other three teams just don’t have. Chris Fagan’s men know exactly what to do under the most extreme heat and they have weapons on every line that are so difficult to contain across four quarters. They’re far from perfect and can be beaten – ask Sydney and Geelong following the past two qualifying finals – but the law of averages suggests their best football is the best in the competition. If you stop Lachie Neale, Will Ashcroft pops up. If you stop Charlie Cameron, Kai Lohmann pops up. It becomes a numbers game.