Two teams with the same 2-6 win-loss record and a similar age demographic should produce a good contest at the Gabba. The Lions had their two-game winning streaked snapped emphatically by Essendon last Sunday, while the Saints were blown away in the first quarter by high-flying West Coast before battling manfully for the final three quarters in their most recent start. Both teams are young, have shown glimpses of exciting footy during the first eight rounds and would see this as a winnable match. It might just come down to who's more desperate
WHERE AND WHEN: Gabba, Sunday, May 31, 1.10pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE TIMES
R6, 2014, Brisbane Lions 12.10 (82) d St Kilda 11.13 (79) at Westpac Stadium
R19, 2013, Brisbane Lions 16.12 (108) d St Kilda 11.11 (77) at the Gabba
R16, 2012, St Kilda Lions 16.9 (105) d Brisbane 14.8 (92) at the Gabba
R5, 2011, St Kilda 13.11 (89) d Brisbane Lions 11.10 (76) at the Gabba
R15, 2010, St Kilda 11.13 (79) d Brisbane Lions 10.5 (65) at the Gabba
THE SIX POINTS
1. Last time they met the Lions won the contest, but St Kilda dominated statistically, winning the disposals (389-338), marks (93-59), scoring shots (24-22) and inside 50s (60-57).
2. The Lions continue to struggle to score in 2015, ranked 17th with 70.7 points a game. St Kilda averages 81.7 points a game and is ranked 12th.
3. The home ground advantage is significant for the Lions, as they hold a 14-5 winning record against the Saints at the Gabba. They lead the head-to-head contests 22-20 overall.
4. The Lions are the worst team in 2015 for contested marks, taking just 63 through eight rounds. The Saints are equal eighth with 78.
5. St Kilda is responsible for more clangers than any other team so far in 2015, averaging 52.1 a game. They are equal ninth for disposal efficiency ay 72 per cent.
6. Following his three goals against Essendon, Lions small forward Josh Green has cracked the top 100 in the AFL Official Player Ratings. Green has moved to a career high 96th, which is sixth among small forwards.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Now in the ninth season of his injury-interrupted career, the big Lions ruckman finally reaches his 100th game. He's jumped many hurdles to reach the milestone and will face another difficult challenge on Sunday. With Stefan Martin doing so well in the ruck and the Lions decimated by injuries to their tall forwards, Leuenberger will have to step up in the forward 50 to provide a strong target and help his team kick a winning score.
PREDICTION: Brisbane Lions by 14 points