AFL.com.au's Callum Twomey takes a look at a Lion's career high, whether the Cats should go all-in and more in Cal-culations

CAN MITCHELL MASTERMIND THE LIONS' DEMISE?

SAM MITCHELL is about to have his genius put to the test.

Mitchell masterminded a shock takedown of Fremantle in the qualifying final when his Hawks headed to Perth and ambushed the Dockers. But a task of similar proportions now awaits the Hawks in Saturday's preliminary final bout with Brisbane.

And it is a bout. And Mitchell knows his Hawks will not only have to take some swings, they'll have to wear some as well. Brisbane showed as much in its KO of the Crows in Saturday night's semi-final.

Under Mitchell, the Hawks very quickly turned around their fortunes from rebuilding in 2022, improving in 2023 and then becoming a finals force in 2024. Those back-to-back do-or-die games in September of that season were many of his players' first taste of finals and they lifted to the occasion.

Last year, another three finals were under the belt for the Hawks, who beat Greater Western Sydney and Adelaide in successive away trips. Their preliminary final clash against Geelong swung in the second half but was again valuable experience for a young and developing group.

But the youth are now hardened September operators.

Among Mitchell's to-do list this week is the following: stop or at least quieten Brisbane's bevy of small/half-forwards who turned it on against Adelaide; limit the influence of midfield firestarter Will Ashcroft, who has essentially become the Lions' best player; restrict Harris Andrews' ability to control the game from the backline; plan for another Cam Rayner finals showing; and be ready for the Brisbane burst.

Champion Data showed over the last two years the Lions are now 21 wins and two losses when their pressure is over 180 in the first 15 minutes of a game, so the tell-tale signs are clear early with Chris Fagan's side.

Hawthorn didn't add to its squad in last year's Trade Period after missing Zach Merrett, but the Hawks have gotten better in 2026 through natural evolution, their best players are peaking at the right time and if James Sicily and Nick Watson play like they did against the Dockers against the Lions, then they will be in the battle.

Brisbane's 67-point thrashing of the Hawks in round 22 is the only defeat Hawthorn has registered in its past eight games. If Mitchell can orchestrate the takedown of the Lions on the verge of their fourth straight Grand Final, then the quickest rebuild in modern footy will deserve flag favouritism on centre stage.

FORMER DEES LOCK IN FOR HEAVYWEIGHT BATTLE

WHEN Luke Jackson departed Melbourne as a premiership player at the end of 2022, the Demons had a bold plan to replace him with Brodie Grundy to partner Max Gawn.

That experiment only lasted a year as Grundy and Gawn didn't blend and the former Magpie played in the VFL and was overlooked for a final. He was then traded to Sydney for his third club in three years.

Now, three years after that trade, both former Dees ruckmen will face-off in one of the biggest battles in the preliminary final between the Swans and Dockers. Whoever clinches the points in the ruck will go a long way to sending their team to this year's Grand Final.

Jackson's dominant performance against Geelong was that of a matchwinner: two goals, 25 disposals, 35 hitouts, eight clearances and a crucial goal assist. But Grundy might be his best match as an athletic, strong-bodied, jumping ruckman who can get around the ground and impact games in many ways.

The pair shared the points in their last clash, when Fremantle beat Sydney in round 18 at Optus Stadium, but along with Gawn have clearly been the top three rucks in the game this year.

Champion Data shows both players are in arguably career-best form.

Grundy ranks second in the AFL's rucks for Player Ratings (15.8), disposals, contested possessions, hitouts and score involvements, third for clearances and first for score assists.

Jackson is marginally behind Grundy for Player Ratings (15.7) and is third for disposals and fourth for contested possessions, but is the second best ruckman in the league for centre clearances and leads Grundy for score involvements. He has also kicked 27 goals for the year now compared to Grundy's nine, making Jackson an obvious danger wherever he plays.

Jackson's cred as a big game finals player was already clear with his breathtaking third quarter in the 2021 Grand Final win for the Demons. But he did it again in the third quarter against the Cats, when he had eight disposals, six contested possessions, four first possessions, four clearances, one score assist, two goals and four score involvements. It was the highest rated third quarter of his season.

The task is over to Grundy on Friday night to at least neutralise one of the game's genuine match-turners. Even more so after the Dockers' (and Cats', for that matter) centre bounce game scoring explosion in the semi-final.

In the Dockers' win, they had 37.5 per cent of their score come from centre bounces – their fourth highest since 2011. The Cats' tally of 34.9 per cent of their score was their second highest percentage in the same timeframe.

Jackson and Grundy were ships in the night at Melbourne, one brought in to replace the other as the Demon colt returned to Western Australia and the Collingwood mainstay was forced out of the Pies. Now the ex-Dees duo are the headline battle with a Grand Final on the line.

RAYNER'S CAREER-HIGH

CAM RAYNER was picked for nights like those.

When Brisbane held the No.1 pick in 2017 – the year of Dusty – Lions recruiting boss Steve Conole was all in on Rayner, the bullocking, powerful, explosive gamewrecker who had dominated the season.

Andrew Brayshaw, perhaps the safer choice given his running and consistency, was the other leading contender by that November's draft.

But Conole backed in his pick and Rayner continues to show why, with the 26-year-old doing it on the big stage again.

Rayner produced what Champion Data rate as the best game of his career in Brisbane's rout of Adelaide, with a Player Ratings score of 22.9 – beating his previous best of 21.3 against the Swans in round 19, 2024.

