GEELONG earned a week's break after finishing in fifth spot but might not have enjoyed watching Carlton continue to build momentum in what has become a stunning resurgence since coach Josh Fraser took the reins.

The Cats, on the other hand, have almost been flying under the radar as they won their last six matches by an average of 35 points to cruise into their 20th finals campaign in the past 23 seasons. Three defeats from as many matches against top-six sides, as well as a loss to the Blues, in the second half of the season leave question marks hanging over coach Chris Scott's team. But its wealth of experience and record of winning at least one final in all but three of its past 20 finals series make Geelong hard to tip against in a knockout game. 

>> Don’t miss a moment of thrilling finals action! Watch Geelong v Carlton LIVE in the elimination final from 7.40pm AEST on Seven, 7plus, Kayo Sports and Fox Footy   

The Blues incredibly turned around a 1-8 start to the season before parting ways with coach Michael Voss to put together an 11-1-2 record across their next 14 matches and march into the wildcard round. After a slow start against the Demons, the Blues rallied to boot nine goals to three after the first break to keep their fairytale run alive. They now face a six-day break but with three wins in the past three matches against Geelong, and four in their past five, Carlton can be confident its wild ride is not ready to end yet.

Geelong is sweating on the fitness of Max Holmes though the elimination final is expected to come too soon for the speedster as he recovers from an ankle injury. Mark Blicavs was managed for the round 24 clash with Richmond but is ready to return. Carlton forward Will Hayward is pushing for a recall after missing the wildcard final, while defender Nick Haynes will again need to prove his fitness after limping through the win against the Demons.  

Where and when: MCG, Friday September 4, 7.40pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 12: Carlton 12.16 (88) defeated Geelong 12.12 (84) at the MCG

Carlton's resurgence after winning two from two since Josh Fraser took the reins as interim coach was put to the test against an in-form Geelong. The Cats had climbed to third spot after four comprehensive wins on the trot against the Kangaroos, Magpies, Lions and Swans. The Blues' bubble looked set to burst as the Cats pushed out to a 20-point lead halfway through the second term. That was until the new-look Blues started moving the ball with speed, changing angles, and chipping away at the Cats' lead. Jack Henry's goal to put the Cats two points in front with two minutes remaining would have been enough to finish off the Blues earlier in the season. But when Patrick Cripps soared over a pack and kicked truly the Blues had snatched an unlikely victory and rubber stamped an even more surprising return to form. 

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Geelong

The Cats' recent record against the Blues with three consecutive defeats, and four losses in their past five clashes, is cause for concern. But the perennial finalists have the gameplan and experience to challenge the Blues' new possession-based style, with their own forward-half pressure a key to their success as the stakes rise. The Cats are ranked first for forward-half intercepts, inside-50 differential and points from the forward half as their well-honed structure and manic intensity dial up the pressure on opposition defences and lock the ball in their own half. 

Carlton

The Blues have been the second-stingiest side in the competition since Fraser took charge with an average of 75 points a game conceded in 15 matches. Carlton has started to limit opposition attacks through improving its own control of possession, though it is also defending against turnover better than all but the top teams. The Blues are ranked fourth for defensive 50 to inside 50 against, while their backline unit are also stepping up with the side ranked third for scores per inside 50 against during their revival period. 

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR ...

Geelong

Jeremy Cameron missed five straight wins after he went down with a shoulder injury in Geelong's round 18 defeat to GWS. But the 33-year-old returned in time for the Cats' round 24 tune-up against the Tigers and will be better for having a game in his legs where he gathered 22 disposals. The Cats had already been turning to other solutions in their forward half, with Shannon Neale (47 goals) and Oliver Henry (42) often leading the attack this year, while the two-time Coleman medallist played almost all of the game against the Giants in defence before being struck by injury. Cameron split his time between the forward line, and the remaining half of his game spent on the wing or in defence, on his return, but Scott could look to stretch the Blues' defence with a trio of forward targets.

Carlton

Sam Walsh is putting together a formidable finals record and was at his best again when it counts most with a devastating display as Carlton overran Melbourne in the wildcard round. The Blues' vice-captain has averaged 32.4 disposals across his five career finals but added a touch of class to every possession against the Demons as he amassed 39 disposals, seven clearances, seven score involvements and five inside 50s. Young gun Jagga Smith (29 disposals, two goals) rightly earned many of the plaudits after his superb finals debut. But Walsh – who won the Gary Ayres Medal as the best player in the 2023 finals series – has been as important as any Blues midfielder to the side's incredible turnaround.

PREDICTION

Geelong will be as wary of Carlton's reemergence as its own recent record in clashes between the teams, but has the experience to know the past counts for little come finals time. The Cats might have fine-tuned for the finals with six straight wins against sides now out of contention but the week's break, while the Blues have six days between matches, should leave them perfectly primed for a deep run. The Blues' fairytale run has been impossible to ignore and there should be no shame in it coming to an end in an elimination final against the Cats. Geelong by 14 points.

