THE MARK has been taken 50 metres out, the siren has gone and your team is down by five points – which player do you trust most to nail the shot?
If you're thinking Lance Franklin, Ben Brown or Josh Kennedy, you might need to reconsider.
Of the players to register at least 10 shots from outside 50 this season, Geelong's Mitch Duncan is the most accurate player with a stunning 75 per cent conversion rate.
Mitch Duncan rides one home against the Swans. Picture: AFL Photos
Duncan's accuracy has been remarkable, with nine of his 12 long bombs being on target.
Taking a look at Stats Insider's goalkicking chart, Duncan has missed just one shot out of 12 on the run this year.
Duncan's 2018 goalkicking numbers were in stark contrast – he converted just 30 per cent of his shots from outside 50 last season.
His accuracy from shots in general play was 42 per cent, that's 50 per cent lower than his 2019 figures.
The top five most accurate players to take at least 10 shots from outside 50 this year are Duncan, Fremantle's Cam McCarthy (66.7 per cent), Sydney's Sam Reid (64.7 per cent), St Kilda's Tim Membrey (64.3 per cent) and Essendon's Mitch Brown (64.3 per cent).
Accuracy from outside 50
Number of goals from outside 50
Number of shots from outside 50
Franklin (45.5 per cent), Kennedy (39.1 per cent) and Brown (34.8 per cent) are much further down the list.
Jeremy Cameron has taken the most shots from outside 50 with 37 attempts, but he's tracking at just 32.4 per cent.
Crows captain Taylor Walker has been much better – he's taken the second most shots from distance with 35 and he's tracking at a very respectable 48.6 per cent.
Walker's 17 goals from outside 50 leads the League in 2019.
Taylor Walker takes a shot at goal against Richmond. Picture: AFL Photos
It might be a little surprising, but maligned Carlton goalkicker Levi Casboult is a better chance to kick a goal from outside 50 than inside.
Eight of Casboult's 13 long-range shots (see graphic below) have gone between the big sticks, while just six of his 12 shorter attempts have been converted.
Carlton's Jack Silvagni and North Melbourne's Shaun Higgins have the lowest accuracy at 10 per cent, with both players nailing just one out of their 10 shots from outside the arc.