He was also the highest rated player in the semi-final win, with 22 disposals, eight contested possessions, two goals, four score assists and 11 score involvements. His dad John also got the three votes, donning a full lion's suit in the crowd to the amusement of his son.

The Rayner performance follows other big moments in recent September showings from the Lions' No.16, including three goals in a qualifying final win over Port Adelaide in 2023, his vital two goals in the 2024 preliminary final win over Geelong when he stood up late and being a consistent goalkicker in last year's run to the Lions' second flag.

Rayner didn't have the Grand Final he wanted in 2023's tight decider against Collingwood, a game he later admitted he watched months after by himself to see what went wrong, but since then has been a key part of the Lions' success.

Brayshaw, of course, is a key player in Fremantle's chase and is a star of the Dockers, but Rayner has validated Conole's view that he would change games.

And chosen 14 picks after Rayner? Zac Bailey – whose starring performance against the Crows came after he locked in an eight-year extension, meaning by the time that deal is done he will have played for 17 years at the Lions.

DO GEELONG GO ALL-IN NOW OR WAIT?

GEELONG'S attention now narrows on its chase for Rowan Marshall and Toby Greene.

Marshall has told the Saints he is seeking a trade but had known the Cats' top priority was attracting Zak Butters to the club. With that now off the table after Butters' bombshell that he had nominated the Western Bulldogs on Saturday, the Cats have more to play with to get a deal done on Marshall, who has a year to run on his contract at the Saints.

Mitchell Edwards has shown this year he promises to be an excellent long-term ruckman, and he wasn't the first this season to be shown up by Luke Jackson, but Friday night's loss for the Cats highlighted the gap the Cats have in the experienced ruckmen market. Marshall can fix it.

Greene's circumstances are different. Unlike Marshall, who has had eyes on Geelong regardless of Butters' call, Greene has spoken openly about wanting to know about Butters' plans as he weighed up his own.

Greene can take a three-year deal at Geelong or the same length deal at the Giants but has been torn about the prospect of leaving GWS and the Giants going on to taste success without him.

But in a period of list transition that seems unlikely in the short term, as the Giants take one step back in terms of their experience to ultimately take two steps forward. And in any case, predicting another team's success is a fraught case as many have discovered previously.

Neither Marshall or Greene (nor, of course, young Hawks tall Calsher Dear who is weighing Geelong's interest against Melbourne's) is filling the role that the Cats had pegged for Butters, so what they do next will be fascinating.

Geelong doesn't sit on its hands so does it get busy with the money it had committed for Butters or wait until next year and having a big play at Matt Rowell, Logan Morris or Tom Green?

Do they have a late dip at changing Zach Merrett's eyes on Hawthorn and look at the Essendon champion? The Cats had reached out to Merrett to discuss his plans late in the season as a potential back-up if the Butters move fell over.

Geelong tends not to dwell on the things that don't go its way. Its performance against Fremantle on Friday was terrific and worthy of a progress to another preliminary final, but alas the loss into the loss of Butters now gives them scope to work out their next moves.  

CROWS' COACHING CALL

ADELAIDE is sticking by Matthew Nicks.

The Crows' letter to members on Sunday, less than 24 hours after their semi-final smashing at the hands of Brisbane, confirmed that the club would be coached by Nicks next year. He has 2027 to run on his current contract.

But the Crows' loss against Brisbane highlighted where Adelaide is – and where it needs to get to work.

The Crows played five games against the eventual top four teams on the ladder and then again faced the Lions this weekend. Their record of one win and five defeats against the best four teams of 2026 makes clear their finishing position in sixth is basically spot on.

Their only win against any of the Dockers, Lions, Swans and Hawks came against Sydney in round 19, when the expected scores had them losing by six points (76 to 70).

Nicks was at a loss to explain the Crows' start, where they conceded five goals in the first eight minutes to all but give up the game and their season. In that timeframe the Lions registered 25 disposals to Adelaide's 15, seven inside 50s to Adelaide's zero, five marks to Adelaide's none, and 16 forward half disposals to Adelaide's one.

Nicks felt the heat rise at the back end of this season and will head into his eighth year as Crows coach certain it will again if his group cannot stack up against the very best more often.

After being chips in on Zac Bailey as a free agent, the Crows hold pick No.13 at the draft and could have some moving pieces at the trade table, with Nick Murray expected to seek a trade to North Melbourne on a five-year offer and Luke Pedlar weighing interest from Port Adelaide and Essendon.

THE SHOT CLOCK NEEDS A TWEAK

KUDOS to Patrick Voss for knowing the rule and exploiting it.

As Voss wound down the seconds of Friday night's semi-final win over Geelong, the Dockers key forward strolled back to the top of his mark and took his full 30 seconds.

He knew the rule stated that he could take 30 seconds to start his walk in to goal, but he also knew there was no rush after that. So the in-your-face Docker very slowly and steadily started his walk in before kicking the goal.

When Voss had the ball in his hands there were 52 seconds on the clock. By the time Voss had kicked his fourth goal, there were seven seconds on the clock.

We've written before in Cal-culations that the rule needs some adjustments this off-season, as the reality is after 45 seconds of walking back then walking in, Voss could have easily turned around and passed to a teammate close by for them to repeat the process and take another near minute off the clock.

Greg Swann brought in a swathe of rule adjustments last off-season and tweaking this gaming of the shot clock should be on the AFL football boss's agenda ahead of 2027.