MELBOURNE and Carlton enter the finals series coming from different directions but now on equal footing in a do-or-die wildcard final. 

The Demons defied expectations from the early rounds under first-year coach Steven King to quickly rise into finals contention and push for a double chance. The Dees let their grip on a top-six spot slip with a costly round 24 defeat to the Bulldogs and will now have to take the longer route through September after being the first side to finish seventh and face the wildcard round. 

The Blues left their run toward the finals much later in a campaign that started with one win in their first nine matches and saw the end of coach Michael Voss' tenure. But a stunning turnaround with 11 wins and a draw in their next 14 matches under caretaker-turned-contracted coach Josh Fraser was enough to lock in a wildcard place with one round remaining.

Melbourne has been hit hard by injuries at the worst time of year with key pillars Jake Lever and Matt Jefferson both in a race against time to be fit for the wildcard clash at the same time as spearhead Jacob van Rooyen is suspended. Carlton recruit Will Hayward has been critical to the side's resurgence but faces a fitness test this week, while Nick Haynes is expected to return after overcoming an ankle issue.

Where and when: MCG, Saturday August 29, 7.35pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 3: Carlton 11.11 (77) lost to Melbourne 15.10 (100) at the MCG

Melbourne gave an early glimpse of what was to come in its surprise rise up the ladder, while Carlton set the tone for the first half of its season when it coughed up what would usually be a match-winning advantage. The Blues booted the first seven goals of the game to open up as much as a 43-point lead as the Demons only booted their first major on the cusp of the main break. But the newly free-flowing Demons were not done yet, as they piled on 14 goals in the second half with Kysaiah Pickett leading the charge from the midfield. The dynamo gathered 19 disposals, five clearances and a goal during the second half to help turn the game in what became the first of the Blues' seven consecutive defeats that would cost Voss his job.

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Melbourne

The Demons surpassed most expectations this season on their way to claiming 15 wins while playing a more eye-catching and damaging brand of football than in recent years. Faster ball movement especially when rebounding out of defence has lifted Melbourne to a No.4 ranking for inside 50s and No.5 for inside 50 differential as their games are more often played in their forward half. But the Demons were handed a reminder that they still need to make the most of their opportunities when they finished +9 for inside 50s against the Bulldogs in a frustrating defeat last week. 

Carlton

The Blues looked more likely to earn the wooden spoon than a wildcard spot when they sat 16th with a 1-8 record before Fraser was handed the reins. A shift away from a combative gameplan toward a more free-flowing style has seen Carlton become the No.2-ranked side for transitioning the ball from the defensive 50 to the forward 50 in the 15 rounds since the new coach took charge. The swift ball movement has helped turn the Blues into the form side of the competition with 11 wins and a draw in their past 14 matches the best record of all teams in that time.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Melbourne

The Demons surged back into contention off the back of an exciting new brand of football that helped them become the fourth-highest scoring team in the competition. But there are mounting concerns over whether King's side can score as heavily with a forward line missing the suspended Jacob van Rooyen (42 goals) and potentially injured youngster Matt Jefferson (18). The Demons will need the in-form Harrison Petty (25) and a revitalised Bayley Fritsch (35) to shoulder the load as focal points in attack. Veteran Tom McDonald (2) could even be called on to return to a forward role just as he played when the Demons broke through for a premiership five years ago.

Carlton

The Blues' onball brigade was seen as central to their problems during a woeful start to the season with criticism suggesting it was too one-paced and lacking in dynamism. But with Sam Walsh back to his tireless best and hurting the opposition more with each disposal, and Jagga Smith arguably the best young midfielder in the league, Carlton now looks like a different side. Captain Patrick Cripps continues to lead the way as a contested beast and George Hewett has proven the doubters wrong since being backed by Fraser, as the Blues finally have the midfield balance and game plan to challenge the better teams.

PREDICTION

Melbourne began the season as an ultra-attacking early surprise packet but Carlton grabbed the momentum through the second half of the year with its own blistering ball movement. The Demons have been banged up in recent weeks and will miss Jacob van Rooyen as they turn to a make-shift forward line, while the Blues are the hottest team in the competition and have few injury concerns. Carlton by seven points.

WHAT a difference 153 days can make.

Last time these two sides faced off, back in round three, Carlton under Michael Voss gave up a 43-point lead in what was fast becoming a characteristic second-half fadeout. After an off-season of what many saw as too much change to overcome, Melbourne was beginning to defy expectations under first-year coach Steven King.

DEMONS v BLUES Full match coverage and stats

Instead, in Saturday night's wildcard final, it was recently confirmed senior coach Josh Fraser's Blues taking the win, ending Melbourne's season with a 19-point win in front of 91,733 at the MCG.

The Blues rode the waves of momentum that come with finals, and after conceding four unanswered goals to start the match, held the Demons to just three more for the match and rose to the occasion to run out 10.14 (74) to 7.13 (55) winners.

Fraser notched up his 12th win in the role, since taking over as interim coach as the Blues reeled at one win and eight losses that cost Voss his job. 

