IT WAS no coincidence that Essendon's form drop-off in the back half of this season came as Jordan Ridley, Sam Draper and Jake Stringer were largely absent through injury.
The Bombers' important trio played a combined 12 games out of a possible 30 after Essendon's round 14 bye, wiping out a key member of coach Brad Scott's line-up from every line of the ground. But the injury-hit group also revealed the Bombers' challenge in covering their best players when not at peak fitness or form.
Scott will have a better understanding of his list needs after his maiden season in charge of the Bombers.
"Your first year is always going to be a bit of a year of discovery and my attitude was... we didn't look to make wholesale changes with the list or whole football department. Now we have 12 months' worth of information to make some positive change and we certainly have some opportunity to do that," Scott said in the lead-up to Essendon's final game.
"The way the competition's structured you can't simply plug and play all the time, but we have a lot more information to make sure we can improve and I'm really confident we can do that."
He will also have a sense of Essendon's depth. Tracing the Bombers' past five years of drafting from 2017-21 (not including 2022 as they have had only one season in the system) shows gaps.
Across that time, the Bombers have made 34 selections via the national draft, rookie draft, pre-season supplemental selection period and mid-season draft (not including category B rookies). There are 14 players who are still listed from that group, with Matt Guelfi (pick 76 in 2017) having played the most games of any pick-up with 96 appearances at senior level.
The additions have played an average of 18 games a player, with the explosive Archie Perkins next most at 62 games (he has played the second-most games of any 2020 draftee behind Swan Errol Gulden).
Success has come in pre-season and mid-season rookie picks for Essendon – Nic Martin, Sam Durham and Will Snelling have become senior regulars, with Martin and Durham impact players. With just national and end-of-year rookie selections tallied, the Bombers have picked 25 players who have played on average 15.8 games since the start of 2017.
None of the class of 2018 remain at Essendon, while injury has affected the development of Zach Reid, Nik Cox and Harrison Jones. Ben Hobbs, who shapes as a long-term midfielder, is the only player from the 2021 national draft still at the club.
Essendon's later starts to the 2017 and 2018 drafts came after the club's active trade periods at that time, when it brought Stringer, Adam Saad, Devon Smith and Dylan Shiel into the club over a two-year period.
Maintaining a strong draft success rate whilst also being busy traders has been a key factor to the flag contenders this year.
Melbourne, in terms of games won over the past three seasons, has been the benchmark of the AFL, winning 52 games since the start of 2021 – the most of any club.
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The Demons, too, were busy in the 2017-18 trade periods, landing key defensive pair Jake Lever and Steven May and using three first-round selections to do so. The duo went on to be pivotal figures in the club's drought-breaking premiership in 2021.
In the 2017-21 time period, the Demons brought in 29 players across the national, rookie, pre-season supplemental periods and mid-season drafts, of which 20 are still AFL-listed (including Luke Jackson and Corey Wagner at Fremantle, Oskar Baker at the Western Bulldogs and Toby Bedford at GWS).
Their recruits have played 922 games at an average of 32 a player, with Bayley Fritsch, Charlie Spargo, Harrison Petty, Tom Sparrow, James Jordon, Jackson, Kozzy Pickett, Trent Rivers and Jake Bowey all going on to feature in the Grand Final triumph. All bar Jackson and Pickett were selected from No.21 onwards.
Melbourne has not had as much success from its pre-season and mid-season picks as the Bombers, with its average games for each player at 43 if not including their nine additions in those drafts.
Melbourne's ladder position throughout the period on average has been eight, with Essendon's at 9.6, although Essendon's average pick number at the national draft has been 43 to Melbourne's 40. The Demons have had five first-round picks in that window compared to Essendon's four.
As the benchmark of the competition over the past three years – Melbourne is so far the only team to have claimed three successive top-four finishes in the home and away season and also clinched a premiership in that period – the Demons' mid-draft selections across that timeframe have been a central factor to their success and the depth within their squad as they reach their early to mid-20s.
