WITH its finals chances on the line, Gold Coast scored its first win without skipper Gary Ablett last Saturday, albeit against bottom team St Kilda at home. Carlton was gallant in defeat against fourth-placed Fremantle last round and should fancy its chances against the Suns. Despite Ablett’s brilliance, the Blues had a comfortable victory at Metricon Stadium the last time these clubs met. Carlton has a much better record at Etihad Stadium this season, having won five of seven games at the venue. The Blues have had nine days to get over the trip back from Perth and are finishing the season strongly.



WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Saturday, August 9, 2.10pm AEST

LAST THREE TIMES
R18, 2013, Carlton 16.24 (120) d Gold Coast 11.11 (77) at Metricon Stadium
R22, 2012, Gold Coast 15.8 (98) d Carlton 11.20 (86) at Metricon Stadium
R 2, 2011, Carlton 26.15 (171) d Gold Coast 7.10 (52) at the Gabba


THE SIX POINTS
1. Carlton won comfortably when these clubs last met, in round 18 last season at Metricon Stadium. Ruckman Matthew Kreuzer was best on ground, earning the three Brownlow votes.

2. Gold Coast has improved its Etihad Stadium record this season dramatically. After losing six straight between 2011-13 the Suns have won two from two this year.

3. The Suns could have a big advantage at the clearances. They are ranked equal second at 40.6 a game compared with the Blues, who are ranked ninth at 38.7 a match.

4. In two victories from three contests between the clubs, Carlton’s average winning margin is 81 points. 

5. Gold Coast needs to improve its disposal efficiency. The Suns are ranked 18th for disposal efficiency at 70.6 per cent. Carlton is equal 10th at 71.8 per cent.

6. Jarrad Waite’s influence since returning to Carlton’s senior team has been reflected in his rise in the Official AFL Player Ratings, climbing from 223rd overall to 190th in the past two rounds.

Prediction: Carlton by 15 points.