Jagga Smith was crowned Telstra AFL Rising Star on Tuesday night, and he reminded everyone just why on Saturday night. Providing silver service to his side with 29 disposals and nine clearances, he sealed the deal with a goal with 90 seconds on the clock to send the crowd into raptures. It was a night made sweeter after missing his entire first season due to an ACL injury.

It was a full-team effort for the Blues on the night. Midfield maestro Sam Walsh finished with 39 disposals, seven clearances and three tackles. Ollie Hollands was also busy, stamping what has been a shaky position in the side at times with 18 touches, four tackles, 534m gained and a goal.

Demons captain Max Gawn battled all day, finishing with 31 hitouts and six clearances, but to no avail. Cooper Lord curtailed the impact of Kysaiah Pickett, who has so often dominated the midfield at the feet of Gawn this season. Pickett also struggled in front of goal, finishing with three behinds and a couple of other misses.

It means Melbourne now bids farewell to veterans Jake Melksham and Tom McDonald, who recently announced their retirements.

For Carlton, it means an elimination final against Geelong next Friday night.  

Despite roughly even inside 50s to quarter-time (13-12), the Blues were going at 41.7 per cent efficiency in their forward 50. Each time, their build-up was a little too slow and shallow, allowing Melbourne to intercept with ease again and again.

A free kick from a push in the marking contest for Harry McKay gave Carlton its only goal for the quarter, despite attempts from the likes of Matthew Cottrell and Hollands.

Down the opposite end, minutes after being the reason for a reversal of a shot on goal for teammate Harrison Petty, Demon Harry Sharp redeemed himself with a dribbling goal to open the ledger. Harvey Langford also kicked one of the goals of the game on the run from the 50m arc across the body.

The Blues worked their way back into the match in the second quarter. Now, they were getting the ball in deep, moving the ball quicker for their forward entries. Pressure instead built on the Demons, who struggled to make it count on the scoreboard.

And it was working. Carlton scored four unanswered goals, including a huge conversion from Brodie Kemp to put the Blues ahead momentarily that had the MCG shaking, before McDonald put Melbourne back in front on the stroke of half-time.

A flurry of goals began the second half, with the teams trading them off the back of centre clearance wins, before things settled again and moved from end-to-end.

Carlton defender Nick Haynes went down with a right ankle injury in the first term, returning in the second before going down to the rooms again. He ultimately played out the second half. And Blues fans' hearts were in mouths watching the bench in the third term, with captain Patrick Cripps coming off limping slightly after a tackle on Jake Bowey with a left knee concern.

With 40 seconds to go in the term, Ben Ainsworth scored his third goal to put the Blues back in front for just the second time for the evening. Despite dominating clearances and forward 50 entries, Melbourne couldn’t make it count on the scoreboard.

The Blues threw Lewis Young forward for the final term. Smith goaled early after the side chipped the ball around. In a game where goals felt relatively hard to come by, it felt like a huge moment.

And the Blues did something they have struggled to do for so long – held onto a lead, when they needed it most. Despite a comedy of errors in the final 10 minutes, they took the full 30 seconds on multiple set shots, and fought for the ball to live largely in their forward half.

Questions raised again about injury breaks
Early in the first quarter, Melbourne’s Changkuoth Jiath landed awkwardly and stayed down. As play continued with Carlton moving the ball into its forward 50, the umpire stopped play to allow him to be treated by trainers. The delay before the Blues received the ball back allowed Melbourne’s defence to set up, with them ultimately unable to make it count. In the third term, play was momentarily stopped again while Ollie Hollands was attended to 100m away in the opposition goalsquare after staying down following a marking contest. Both ultimately played out the match, raising questions yet again about how best to handle different injuries in real time.

Viney on return
Jack Viney returned to Melbourne’s line-up for his first AFL game for the season, after battling Achilles and back complaints all year. Melbourne coach Steven King chose to use him in short bursts, ultimately only spending 49 per cent of the game on the ground. He built into the match with 13 disposals and two clearances. It was a risky decision given his lack of match fitness, limited to just one recent VFL game, but speaks to the trust King had in what the vice-captain’s experience and toughness brings.

History repeats
Saturday night's match marked Carlton's first finals win since their semi-final win on their dream run in 2023. On that similarly close night at the MCG, the Blues broke Demon hearts with a late Blake Acres goal to run out two-point winners. It leaves Melbourne waiting for its first finals win since the drought-breaking premiership in 2021. Given the coronavirus pandemic measures of the time forced them to base their side in Perth, it means the Demons haven't won a final at home at the 'G since 2018.

MELBOURNE       4.3     5.6     7.10    7.13 (55)
CARLTON                1.3     5.5     8.8      10.14 (74)
 
GOALS
Melbourne: Sharp, Langford, Laurie, Gawn, McDonald, Petty, Fritsch
Carlton: Ainsworth 3, McKay 2, Smith 2, Cripps, Hollands, Kemp

BEST
Melbourne: Gawn, Langford, Chandler, Sparrow
Carlton: Smith, Walsh, Hollands, Ainsworth, Evans, Cripps

INJURIES
Melbourne: Nil
Carlton: Haynes (ankle), Cripps (knee) 

Crowd: 91,733 at the MCG