The ‘known known’ heading into this one is that it will be close. Hawthorn has won its last three against Sydney with the games decided by five, six and six points. It will also likely be low scoring, with the Hawks' 12.10 (82) the highest score kicked by either side in their games the last three years. This is a great modern rivalry with tight games, high-profile player movement between the clubs and coaches who are former teammates and good mates. The Swans are unbeaten away from the SCG but still, just aren’t ticking the scoreboard over regularly enough and the difference here is that the Hawks have more in-form and dangerous options close to goal. They should generate just enough scoring opportunities to win the game.

WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Friday, May 11, 7.50pm AEST 

TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide 

R19, 2017, Hawthorn 10.12 (72) d Sydney 9.12 (66) at the MCG
R10, 2017, Hawthorn 12.9 (81) d Sydney 11.9 (75) at the SCG
R17, 2016, Hawthorn 11.9 (75) d Sydney 10.10 (70) at the SCG
R9, 2016, Sydney 10.9 (69) d Hawthorn 7.13 (55) at the MCG
R16, 2015, Hawthorn 23.8 (146) d Sydney 7.15 (57) at ANZ Stadium 

1. It was low scoring from start to finish when the sides last played, with Jarryd Roughead playing one of his best games of 2017; 24 disposals, eight marks and two goals, enough for the three Brownlow votes. 

2.Both teams have been strong in clearances this season, the Swans are ranked first averaging 40.9 and the Hawks are seventh with an average of 37.6. 

3. A big advantage for the Hawks could be in tackling; they’ve been one of the strongest tackling sides this season ranked fourth averaging 67.1, well ahead of the Swans in 12th with 62.7.

4. The teams have played 18 times at the MCG with Hawthorn winning 11 games to seven; the Swans have won two of the last three.

5. Hawthorn is the most accurate team in front of goal this season at 55.9 per cent compared to the Swans who are mid-table, eighth at 48.4 per cent.

6. The Swans have two of the top-10 players in the Schick AFL Player Ratings – Josh Kennedy and Lance Franklin. Ben McEvoy (18) and Tom Mitchell (19) are the top-two rated Hawks.

The goals for the Swans have to come from somewhere, so if Sydney is to win, emerging forward Will Hayward needs to continue his good form, having kicked three goals in each of the last two weeks.

PREDICTION: Hawthorn by 10 points