FOUR rounds to play, eight finals spots available, 14 teams left in the race. Not everyone's going to be happy. Welcome back to The Run Home.
While the top teams stumbled in round 20, St Kilda, Greater Western Sydney and Carlton all secured crucial wins to find themselves in the top eight.
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
Geelong, the Western Bulldogs and Essendon all slipped up, while Sydney, Adelaide and Gold Coast kept their seasons alive.
And at the top, Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne are separated by just four points in the race for a pivotal home qualifying final.
Who's in the box seat, and who's facing an uphill battle to finish inside the eight? Check out your club's finish to the season below.
Despite Fremantle's win over Geelong, the Dockers remain two wins outside the top eight. They, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast have not been considered.
1. Collingwood
64 points (16 wins, three losses), 132.7 per cent
Despite a loss to the Blues on Friday evening, Collingwood still sits comfortably atop the ladder, aided by losses to Port Adelaide and Brisbane. The Pies will spend the final month of the season in Melbourne, including three games at home at the MCG. A game against a 16th-placed Hawthorn will be followed by a potentially tricky fortnight against Geelong and Brisbane before what looms as a big final round against Essendon. It would take a serious stumble from the Pies to drop out of the top two from here. - Gemma Bastiani
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Hawthorn @ MCG
R22: Geelong @ MCG
R23: Brisbane @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Essendon @ MCG
2. Port Adelaide
56 points (14 wins, five losses), 109.8 per cent
Just when it seemed a home qualifying final looked like a formality, Port Adelaide's grip on a top-two finish has loosened after three straight losses. Saturday night's loss to Adelaide hurts, but it could have been worse if Brisbane beat Gold Coast. Now the Power will need to deal with trips to Geelong and Perth (against Fremantle) plus challenging home games against Greater Western Sydney and Richmond. A top-two finish could come down to round 24 against the Tigers. – Josh Gabelich
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R24: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval
3. Brisbane
52 points (13 wins, six losses), 125.2 per cent
The Lions missed a golden opportunity to grab second spot with their upset loss to Gold Coast. Although coach Chris Fagan said his priority is the top four, a potential home qualifying final should be a huge carrot for a team that is unbeaten at the Gabba in 2023. To be sure of that, the Lions will likely need to win at least three and possibly all four of their remaining matches, starting with a tricky assignment against Fremantle in Perth. Zac Bailey's expected return from a calf injury would be a welcome addition. – Michael Whiting
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R22: Adelaide @ Gabba
R23: Collingwood @ Marvel Stadium
R24: St Kilda @ Gabba
4. Melbourne
52 points (13 wins, six losses), 124.3 per cent
With the top three all slipping up in round 20, the Dees are not only secure in the top four but firmly in the running for a home qualifying final. You'd expect them to bank wins against the lowly North Melbourne and Hawthorn so they'll be ready to pounce if the Power and Lions stumble in the run home. Melbourne's top-two hopes and Sydney's finals chances could both be determined at the SCG in the final round of the season. - Martin Smith
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: North Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena
R22: Carlton @ MCG
R23: Hawthorn @ MCG
R24: Sydney @ SCG
5. St Kilda
44 points (11 wins, eight losses), 106.5 per cent
The Saints took another step towards playing finals this year with their entertaining win over Hawthorn on Sunday. In more good news, their next three games are also at Marvel Stadium, where they are 7-4 this season. But the challenges are about to get far more difficult with clashes against Carlton, Richmond and Geelong before their trip to the Gabba in round 24. If St Kilda can win two of its final four games, it should feature in September. – Dejan Kalinic
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Geelong @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Brisbane @ Gabba
6. Greater Western Sydney
44 points (11 wins, eight losses), 102.4 per cent
The Giants have claimed a club-record seven straight wins and could extend that in the derby next weekend against the Swans, with midfielder Tom Green due back for that match. GWS's run home isn't easy, with a trip to second-placed Port Adelaide to come in round 22, although it has won its past five away games. The Giants also face top-eight contenders Essendon and Carlton in the final two rounds. - Ben Somerford
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R22: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Essendon @ Giants Stadium
R24: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
7. Carlton
42 points (10 wins, eight losses, one draw), 116.5 per cent
A statement win over Collingwood on Friday has seen Carlton jump into the top eight, but it is still jostling for position with the likes of Greater Western Sydney, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Sydney and Richmond. If the Blues can continue their winning ways and extend their current six-game streak, they will be able to all but confirm their first finals berth since 2013. Games against St Kilda and GWS could be make or break given the fight for fifth to eighth on the ladder, while Melbourne and Gold Coast are certainly no easybeats. - Gemma Bastiani
