ROUND eight is suddenly upon us, and with the middle of the ladder forming a logjam, there are some real finals-shaping games on offer.
Geelong and Carlton will play in a crucial clash – can the Cats stay in the finals race? Or will Carlton put one hand on the top four?
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And as Melbourne prepares for a Friday night date with Essendon, captain Kate Hore is just five goals away from becoming the first 100-goal player in the AFLW.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2
Hawthorn v Fremantle at Kinetic Stadium, 7:15pm AEST
Last time they met: Hawthorn 5.4 (34) def. Fremantle 3.7 (25), week six 2024
Hawthorn has been working hard to re-establish its best footy, and the return of Jasmine Fleming and Aileen Gilroy in recent weeks has been an important piece to the puzzle. Now, captain Emily Bates is looking at an extended period on the sidelines and big-bodied midfielder Daisy Flockart has earned a debut. So it's a new challenge for the Hawks who, although not tracking how they would like, are still sitting pretty with six wins from seven starts. Fremantle, meanwhile, has lost Derby best on ground medallist Orlagh Lally for the clash, taking away some dash and chaos from the side.
The Aine McDonagh match-up looms as a key part of Fremantle's preparation, with McDonagh's ability to turn games Hawthorn's way a significant factor. Ash Brazill appears the most likely option; given her form and athletic ability both in the air and on the ground, she is well equipped to take on the Irishwoman. Meanwhile, the idea of an Eliza West v Kiara Bowers matchup is mouth-watering.
Tip: Even without their captain, the Hawks will rally. Hawthorn by eight points.
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3
Melbourne v Essendon at Ikon Park, 7:15pm AEST
Last time they met: Essendon 11.6 (72) def. Melbourne 1.1 (7), week five 2024
Last year, the Bombers handed the Demons their biggest ever loss, and kept them to their lowest ever score, but this year the tables have turned. Instead of Melbourne being the team on its knees and struggling for player availability, it is Essendon who has been seriously tested for depth. Despite these challenges, the Bombers got closer last week to North Melbourne than any other team has in the past two years, and they have a work ethic that cannot be questioned. Melbourne, meanwhile, enjoyed a club-record 10 individual goalkickers in its win over Gold Coast, exemplifying just how potent its attacking game can be.
The Demons are a high contested ball team, led well by Tyla Hanks and Kate Hore, but supported right across the park. Here is where they can get a hold of the Bombers, who generally give up contested footy to their opposition. The ability to transition from a ball-winning mindset to defensive strength will be key in slowing Melbourne's attack, and keep a close eye on Hore, who is just five goals away from 100 majors in the AFLW – a first for the League.
Tip: The Demons are the clear second seed. Melbourne by 25 points.
SATURDAY OCTOBER 4
Greater Western Sydney v St Kilda at Henson Park, 1:05pm AEST
Last time they met: St Kilda 7.7 (49) def. Greater Western Sydney 2.3 (15), week seven 2024
These sides enjoyed differing fortunes last week. The Giants could have made history against a flu-riddled West Coast but faltered, while the Saints were on their heels at three-quarter time and pulled off the biggest final quarter comeback in AFLW history. St Kilda is running on belief, despite injuries testing its depth, which can be a dangerous thing to come up against.
The Giants are typically trying to move the ball by hand, which could present a problem in the face of St Kilda's huge tackle numbers this season (it averages a record 85.7 per game). This could force the Giants to overuse the footy in an attempt to escape the squeeze, and ultimately create repeat turnover. As part of this, Tyanna Smith can be a real playmaker for the Saints. Underrated in her strength and power from the contest – and willingness to run both ways – she can transition forward consistently and hit the scoreboard herself. It would be fair to expect Kaitlyn Srhoj to put some time into her.
Tip: The Saints trust they can get it done. St Kilda by 10 points.
North Melbourne v Sydney at UTAS Stadium, 3:05pm AEST
Last time they met: North Melbourne 14.3 (87) def. Sydney 4.3 (27), week seven 2024
North Melbourne has been held scoreless in just two quarters this year – the third against Geelong in round one, and the first last week against a depleted Essendon outfit. The Swans will have no doubt gone to work on what allowed that to happen, and will come in with a plan of attack. Notably, Sydney is on the ropes, with three consecutive losses after a perfect opening month of the season. This game has become increasingly important if its aspirations of returning to finals is to become reality. History isn't on its side, however, with an average losing margin of 63 points against coach Scott Gowans' old club.
The Roos are particularly good at starving opposition teams of uncontested ball, but this is something Sydney needs to do against them. North Melbourne is winning a record average of 184.6 uncontested possessions per game, leading to its neat use around the ground and forward entries. Cutting this off will be crucial, as will limiting the impact of Emma Kearney coming out of the back half, as much of this free ball use starts with her.
Tip: The Swans will have learned from last week, but it won't be enough. North Melbourne by 20 points.
Gold Coast v Brisbane at People First Stadium, 5:05pm AEST
Last time they met: Brisbane 6.8 (44) def. Gold Coast 4.4 (28), week seven 2024
In the sixth iteration of the QClash, Gold Coast narrowed the gap on Brisbane, losing by just 16 points – the narrowest margin between the two since the very first derby ended in a draw. This year, however, it has the potential to go in the other direction. The Suns are smarting having been held goalless last week, and are now without Jac Dupuy (concussion), Clara Fitzpatrick (hand) and Claudia Whitfort (hamstring). More positively, they're expected to regain key pair Katie Lynch and Darcie Davies. Notably, Gold Coast has fallen away drastically in final quarters this year, going at just 25 per cent for the term across the season, while Brisbane tends to come home with a wet sail.
