There are three rounds to go before the Smithy’s VFL finals and the permutations remain many and varied from the top of the ladder all the way down to the bottom.

Fourteen teams can mathematically still make the finals – even if a couple of those need other results to go their way to make it happen.

Let’s try to unpick what might happen in the last three weeks.

1^st, 14-2, 172.5%
STREAK: Won 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Brisbane Lions (18, Heritage Bank Stadium); def GWS Giants (40, Manuka Oval); Bye; def Frankston (107, Heritage Bank Stadium); lost Essendon (1, Windy Hill); def Box Hill Hawks (64, Heritage Bank Stadium)
TO COME: Bye; Sydney Swans (SCG); Carlton (Heritage Bank Stadium)
SUMMARY: Guaranteed a spot in the top two if it wins one of its last two games, given the massive percentage lead it has over Box Hill. But the Suns do have Werribee breathing down their neck for the minor premiership. Neither match should cause too many issues, so it is likely to come down to percentage.
PREDICTION: 16-2 (1^st)

2^nd, 14-2, 169.0%
STREAK: Won 13
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def North Melbourne (57, Arden Street Oval); def Frankston (44, Avalon Airport Oval); def Northern Bullants (144, Avalon Airport Oval); def Port Melbourne (23, ETU Stadium); def Sandringham (76, Avalon Airport Oval)
TO COME: Collingwood (Avalon Airport Oval); Bye; Sydney Swans (Tramway Oval)
SUMMARY: Like Gold Coast, a huge percentage means two home finals are assured with just one win against either the Magpies or the Swans, while the minor premiership can be pinched even if Gold Coast wins its last two games. Collingwood could be the banana skin, given the Magpies three wins in their past four trips down the highway.
PREDICTION: 16-2 (2^nd)

3^rd, 13-3, 130.7%
STREAK: Won 5
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Sandringham (47, Box Hill City Oval); def Richmond (3, Swinburne Centre); def North Melbourne (5, Arden Street Oval); def GWS Giants (14, Giants Stadium); def Port Melbourne (23, Box Hill City Oval)
TO COME: Bye; Footscray Bulldogs (Box Hill City Oval); Frankston (Kinetic Stadium)
SUMMARY: Couldn’t be doing much more and only needs one win to lock away the double chance. The Footscray game looms as an absolute classic with the Bulldogs on a seven-game winning streak, but if they can’t get it done then, they haven’t lost to Frankston for 16 years.
PREDICTION: 15-3 (3^rd)

4^th, 12-3-1, 161.6%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Gold Coast Suns (18, Heritage Bank Stadium); def Geelong Cats (35, Brighton Homes Arena); Bye; def Northern Bullants (128, Genis Steel Oval); lost Richmond (1, Brighton Homes Arena); drew Sandringham (0, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
TO COME: Bye; Williamstown (Brighton Homes Arena); Casey Demons (Casey Fields).
SUMMARY: The Lions have the shakes with a 50% record from their past seven games, although Casey’s shock loss last week has given them some breathing space and they will seal the double chance with a home win over the Seagulls. Lose that, however, and Round 22 looms as a qualifying final come early.
PREDICTION: 13-4-1 (4^th)

5^th, 11-5, 133.0%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Williamstown (1, Casey Fields); def Coburg (42, Piranha Park); Bye; def Sandringham (34, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); def GWS Giants (96, Casey Fields); def Geelong Cats (40, GMHBA Stadium)
TO COME: Bye; Carlton (IKON Park); Brisbane Lions (Casey Fields).
SUMMARY: The shock loss at home to a weakened Williamstown means a double chance position is out of their hands and they must rely on the Lions losing in Round 21 to avoid an elimination final. Having said that, neither remaining game is a gimme and two losses would likely consign them to the Wildcard Round.
PREDICTION: 13-5 (5^th)

6^th, 11-4, 113.7%
STREAK: Won 3
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Casey Demons (1, Casey Fields); def Essendon (6, DSV Stadium); Bye; def Southport Sharks (10, DSV Stadium); lost North Melbourne (53, Arden Street Oval); Bye; lost Footscray Bulldogs (30, DSV Stadium)
TO COME: Richmond (DSV Stadium); Brisbane Lions (Brighton Homes Arena); Sandringham (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
SUMMARY: The monumental performance against the Demons last week means they have had three wins in a row by 10 points or less and are now in the box seat to secure a home elimination final. They will want to remain switched on though. Although Richmond has struggled against them in recent times, the same is true for Willy against Sandringham, while that trip to Queensland is always hard.
PREDICTION: 13-5 (6^th)

7^th, 10-6, 125.8%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Werribee (57, Arden Street Oval); Bye; lost Box Hill Hawks 5 (Arden Street Oval); def Geelong (43, GMHBA Stadium); def Williamstown (53, Arden Street Oval); Bye; def Coburg (30, Piranha Park).
TO COME: Footscray Bulldogs (ETU Stadium); Bye; Richmond (Swinburne Centre)
SUMMARY: Back-to-back losses have given the Kangaroos’ top-six spot away and they will need an upset loss for either Casey or Williamstown to have a chance of getting it back. But these are tough games and two losses will leave them vulnerable to missing the finals altogether.
PREDICTION: 11-7 (8^th)