PATRICK Dangerfield's still got it.

Five goals in his 32nd final in front of 96,680 fans broke the hearts of the Carlton faithful across the country, keeping Geelong's chances alive in the process.

CATS V BLUES Full match details and stats

The Cats shook off an early challenge to finish 14.23 (107) to 11.8 (74) victors, playing their best footy in a wet second half at the MCG on Friday evening.

A 44-point turnaround either side of the half time break put a full stop on Carlton's remarkable season. Ultimately, the fresh legs, and immense finals experience of the Cats was simply too much for the Blues' momentum to compete with.

Early in the piece, Carlton's dominance around stoppage allowed it to get on top. By quarter-time it led the clearance count 11-4, growing to 24-14 by half time.  

There was a genuine ruthlessness about how Carlton approached every single contest. They worked to swarm the ball carrier and make their physicality known, and it unsettled the ball movement of the hardened Cats.

It asked some questions of Geelong's much vaunted onball group, but it was one of the side's quiet achievers that helped shift the momentum.

Shaun Mannagh's work through the midfield changed the game for the Cats. Where teammates were sloppy with the ball, or susceptible to pressure, it was Mannagh (25 disposals, six clearances, one goal) who expertly took the ball off the line to open up the ground for Geelong.

And for Carlton it was Jagga Smith's speed on attack through the middle of the ground that repeatedly caught the Cats out. Tagger Oisin Mullin was first sent to Sam Walsh – whose form last week was crucial to Carlton's wildcard win – but it didn't take long for the directive to shift to Smith (21 disposals, five score involvements) to come via the runner.

Off the back of Carlton's speed on rebound, it was regularly able to find players standing alone in the forward 50, despite Geelong's desire to generate a spare behind the ball.

But with rain teeming down and the Cats with the benefit of a week's rest, the Blues' heavy legs started to show in that transition game.

Ollie Wiltshire was a crucial conduit up forward in his first final, Max Holmes was clean and powerful on his return despite being on managed minutes, and the young key forward pair of Shannon Neale and Jay Pollkinghorne started to find space inside 50.

For much of the game, Jeremy Cameron covered the ground from the wing, trying hard to establish a mismatch and then drag his direct opponent deep inside 50. While it didn't necessarily result in scoring opportunities for Cameron, it created some worry for the Blues

Geelong's experience increasingly shone through as the game wore on. On the eve of half time the Cats were in control of the game, peppering the attacking 50, but just unable to do bulk damage, with just three goals from 11 scores across the quarter. And it was always going to be a problem for the Blues once the radar straightened up.

So, a second-half return of 10 goals to Carlton's six became more indicative of that control, mounting the impressive turnaround.

Holmes' return to the top
Geelong coach Chris Scott made the bold call to bring star midfielder Max Holmes back for his first game since round 19 after suffering an ankle injury. The plan was always to manage his minutes – short, powerful bursts for pinch-hitting impact – and it was working to great effect, especially through the side's third-quarter comeback. But as with most players returning to the top level after a layoff, Holmes required plenty of attention from the Geelong trainers at the final break due to some heavy cramping. Thankfully for Cats fans, that's all it was, given Holmes' rough run in September in recent years.

Start the clock
Midway through the second term, defensive revelation Harry Dean copped from friendly fire to the face, causing him to be helped off the ground for some attention. Initially the concern was his nose – which was on the receiving end of an accidental Marc Pittonet boot – but then he was forced to the rooms to undergo a Head Injury Assessment (HIA). He passed the assessment and was deemed fine to return to the ground, but the mandatory 15-minute break hadn't been started by the AFL steward until Dean was taken into the rooms. Although the Blues' countdown clock meant he was ready to come back on late in the quarter, the AFL kept him on the bench for the remainder of the quarter to complete the required 15 minutes.

Captain Cripps
The Blues started well. But as Geelong started to find its feet late in the first quarter, thanks to a goal from captain Patrick Dangerfield, Carlton's leader Patrick Cripps went one better. Starting in the hands of Sam Walsh on the forward flank, he hit up Rising Star Jagga Smith. A kick into the 50 skimmed some Geelong fingertips, ultimately landing in Cripps' hands deep in the pocket. A recent master of the checkside around the body, Cripps calmly looked goalward and curved it through to the roar of the crowd.

GEELONG         1.5    4.10    10.13    14.23 (107)
CARLTON          4.3    5.7     7.8        11.8 (74)

GOALS 
Geelong: Dangerfield 5, Miers 2, Neale 2, Close, Holmes, Mannagh, O.Henry, Polkinghorne
Carlton: Evans 2, Kemp 2, Lord 2, Cottrell, Cripps, Hollands, McKay, Ainsworth

BEST 
Geelong: Mannagh, Dangerfield, Smith, Wiltshire, Stewart, J.Henry
Carlton: Smith, Walsh, Cripps, Wilson, Pittonet, Cowan

INJURIES 
Geelong: Nil
Carlton: Dean (face)

Crowd: 96,680 at the MCG