The Suns are generally allowing their opponents large numbers of inside 50 entries (giving up a record 42.1 per game), and allowing teams to score relatively freely from those, so this is something the Lions can take full advantage of with their run and gun game style. Jade Ellenger, who is in career-best form, and Sophie Conway, who seemed to get her groove back last week, have the potential to do some real damage. In the absence of Claudia Whitfort, expect to see first-year player Havana Harris and co-captain Niamh McLaughlin spend more time in the midfield.
Tip: The Lions have kickstarted their season, and now they'll roll into the QClash with confidence. Brisbane by 30 points.
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs at Alberton Oval, 7:15pm AEST
Last time they met: Port Adelaide 7.4 (46) def. Western Bulldogs 0.6 (6), week two 2024
Like Gold Coast, Port Adelaide is a late fade team, as exemplified by last week's loss despite a 27-point three-quarter-time lead. The Power gave up six goals in the fourth quarter to St Kilda, and the Bulldogs will see that as a great opportunity to snatch a win. But for the Bulldogs, it's generally a third-quarter slump that hurts them. For both, the gap between their best and worst footy is significant, and there is a clear focus on attaining consistency from game-to-game, quarter-to-quarter.
The big question is - where does Ellie Blackburn play? Last week, with a full-time return to the midfield, the former Bulldogs captain kicked a career-high four goals and was a clear firestarter in the club's biggest win since 2022. She tends to become a more dangerous attacking player when starting in the middle, and is able to lose her direct opponent on transition. The Power generally has a broader attacking spread, averaging 4.4 goalkickers per game compared to the Bulldogs' 3.3, and Gemma Houghton and Indy Tahau have become a formidable duo inside 50, but they are conducive to leaking scores the other way. For this reason, the Dogs need to be focused on attack – as they were last week – to exploit this vulnerability.
Tip: The Power won't be overrun for the second week in a row. Port Adelaide by eight points.
SUNDAY OCTOBER 5
Richmond v Adelaide at Ikon Park, 1:05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Adelaide 6.5 (41) def. Richmond 2.0 (12), round two 2023
Adelaide's late press has caught multiple teams out this year and notably, the Tigers are yet to score in a fourth quarter of their two match-ups. It is an ominous piece of history that will no doubt be playing on the minds of both sides as they prepare for their first clash since 2023. Richmond hasn't necessarily adapted to how opposition sides have defended them this year, and the Crows trio of Zoe Prowse, Chelsea Biddell and Sarah Allan are adept at controlling the air in the back half of the ground. Because of this, the Tigers need to get dangerous on the deck and use run and carry to propel the ball forward. They cannot get caught kicking long and high to contests, because more often than not, the Crows will win out.
Adelaide is winning more outside ball than it did last year, with Niamh Kelly's career-best performance last week a key driver of the side's win, while Maddy Newman is also incredibly dangerous in space. Richmond must defend the width of the ground, and at contest, make it difficult for the Crows to spit the ball out to their runners.
Tip: A push toward yet another top-four finish continues for the Crows. Adelaide by 27 points.
Geelong v Carlton at GMHBA Stadium, 3:05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Carlton 4.5 (29) def. Geelong 0.5 (5), week three 2024
Strangely enough, Geelong hasn't beaten Carlton since 2019, in its first season in the AFLW. Last year's edition, in awful weather where the Cats failed to goal, was a major dent in their finals aspirations, and now they face the Blues in another must-win game. Geelong is sitting a game and percentage outside of the top eight, with a tight squeeze in that part of the ladder, while Carlton is trying to push for a top-four spot.
The midfield battle will be interesting. It is likely that Carlton captain Abbie McKay will make her return from a hamstring concern, bolstering the line against the key trio of Georgie Prespakis, Amy McDonald and Nina Morrison for Geelong. In defence, the Blues have become a dangerous slingshot team, leaning on the use of Harriet Cordner, Poppy Scholz, Dayna Finn and Erone Fitzpatrick to send the ball the length of the ground with speed. Carlton does, however, offer opposition sides opportunities inside 50, and Geelong simply must make the most of its conversion if it's to stay in the finals race.
Tip: The Blues will continue to hold the wood over Geelong. Carlton by 13 points.
West Coast v Collingwood at Mineral Resources Park, 3:05pm AWST
Last time they met: West Coast 5.6 (36) def. Collingwood 3.1 (19), week four 2024
West Coast landed its biggest ever win and highest ever score last week when it was battling the flu, while Collingwood had a disappointing return against the Western Bulldogs. What was stark for the Pies was their inability to consistently win one-on-one contests across the field. They were panicked and lacked cleanliness with ball in hand, so couldn't chain possession. This is something that must be tightened up as they prepare to face an Eagles side that tends to fly home.
The Eagles are more conducive to consistent attack across games, with plenty of weapons to rotate ahead of the ball, including Ella Roberts, Kellie Gibson and an expected return for Lucia Painter. This is not something Collingwood can boast, with Ash Centra being relied on heavily to be a presence in attack, and ideally Kalinda Howarth will return from her knee scare. The Pies need to ensure they maintain their forward structure and don't get drawn too high up the ground to ensure they have options to kick to when they get a fast break from the back half.
Tip: The Eagles will solidify a place in the top eight. West Coast by 18 points.
