FOUR teams are vying for a preliminary final berth as the heavy hitters of North Melbourne and Melbourne await.

Geelong got agonisingly close to the week off – just one missed set shot away – and Carlton is on its knees following an impressive start to the season.

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Meanwhile, elimination final winners Sydney and Hawthorn are bundles of energy, looking to maintain the momentum of their week one wins.

Here's who and what to look out for across the second week of finals as well as a tip for each match.

Geelong v Sydney, GMHBA Stadium
Saturday, November 14, 4.05pm AEDT

Last time they met: Sydney 7.8 (50) d Geelong 6.9 (45), round three 2025
Head-to-head: Geelong – three wins, Sydney – one win
Finals played: Geelong – 6 (2W/4L), Sydney – 3 (2W/1L)

Geelong's qualifying final loss last week bears a strange similarity to the last time the side played Sydney, back in round three last year. A fast start – the Cats kicked the first three goals of the game – before the visitors fought back, only for a late shot from a Cat to fall wayward. Now the sides meet in a do-or-die final, with Geelong at its strongest in second quarters, and Sydney in third terms.

Momentum swings are fair to expect, while stoppage will be the crux of the game for the duration. Where the Cats have relied on winning contested possession and moving the ball neatly by hand this year, last week they went -24 and -29 for those metrics respectively. So, this is Sydney’s starting point – take away that releasing option to prevent the Cats from getting the game on their terms.

Georgie Prespakis obviously presents as a major influence on this game, with her stoppage work important, but more so her spread from contest and capacity to repeatedly get involved in passages of play. Should it play out as expected – Tanya Kennedy reprising her successful tagging role from last week – the priority will be preventing that secondary involvement from Prespakis. This is the only way to minimise the star's impact. That being said, the Cats' midfield bats deep, with Nina Morrison, Amy McDonald and Mikayla Bowen all reliably setting the side up from the contest.

For Sydney, the capacity to compete in the midfield will be critical if it is to prevent too many opportunities for Geelong’s overwhelming forward line. Sydney's undersized defence has been well documented all season, and the four key targets of Jackie Parry, Aishling Moloney, Chloe Scheer, and Chantal Mason could overwhelm the line in a big way, so starving the Cats of too many opportunities in their front half needs to be a key to the Swans' game.

Tip: The Cats will make their move in the second quarter. Geelong by 18 points.

Carlton v Hawthorn, Ikon Park
Saturday, November 14, 7.15pm AEDT

Last time they met: Carlton 5.6 (36) d Hawthorn 3.6 (24), round eight 2026
Head-to-head: Carlton – two wins, Hawthorn – two wins
Finals played: Carlton – 7 (4W/3L), Hawthorn – 5 (1W/4L)

The Hawks finally broke a run of four consecutive finals losses to claim victory against the higher ranked Suns, and now with some momentum under their belts and some better ball movement, there's no reason to expect that to change coming into this semi-final clash. Importantly, what they did against the Suns last week is exactly the method to shut down Carlton, so expect a similar Hawthorn side that showed up on the Gold Coast. High pressure around the contest, limiting the opposition's uncontested possession, and then controlling the game with a kick-mark style once possession has been established. Last week they went +36 for uncontested ball, and this essentially allowed them to play on their terms. Crucially, the willingness to make the ground big once they've won the footy, and use the width of the ground, via disciplined wing positioning, to change angles going forward.

For the Blues, things have moved in the opposite direction. They have lost uncontested possession by an average of 25.2 over their last five games, and their scoring in that time has dropped from 48.9 points (rounds one to eight) to 35.2 points per game from round nine onward. They're having a hard time winning the footy at the source, and then struggling to win it back on the outside. The flow on effect of this is an inability to win or maintain field position, and then when they do get the ball forward, their goal efficiency has dropped away. It is largely thanks to their solid backline that things haven't fallen further. The question then becomes, what is the way out of this freefall? Composure around contest is the first port of call, not allowing that opposition pressure to worry them into poor, panicked use.

Meanwhile, adding someone like Erone Fitzpatrick around the footy more regularly – particularly in the absence of Claudia Whitfort – presents as a point of difference. Although should they go down this path, ensuring she is protected and running lanes are created for her to get busy needs to be a priority.

Tip: The Hawks have found their groove. Hawthorn by 12 points.