SUMMARY
The MCG will be buzzing for Melbourne's first final in 12 years, with the Demons going into September in strong form after consecutive wins over fellow finals combatants West Coast (17 points) and Greater Western Sydney (45 points). Geelong has had a more cushy run into finals with back-to-back hammerings of Fremantle (133 points) and Gold Coast (102 points), giving the Cats important momentum going into their third consecutive finals campaign. If their home and away season battles are any guide, you can expect another close tussle between the two oldest sides in the competition in a do-or-die elimination final on Friday night.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Friday September 7, 7.50pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round one: Geelong 14.13 (97) d Melbourne 13.16 (94)
A Patrick Dangerfield-less Cats side led by 27 points at half-time, only to see Melbourne come charging back into the contest with a four goals to one third term. Demons ruckman Max Gawn had the chance to claim victory with a shot in the dying stages of the game but his kick missed to the left.
Round 18: Geelong 16.4 (100) d Melbourne 14.14 (98)
Geelong cut into a 23-point three-quarter time deficit with an inspired final term from forward Tom Hawkins, who kicked four of his seven goals in the last quarter. Melbourne was denied victory by Zach Tuohy, who kicked a clutch set-shot after the siren to deliver the Cats a pulsating win.
LAST FIVE TIMES
R18, 2018, Geelong 16.4 (100) d Melbourne 14.14 (98) at GMHBA Stadium
R1, 2018, Geelong 14.13 (97) d Melbourne 13.16 (94) at the MCG
R3, 2017, Geelong 20.6 (126) d Melbourne 13.19 (97) at Etihad Stadium
R23, 2016, Geelong 24.11 (155) d Melbourne 6.8 (44) at GMHBA Stadium
R12, 2015, Melbourne 18.5 (113) d Geelong Cats 13.11 (89) at GMHBA Stadium
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Melbourne
1. James Harmes went to Joel Selwood as a tagger when the teams met in round 18, while he played on Dangerfield in the final quarter. Likely to resume hostilities with Selwood.
2. With Jesse Hogan sidelined, Christian Petracca is Melbourne's X-factor up forward. Can float into the midfield, but has the potential to turn a game deep in attack. Keep him there.
3. The Demons have been stationing first-year player and strong intercept marking player Bayley Fritsch behind the ball in the second half of the season to help bolster their defence. Look for that trend to continue.
Christian Petracca is Melbourne's X-factor in attack. Picture: AFL Photos
Geelong
1. It would be radical, but the Cats have to do something out of the box to stop Max Gawn. Mark Blicavs has the ability to cover the ground as well as the Demons ruckman and the size to go with him in the air. Should the Cats pull Blicavs out of defence and get him to match up on Gawn at stages in the game to curtail his influence?
2. Scott Selwood to play as Geelong's 'pressure forward'. Has moved there in the last two weeks and brings an intent and competitiveness Geelong had been lacking inside forward 50.
3. The Cats like to set up with a spare behind the ball with Lachie Henderson or Harry Taylor generally employed in that role. Look for Geelong to engineer this in anyway possible.
THE SIX POINTS
1. Melbourne finished the home and away season ranked first for scoring, inside 50s, marks inside 50, contested possessions and centre clearances. Geelong was fourth for scoring, sixth for inside 50s and equal third for marks inside 50.
2. The Demons and Cats will play in a final for the first time since a 2005 elimination final when Geelong was the comfortable winner. The teams have played seven times in finals with the Cats winning five.
3. The Demons will be looking for their first finals victory since a 2006 elimination final win over St Kilda at the MCG. Geelong has lost seven of its last 10 finals since 2013.
4. Melbourne is the lowest-ranked of the top eight teams for finals experience, with a combined total of just 44 games, thanks mainly to Jordan Lewis (23 at Hawthorn). By contrast, Geelong is ranked third with a combined 209 finals among its players.
5. Melbourne has been a team that wins lots of the footy, ranked second in the AFL for disposals (an average of 391 per game). Geelong is not too far behind, ranked sixth (averaging 382.8).
6. Geelong's Sam Menegola was the second-highest scoring player in the Schick AFL Player Ratings between rounds 20 and 23, averaging 21.7 points.
WHAT THE COACHES SAY
Simon Goodwin (Melbourne): "We're basically playing our brand in the biggest game we can possibly play in against Geelong. We go in knowing exactly what we're up against, we know exactly what style and brand we want to play so that holds no fears at all."
Chris Scott (Geelong): "There would be occasions where teams are in those kinds of situations and they turn up their toes. It does set you up for something special if you have that in a group because it's very hard to manufacture if it's not there organically." – after Geelong's after-the-siren victory over Melbourne in round 18.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Of Geelong's ruckmen, Rhys Stanley (calf) is unlikely to be available, leaving the challenge of going up against the best ruckman in the competition to fourth-gamer Ryan Abbott or Zac Smith, who has not played at AFL level since round nine. Expect Blicavs to spend some time in there as well. If Gawn is allowed to dictate terms, the Cats will find it difficult to compete with the highest-scoring side in the competition.
PREDICTION: Melbourne by five points