8^th, 9-6, 119.7%
STREAK: Won 7
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; def Northern Bullants (157, Genis Steel Oval); def Sydney Swans (62, Tramway Oval); def Collingwood (20, Avalon Airport Oval); def Coburg (32, DSV Stadium); Bye; def Williamstown (30, DSV Stadium)
TO COME: North Melbourne (ETU Stadium); Box Hill Hawks (Box Hill City Oval); Port Melbourne (ETU Stadium)
SUMMARY: A seven-match winning streak and while the early problems mean the top six is probably out of range, the Bulldogs are looming large in the Wildcard group. Two wins ensure finals, while one should be enough. Lose all three and they’ll be watching.
PREDICTION: 11-7 (7^th)

9^th, 9-7, 118.5%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Collingwood (28, Victoria Park); def Port Melbourne (36, IKON Park); Bye; def Coburg (52, Piranha Park); def Northern Bullants (85, IKON Park); Bye; lost Werribee (6, Avalon Airport Oval)
TO COME: Bye; Casey Demons (IKON Park); Gold Coast Suns (Heritage Bank Stadium)
SUMMARY: The loss to Collingwood keeps their spot open to the chasing pack, and two extremely difficult games to come means they will need a big upset to stay in the hunt. Six wins in their past eight games is good form, but the early issues look set to be fatal.
PREDICTION: 9-9 (12^th)

10^th, 9-6, 114.5%
STREAK: Won 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Carlton (28, Victoria Park); def Sandringham (16, AIA Centre); Bye; lost Footscray Bulldogs (20, Avalon Airport Oval); def Frankston (95, Kinetic Stadium); def Sydney (23, AIA Centre)
TO COME: Werribee (Avalon Airport Oval); Geelong Cats (Victoria Park); Southport Sharks (AIA Vitality Centre)
SUMMARY: In great form with six wins in their past seven games and have a good record at Werribee, their venue this week. They should be too good for Geelong but you wouldn’t want to underestimate Southport, especially if they’re still in the hunt.
PREDICTION: 10-8 (9^th)

11^th, 8-6-1, 98.0%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; lost Box Hill Hawks (3, Swinburne Centre); def Southport Sharks (13, Fankhauser Reserve); lost Sydney Swans (21, Swinburne Centre); def Brisbane Lions (1, Brighton Homes Arena); Bye; def Sandringham (32, Swinburne Centre); lost Werribee (45, Swinburne Centre).
TO COME: Williamstown (DSV Stadium); Port Melbourne (ETU Stadium); North Melbourne (Swinburne Centre)
SUMMARY: A single thrilling three-point loss in the past two weeks has sent the Tigers spiralling from eighth to 11^th, highlighting just how tight the race for the Wildcard positions is. But their fate is still on their own boot, with two of the three remaining games against teams above them on the ladder. None are easy, but none are unwinnable.
PREDICTION: 9-8-1 (11^th)

12^th, 8-7, 86.2%
STREAK: Lost 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: Bye; lost Gold Coast Suns (40, Manuka Oval); def Frankston (1, Kinetic Stadium); lost Box Hill Hawks (14, Giants Stadium); lost Casey Demons (96, Casey Fields); Bye; def Southport Sharks (49, Vailo Community Centre).
TO COME: Sydney Swans (Blacktown International Sportspark); Northern Bullants (Genis Steel Oval); Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)
SUMMARY: Despite sitting down in 12^th spot, the Giants will also have confidence of playing finals given all three opponents are out of the mix. But that doesn’t mean they will be easy, with the Swans coming off a huge win over Essendon and the Cats game being down at the Cattery. Beat the Swans and they probably make it.
PREDICTION: 10-8 (10^th)

13^th, 7-8-1, 82.0%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Northern Bullants (90, GMHBA Stadium); lost Brisbane Lions (35, Brighton Homes Arena); lost Essendon (10, GMHBA Stadium); lost North Melbourne (43, GMHBA Stadium); def Sydney Swans (8, SCG)
TO COME: Bye; Collingwood (Victoria Park); GWS Giants (GMHBA Stadium)
SUMMARY: If Footscray, Collingwood and Richmond all win in Round 20, the Cats will be out of business without kicking a ball in anger, despite their big percentage boost last week. Should they survive the bye, two games against fellow contenders mean they could still sneak in the back door with results going their way.
PREDICTION: 8-9-1 (14^th)

