A FIGHT for second seed, the fourth AFLW Showdown, and a make-or-break battle between the Swans and Eagles. Round 11 is packed.
With only a fortnight left to play in the home and away season, there is still so much up for grabs. Only three teams – North Melbourne, Melbourne, and Hawthorn – are locked into finals, although the latter two are still desperate to sew up a place in the top four. Another glut of teams need to stamp their authority to extend their seasons into November.
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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24
Adelaide v Port Adelaide at Norwood Oval, 7.05pm ACDT
Last time they met: Adelaide 7.7 (49) def. Port Adelaide 5.5 (35), week one 2024
In each of the previous three AFLW Showdowns, Port Adelaide has gotten progressively closer to Adelaide. The first margin was 60 points, then 30, and last year just 14. Now, the Power are coming off their second-highest score, and when they get momentum the side can do some real damage in front of goal. The Crows, meanwhile, are coming off a goalless first half, and a team-high score against in their loss to North Melbourne. The question is, how much can we take out of last week's performances?
The most significant difference between the sides statistically is the average disposal count – handballs in particular – and disposal efficiency. For the Power, this is by virtue of their game style, and positively they are more reliable at turning forward entries into goal. Averaging fewer forward 50 entries, the Power are actually recording an average of 49.8 points per game compared to Adelaide's 44.1. What that attacking style has created, however, is a more vulnerable defence – and it is here that the Crows may be able to do some damage.
Tip: This is the Power's chance to prove what they're made of. Port Adelaide by 13 points.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 25
Sydney v West Coast at Henson Park, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Sydney 10.14 (74) def. West Coast 4.4 (28), week 10 2024
This one is essentially a final come early for both Sydney and West Coast. The winner will be in the box seat for a finals place, the loser is all but done for the year. At their best, both teams are exciting, attacking, and fast-paced, but unfortunately for Sydney, its vulnerabilities sit a little closer to the skin. The transition game that so many successful teams have been able to execute this year has really caught the Swans out, with lane changes and speed on the ball cutting them open with ease. Because of this, it is absolutely crucial that the Swans bring a full-ground defensive effort, otherwise things could get ugly quickly.
There is a real threat that the Eagles could run away with this one in the second half. West Coast generally hits its straps after the main break, and has averaged 12.4 points across its last five final quarters alone. Daisy's side has been more reliable around the contested ball, and this has been true both on the ground and in the air. Against an undersized Sydney defence, the presence of Charlotte Riggs, Lucia Painter, Lauren Wakfer, and Ella Roberts ahead of the ball will cause some headaches.
Tip: The Eagles will plant a foot in finals. West Coast by 10 points.
Essendon v Hawthorn at Windy Hill, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Essendon 7.7 (49) def. Hawthorn 4.6 (30), round one 2023
Although Essendon has won by an average of 23.5 points in the two meetings between these sides, it is Hawthorn which is better placed heading into the third iteration. There seems to be a lost spark across the Bombers' senior players, with important playmakers like Bonnie Toogood and Maddy Prespakis down on their usual impact, which has put a lot of pressure on the shoulders of young players like Amy Gaylor and Holly Ridewood. Gaylor, in particular, has been a standout, with her capacity to remain strong in big moments. But unfortunately, she is just one person.
Both teams have had a hard time scoring this year, and the Hawks certainly feel a little Aine McDonagh/Aileen Gilroy or bust ahead of the ball – with last week's loss to Port Adelaide shining a light on exactly that issue. And the loss of Lucy Wales for what is expected to be the remainder of the season only exacerbates the issue, as forwards Mackenzie Eardley and Elli Symonds must now carry more of the ruck load. But defensively, they have generally held up well – save for last week's 94-point concession. As long as Hawthorn can make it hard enough for Essendon to score, it should grind out another win.
Tip: The Hawks will win again, but how convincing will they be? Hawthorn by 20 points.
Fremantle v Richmond at Fremantle Oval, 2.05pm AWST
Last time they met: Fremantle 5.7 (37) def. Richmond 4.6 (30), round five 2023
After a more than shaky start to the season, Fremantle has strung together a couple of really gritty wins, adding a shine to what could have been a really poor year, and proving the pure workrate of the playing group. As a super contested team, that relies heavily on contested possession and tackles, the Dockers are content to turn things into a physical slog, and this isn't necessarily something Richmond has proven it can withstand for long periods of time. The Tigers love to force error from the opposition via ground-level pressure, but the Dockers thrive in those conditions.