ESSENDON
2017
Pick 49 – Jordan Houlahan – 0 games
Pick 66 – Brandon Zerk-Thatcher – 51 games
Pick 76 – Matt Guelfi – 96 games
Rookie – Trent Mynott – 0 games
2018
Pick 38 – Irving Mosquito – 4 games
Pick 60 – Noah Gown – 0 games
Pick 72 – Brayden Ham – 45 games
Rookie – Tom Jok – 1 game
Rookie – Matt Dea – 0 games after selection
Pre-season rookie – Zac Clarke – 9 games after selection
2019
Pick 30 – Harrison Jones – 31 games
Pick 38 – Nick Bryan – 14 games
Pick 56 – Ned Cahill – 6 games
Pick 63 – Lachie Johnson – 0 games
Rookie – Mitch Hibberd – 5 games after selection
Mid-season rookie – Will Snelling – 60 games after selection
Pre-season rookie – Jacob Townsend – 12 games after selection
Pre-season rookie – Henry Crauford – 0 games
2020
Pick 8 – Nik Cox – 33 games
Pick 9 – Archie Perkins – 62 games
Pick 10 – Zach Reid – 8 games
Pick 39 – Josh Eyre – 0 games
Pick 53 – Cody Brand – 0 games
Rookie – Martin Gleeson – 6 games after selection
Rookie – Dylan Clarke – 4 games after selection
Pre-season rookie – Kaine Baldwin – 8 games
Pre-season rookie – Alec Waterman – 22 games
2021
Pick 13 – Ben Hobbs – 35 games
Pick 46 – Alastair Lord – 1 game
Pick 50 – Garrett McDonagh – 0 games
Rookie – Patrick Voss – 0 games
Mid-season rookie – Sam Durham – 49 games
Pre-season rookie – Nic Martin – 44 games
Pre-season rookie – Tex Wanganeen – 5 games
TOTAL PLAYERS: 34
PLAYERS STILL AFL LISTED: 14
TOTAL GAMES/AVERAGE: 611/18 games per player
MELBOURNE
2017
Pick 29 – Charlie Spargo – 96 games
Pick 31 – Bayley Fritsch – 124 games
Pick 37 – Harrison Petty – 62 games
Pick 48 – Oskar Baker – 15 games at Melbourne, 33 total
2018
Pick 27 – Tom Sparrow – 72 games
Pick 33 – James Jordon – 64 games
Pick 53 – Aaron Nietschke – 0 games
Pick 56 – Marty Hore – 14 games
Pick 75 – Toby Bedford – 18 games at Melbourne, 34 total
Rookie – Kade Chandler – 31 games
Pre-season rookie – Corey Wagner – 11 games at Melbourne, 20 total after selection
Pre-season rookie – Jay Lockhart – 22 games
2019
Pick 3 – Luke Jackson – 52 games at Melbourne, 75 total
Pick 12 – Kysaiah Pickett – 83 games
Pick 32 – Trent Rivers – 75 games
Mid-season rookie – Kyle Dunkley – 5 games
Pre-season rookie – Mitch Brown – 9 games after selection
Pre-season rookie – Harley Bennell – 5 games after selection
2020
Pick 21 – Jake Bowey – 45 games
Pick 22 – Bailey Laurie – 4 games
Pick 34 – Fraser Rosman – 0 games
Pre-season rookie – Majak Daw – 0 games after selection
Pre-season rookie – Deakyn Smith – 0 games
2021
Pick 19 – Jacob van Rooyen – 19 games
Pick 39 – Blake Howes – 0 games
Pick 65 – Taj Woewodin – 4 games
Rookie – Judd McVee – 23 games
Mid-season rookie – Kye Declase – 0 games
Mid-season rookie – Daniel Turner – 3 games
TOTAL PLAYERS: 29
PLAYERS STILL AFL LISTED: 20
TOTAL GAMES/AVERAGE: 922/32