14^th, 7-9, 112.7%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Frankston (14, Kinetic Stadium); Bye; lost Richmond (13, Fankhauser Reserve); lost Williamstown (10, DSV Stadium); Bye; def Coburg (40, Fankhauser Reserve); lost GWS Giants (49, Vailo Community Centre)
TO COME: Essendon (Fankhauser Reserve); Bye; Collingwood (AIA Centre)
SUMMARY: Overcame a slow start against Frankston to stay alive for another week but their situation is the same as the Cats, needing to win out and have other results go their way. The Bombers at home is a danger game based on the past two seasons, while the Magpies is a 50-50 contest.
PREDICTION: 9-9 (13^th)

15^th, 6-10, 88.8%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Coburg (10, ETU Stadium); lost Carlton (36, IKON Park); Bye; lost Werribee (23, ETU Stadium); lost Box Hill Hawks (23, Box Hill City Oval); def Essendon (53, ETU Stadium)
TO COME: Bye; Richmond (ETU Stadium); Footscray (ETU Stadium).
SUMMARY: Out of contention after the loss to Carlton a fortnight ago, but still plenty to play for, with the chance to play finals spoiler for the Tigers and Bulldogs. The bye comes at the wrong time to give the Borough a boost after their women won the flag last week, but they will relish the opportunity to leave their mark on the season.
PREDICTION: 6-12 (15^th)

16^th, 4-12, 79.0%
STREAK: Lost 2
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Sydney Swans (82, Windy Hill); lost Williamstown (6, DSV Stadium); def Geelong Cats (10, GMHBA Stadium); Bye; def Gold Coast Suns (1, Windy Hill); lost Port Melbourne (53, ETU Stadium)
TO COME: Southport Sharks (Fankhauser Reserve); Bye; Coburg (Windy Hill)
SUMMARY: A narrow loss to Williamstown was a good effort but they were blown off the park by the Swans in their most disappointing performance of the year. They have a good record at Southport, so that is a chance to get back on track late in the season.
PREDICTION: 5-13 (16^th)

17^th, 3-12-1, 77.0%
STREAK: Lost 4
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Box Hill Hawks (47, Box Hill City Oval); lost Collingwood (16, AIA Centre); Bye; lost Casey Demons (34, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); lost Werribee (76, Avalon Airport Oval); drew Brisbane Lions (0, Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval).
TO COME: Northern Bullants (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); Bye; Williamstown (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval).
SUMMARY: Last week was a much stronger performance than the scoreboard suggests, and if they can repeat that then both their last two games are winnable, especially with a good recent record against the Seagulls.
PREDICTION: 4-13-1 (17^th)

18^th, 3-12, 71.8%
STREAK: Won 1
PAST FIVE MATCHES: def Essendon (82, Windy Hill); Bye; lost Footscray (62, Tramway Oval); def Richmond (21, Swinburne Centre); lost Geelong Cats (8, SCG); lost Collingwood (23, AIA Centre).
TO COME: GWS Giants (Blacktown International Sportspark); Gold Coast Suns (SCG); Werribee (Tramway Oval)
SUMMARY: Looked more like last year’s top four team than this year’s bottom four line-up in their big win over Essendon last week and they would love nothing more than destroying little brother’s finals hopes this week before finishing off against the top two.
PREDICTION: 3-15 (19^th)

19^th, 3-13, 68.5%
STREAK: Lost 9
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Southport (14, Kinetic Stadium); lost Werribee (44, Avalon Airport Oval); lost GWS Giants (1, Kinetic Stadium); lost Gold Coast Suns (107, Heritage Bank Stadium); lost Collingwood (95, Kinetic Stadium)
TO COME: Bye; Coburg (Piranha Park); Box Hill Hawks (Kinetic Stadium)
SUMMARY: Still competitive against much better credentialled teams, but they still can’t get over the line. Round 21 looms as a Grand Final for themselves and Coburg.
PREDICTION: 4-18 (18^th)

20^th, 2-12, 41.5%
STREAK: Lost 9
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Geelong Cats (90, GMHBA Stadium); lost Footscray Bulldogs (157, Genis Steel Oval); lost Werribee (144, Avalon Airport Oval); lost Brisbane Lions (128, Genis Steel Oval); lost Carlton (85, IKON Park).
TO COME: Sandringham (Wilson Storage Trevor Barker Beach Oval); GWS Giants (Genis Steel Oval); Bye.
SUMMARY: Another couple of tough days at the office for the poor old Bullants, but the positive is their final two games of the season are against teams outside the top 10, before they get a chance to reset.
PREDICTION: 2-16 (20^th)

21^st, 0-16, 54.4%
STREAK: Lost 16
PAST FIVE MATCHES: lost Port Melbourne (10, ETU Stadium); lost Casey Demons (42, Piranha Park); Bye; lost Carlton (52, Piranha Park); lost Footscray (32, DSV Stadium); lost Southport Sharks (40, Fankhauser Reserve)
TO COME: Bye; Frankston (Piranha Park); Essendon (Windy Hill)
SUMMARY: A strong effort against Borough without quite getting over the line. If they can produce that again both their remaining games are winnable and they can still avoid the wooden spoon.
PREDICTION: 0-18 (21^st)