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Melbourne @ MCG
R23: Gold Coast @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R24: Greater Western Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
8. Western Bulldogs
40 points (10 wins, nine losses), 105.7 per cent
The Bulldogs have lost three of their past four games to put their finals hopes in jeopardy, but they will fancy their chances of victory in the next three weeks. Next weekend the Dogs take on the Tigers, who they beat earlier in the year at the MCG, before they face bottom-three duo Hawthorn in Launceston and West Coast at Marvel Stadium. The Dogs' round 24 trip down the Princes Highway to Geelong could be decisive for finals placings. Liam Jones' looming return from an arm injury could be a major boost for their run home. - Ben Somerford
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Richmond @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium
R23: West Coast @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
9. Geelong
38 points (nine wins, nine losses, one draw), 119.5 per cent
The Cats face arguably the toughest run home of any top-eight contender, and Saturday's shock loss to the Dockers made that road to finals even steeper. The next fortnight sees the Cats face the top two sides in Port Adelaide and Collingwood, a challenge no other finals aspirant will confront, which presents a huge hurdle for any team let alone one struggling with form and injuries. The Cats round out the season with games against other sides vying to make the eight in St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs, and simply can't afford to drop either of those. While they don't have to leave Victoria, the Cats play only two matches at GMHBA Stadium. Geelong will need to win at least three, if not all four, of its remaining matches if it is any hope of defending its premiership. – Sophie Welsh
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Port Adelaide @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Collingwood @ MCG
R23: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R24: Western Bulldogs @ GMHBA Stadium
10. Sydney
38 points (nine wins, nine losses, one draw), 111.2 per cent
The Swans looked cooked in mid-June, but Saturday night's win against Essendon makes it four wins and a draw from their last six outings and they're right back on the edge of the top eight. There's no easy games ahead but they only face one of the top-four sides – Melbourne – and that's at home at the SCG. Next week's derby against the Giants will be huge and as close to an eight-point game as is possible. – Howard Kimber
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R22: Gold Coast @ SCG
R23: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R24: Melbourne @ SCG
11. Richmond
38 points (nine wins, nine losses, one draw), 97.9 per cent
A painful loss for the Tigers on Sunday sets up a classic eight-point game against the Bulldogs on Friday night, with another to come against St Kilda a week later. A trip to Adelaide to face the Power in the final round of the season is a daunting one, meaning the Tigers will be desperate to bank some more wins before then. - Martin Smith
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
12. Adelaide
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses), 116 per cent
The Crows are back in the finals hunt and while they might need to win all four games to qualify for September, they reach August with their season still alive. They have a favourable draw coming home too; Brisbane is the only side currently in the top eight and they will face two sides who remain in the mix – Gold Coast and Sydney – across the next three rounds. – Josh Gabelich
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Gold Coast @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Brisbane @ Gabba
R23: Sydney @ Adelaide Oval
R24: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
13. Essendon
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses), 98.4 per cent
Other results have kept Essendon's September chances alive despite the costly loss to Sydney on Saturday night, and with West Coast and North Melbourne over the next fortnight it should still be a chance come round 23. However, it’s then Greater Western Sydney away before the final-round blockbuster against Collingwood at the MCG. The Bombers will need to win at least one – and possibly both – of those if they're to play finals. – Howard Kimber
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: West Coast @ Marvel Stadium
R22: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Greater Western Sydney @ Giants Stadium
R24: Collingwood @ MCG
14. Gold Coast
36 points (nine wins, 10 losses), 95.2 per cent
Miraculously the Suns are still a chance to play finals after their drought-breaking win over Brisbane on Saturday. They would need to win all four matches remaining and probably hope for a result or two to go their way, but a repeat of the intensity and desperation shown against the Lions over the final month, and anything is possible. Although it has just one match left at home, there wouldn't be one game Gold Coast looks at and thinks it isn't capable of winning. – Michael Whiting
WHO MAKES FINALS? Play the Ladder Predictor NOW
The run home
R21: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Sydney @ SCG
R23: Carlton @ Heritage Bank Stadium
R24: North Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena
