PRIDE Round kicks off in style this weekend, as we enter the final month of the 2025 NAB AFLW home and away season.
Premiership players Breanna Keonen and Libby Birch will notch up their 100th career games on Saturday, and the Roos will be looking to make it 21 wins on the trot across round nine.
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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10
Western Bulldogs v Essendon at Whitten Oval, 7.15pm AEDT
Last time they met: Essendon 3.8 (26) def. Western Bulldogs 0.3 (3), week seven 2024
After starting the season with a bang posting three consecutive wins, Essendon has since lost its last five, but in the past fortnight it has seriously challenged both North Melbourne and Melbourne. Notably, the Bombers entered those two games with clear – albeit differing – focal points. It signals their ability to adjust game style based on their opposition's strength, and although a negating strategy is not always going to be a positive one, it may work a treat against the Bulldogs. Forcing the Dogs narrow and sucking them into long kicks down the line can really stunt their attempts to attack.
Fan favourite Mua Laloifi will be making her club debut for the Bulldogs in this one, more than 700 days since she last played – in the navy blue – which, alongside the Pride celebrations, will give the Dogs an energetic boost. Sarah Hartwig has emerged as their most dangerous forward target in recent weeks, getting her marking back on track and offering some structure ahead of the ball. Now there is a need to capitalise on that newfound confidence, with not only her own scoring, but the work of those around her. Essendon concedes an average of 37.9 inside 50s per game, which will offer the Dogs plenty of opportunity to post a big score.
Tip: It will go down to the wire. Essendon by two points.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 11
Adelaide v West Coast at Norwood Oval, 12.35pm ACDT
Last time they met: Adelaide 11.5 (71) def. West Coast 6.9 (45), round 10 2023
Adelaide is coming off a shock loss to Richmond, in which it was beaten on the deck and succumbed to the Tigers' pressure. So, there is an expectation that the Crows will bounce back on their home deck – particularly given they have not lost consecutive games since 2020. Still without Caitlin Gould up forward, there is a real need for Anne Hatchard and Danielle Ponter to get more dangerous as they rotate through the midfield and forward line, essentially switching places between the lines as games evolve.
All eyes will be on West Coast's attacking line in this one. As the club leading the League for contested marks this year, it is that aerial game that has allowed it to become a challenging, high scoring team. The question is whether this contested marking style can hold up against Adelaide's key backs of Zoe Prowse, Chelsea Biddell, and Sarah Allan. The Crows likely have the upper hand in the middle, but it is on the outside where the Eagles can force the turnover and create a territory game – essentially using the Crows' own brand against them – but that requires an aerial game win. Both teams have pulled off some remarkable late comebacks this year, so it will ultimately come down to whoever can own the final quarter.
Tip: The Eagles will push the Crows, but will ultimately fall short. Adelaide by five points.
Geelong v Greater Western Sydney at GMHBA Stadium, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Greater Western Sydney 8.5 (53) def. Geelong 5.5 (35), round 10 2022 S7
Although an unlikely finalist, Geelong is still mathematically a chance to reach the post-season, but it simply must get a big win this week to kickstart its final month of footy. Both sides are coming off a pair of losses, and will be determined to get back on track, but it arguably means that little bit more for the Cats who still have a little bit of hope of reaching the top eight. There will be a real style clash between these two teams, with the Cats a kicking team, and the Giants more of a handballing side, but Geelong has a chance to really get a hold of things from stoppage.
Once inside 50, the Cats are generating more shots on goal, but accuracy has been an issue all year. This looms large as GWS tends to give its opponents plenty of chances to score once close to goal. Aishling Moloney and Jackie Parry have the potential to really break this game open and cause some problems for the Giants' defence. It is Cambridge McCormick who looks like she can create some headaches back the other way. For the Cats, forcing McCormick to be accountable, and refusing to let her get her rebounding game going will be really important on the way toward a win.
Tip: It's now or never for the Cats. Geelong by 18 points.
Hawthorn v Gold Coast at Kinetic Stadium, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Hawthorn 4.11 (35) def. Gold Coast 3.4 (22), week six 2024
Strangely enough, there are some similarities between Hawthorn and Gold Coast heading into this game. Both will be without one of their first-choice midfielders – Emily Bates for the Hawks, Claudia Whitfort for the Suns – and both tend to fade late in games. The big difference being, however, that the Hawks have won seven games, and the Suns just one. Aine McDonagh has been a matchwinner for Hawthorn this year, and a key part of Gold Coast's planning heading into this one will no doubt be around limiting McDonagh's access to the footy. Clara Fitzpatrick seems the likeliest option to take on her fellow countrywoman, but it will be a full backline effort to shut McDonagh out.
The Suns have shown an insistence to play their brand this year, not content with just locking things down, they are throwing everything they can at a new attacking game style, but it has come at the expense of leaking big scores. They have been particularly vulnerable once the ball is in their defensive 50, and this is compounded by the fact that they're allowing opposition teams a record 43.1 inside 50s per game. The Hawks are the exact opposition, allowing opposition teams to goal from just 9.8 per cent of their forward entries, which means it will be a tough day at the office for Gold Coast's attacking line.
Tip: The Hawks will all but lock in that top four finish. Hawthorn by 30 points.
Brisbane v Port Adelaide at Brighton Homes Arena, 4.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Brisbane 11.10 (76) def. Port Adelaide 4.2 (26), round two 2023
Brisbane captain Breanna Koenen will bring up career game No.100, becoming the third Lion to do so – behind Ally Anderson and coach Craig Starcevich. Notably, it's against former teammate Lauren Arnell, who will be leading Port Adelaide from the coaches box. Another former Lion, Indy Tahau will also be front of mind for Brisbane, with the swing player having a big season for the Power, leading the club's goalkicking and creating some headaches for opposition defenders. Will Jennifer Dunne be the player to take on Tahau and attempt to limit her output?
Port Adelaide is a real surge team, and the main question is whether that surge style will work against Brisbane. The Power must engage the likes of Jade Ellenger, Nat Grider, and Koenen, not allowing them to play their intercepting game, but it will also require some more considered forward movement. Long dump kicks from contests will be lapped up by the experienced Lions defenders. Brisbane, meanwhile, is less of a surge team and more the run and carry specialist of the AFLW. High pressure around contest, and preventing that exit to space will be key for the Power in shutting down that movement.
Tip: The Lions' momentum will continue. Brisbane by 12 points.
Richmond v North Melbourne at Ikon Park, 7.15pm AEDT
Last time they met: North Melbourne 3.9 (27) def. Richmond 2.3 (15), week five 2024
Another 100 gamer, three-time premiership defender Libby Birch will notch up the milestone against Richmond on Saturday evening. The Tigers, meanwhile, are full of confidence following their breakthrough win over Adelaide last week, and generally feel that they match up well against the Roos. Last week's win came via work rate, ground level pressure, and importantly, a reliable forward target in Ellie McKenzie. But that is far harder to replicate against a team like the Kangaroos. North Melbourne is averaging all-time AFLW records for average scores, disposals, marks, inside 50s, marks inside 50, disposal efficiency, goal accuracy, and meters gained (amongst others). Put simply, it is dominating every aspect of the game.
Richmond must be accountable to Jasmine Garner and Emma Kearney. While others are important to the Roos, and key to how they move the ball, Garner and Kearney are the fire starters, and generally do the most damage with their transition running and ball use. Unfortunately, there is a real danger of the Tigers getting trapped in defence and unable to exit their back half due to a combination of their foot skills coming out of the line, and North Melbourne's regimented defensive press. Composure in the face of that will be crucial.
Tip: It will be 21 wins in a row for the Roos. North Melbourne by 40 points.
SUNDAY OCTOBER 12
Sydney v Carlton at Henson Park, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Carlton 6.8 (44) def. Sydney 6.3 (39), round five 2023
Amidst the Pride celebrations at Henson Park this weekend, this match looms as a real finals-shaper. The Swans simply must win to stay in touch with the top eight, while the Blues would like to notch a win to keep their top four chances realistic. Is this game simply a case of free-flowing attack, willing to sacrifice some defence in the process, and each side hoping it can post a greater score? Both teams have played aa aggressive, fast transition game this year, and have the ability to pile on the scores. The difference, really, in their standings heading into round nine has been defensive strength.
Carlton has maintained more reliable full-ground defence this season, keeping its structure in place and lengthening the ground, which means it can capitalise on quick movement from the opposition and catch teams out whose forwards get sucked up to the play. This is where the Swans have struggled in 2024, allowing high-transition midfielders to find too much space and time, and leaving their defenders in tough one-on-one situations. Even without key forward Tara Bohanna in the side, who will miss with a foot injury, the Blues look like an ominous challenge for the Swans, who are on their heels.
Tip: The Swans' finals hopes are in trouble. Carlton by eight points.
St Kilda v Collingwood at RSEA Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: St Kilda 7.5 (47) def. Collingwood 5.5 (35), round four 2023
The Saints are riding on belief, and it's helped them to four straight wins. Having never made finals in their history, this sort of momentum could very well be history-making for the club. Injuries are starting to be a problem for the side, however, with important runners Molly McDonald and Ash Richards out for the season, and now joined by Bianca Jakobsson and Nicola Barr, the list is starting to be stretched thin. St Kilda is the highest tackling team in AFLW history, averaging 83.6 per game, and it is this sort of pressure that could unsettle a developing Collingwood that is still trying to establish confidence in its ball movement.
Collingwood has been susceptible to front half pressure, which means the work of Nicola Xenos, Charlotte Baskaran, and Jaimee Lambert will be important, while key target Jesse Wardlaw will be a challenge for the Pies, who have struggled to contain tall forwards this year. At the other end of the ground, the Saints' defence has become a real challenge to break through, which will be problematic for a Collingwood attack that is still struggling to post consistent scores.
Tip: The Saints will bolster their hopes of a maiden finals berth. St Kilda by 20 points.
Fremantle v Melbourne at Fremantle Oval, 2.05pm AWST
Last time they met: Fremantle 7.5 (47) def. Melbourne 6.5 (41), week four 2024
With Aisling McCarthy's matchwinner against Melbourne last year, Fremantle broke a run of five-straight Demons' wins in their head-to-head tally. Now, for the 10th meeting of these inaugural sides, there is very much a sense that Melbourne is back in the driver's seat. Melbourne's heavy scoring and end-to-end transition will be a problem for the Dockers, who have been caught out in this respect throughout the season – notably causing their back-to-back heavy losses in rounds two and three. Both are strong contested ball teams, but the Demons are especially good at then spinning that out to uncontested ball, from which they maintain control of the game.
It's worth noting that Melbourne is actually averaging more shots on goal than even North Melbourne, which has been aided by some serious forward pressure, as it averages a record 18.6 tackles inside 50. The two sides are at opposite ends of the defensive scale, with Fremantle conceding a record high 55.6 per cent goal accuracy – which means it generally allows opposition sides high percentage shots at goal. Melbourne, however, is conceding a record low 24.7 per cent goal accuracy, which has helped it concede a goal from just 9.3 per cent of opposition entries.
Tip: It's time to lock down that No.2 spot on the ladder. Melbourne by 32 points.