Richmond has gotten itself into trouble this year with its attempts to move the ball from defence, with poor ball use and disorganisation creating opportunities for opposition teams to score. Fremantle will work hard to exploit this, playing a territory game and giving the forward line repeat looks on goal. At the other end of the ground, Katie Brennan has finally hit a neat patch of form for the Tigers, but she will need good supply to continue her goalkicking ways.
Tip: The Dockers will make it three in a row. Fremantle by 17 points.
Brisbane v Melbourne at Brighton Homes Arena, 6.15pm AEST
Last time they met: Brisbane 5.3 (33) def. Melbourne 2.3 (15), week two 2024
In the fight for who can lay claim as the second-best team in the League this year, Melbourne might have won six of the past 10 match-ups between these two, but Brisbane has claimed victory in the last two meetings. The Lions will also head into this one without key playmaker Breanna Koenen, who is managing a hamstring injury with the hopes of returning come finals.
There is a sense that this could become a tale of two halves – the Demons are dangerous in first halves, while the Lions do their damage after the main break. Melbourne can be quite a ruthless contested ball team, but it is particularly good at preventing that contested style from dragging games into a scrap. Instead, it turns that contested strength into sleek outside movement thanks to a quick handball game. Matching them around the contest will be important for Brisbane, with the likes of Belle Dawes, Cathy Svarc, and Ally Anderson set to lead this part of the game.
Tip: Brighton Homes Arena will continue to be a happy hunting ground for the Demons. Melbourne by seven points.
SUNDAY OCTOBER 26
Western Bulldogs v Geelong at Mars Stadium, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Geelong 10.5 (65) def. Western Bulldogs 2.5 (17), round one 2023
The Dogs are chock-full of confidence, playing free flowing, attacking footy that brings the best out of the playing group. It has led to three wins from their last four outings, winning by an average of 10 goals in that time, proving that when they get their attacking game going, they can pile on the scores quickly. Part of that is broad attacking spread they have established – after a start to the year that had people asking who was going to become an avenue to goal – with young gun Emma McDonald, Sarah Hartwig, Heidi Woodley, and Ellie Blackburn all dangerous once in attack.
Both the Dogs and the Cats have won four games this year, but the latter have been far less convincing in their wins. Geelong has been vulnerable to opposition midfielders who get dangerous ahead of the ball, losing direct opponents in the transition phase post-clearance and putting a lot of pressure on its defenders. Compounding this, Dogs ruck Alice Edmonds is in some fine form, and against the inexperienced Geelong ruck division, she could really take hold of this game with both hands.
Tip: The Dogs' momentum will get them through. Western Bulldogs by 20 points.
North Melbourne v St Kilda at North Hobart Oval, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: North Melbourne 8.8 (56) def. St Kilda 2.4 (16), round one 2023
St Kilda is on a high, with six consecutive wins under its belt, and a whole lot of confidence that it can defend grimly when the game is one the line. The concerning part all season, however, has been just how many inside 50s they have given up each week. Allowing 37.4 inside 50s per game does leave the Saints vulnerable to aggressive attacking teams. Unfortunately for them, North Melbourne's attack is off the charts.
The Roos' scoring power is unlike anything we've ever seen in the AFLW, averaging 73.4 points from 46.5 inside 50s, and goaling at an accuracy of 53.2 per cent. This is just not something the Saints are likely to be able to defend for long enough to sneak a seventh-straight victory. The defence has to come from higher up the ground, slow the ball use through the middle of the ground. St Kilda averages 78.7 tackles per game, but that needs to be effective in preventing the next layer of Roos from impacting, and notably, despite averaging record disposal numbers, the Roos concede a League-low of 59.3 tackles per game.
Tip: The Roos will make it 23. North Melbourne by 40 points.
Carlton v Greater Western Sydney at Ikon Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Greater Western Sydney 8.1 (49) def. Carlton 7.5 (47), round eight 2023
It feels as though Carlton has hit the skids, with back-to-back losses taking it out of top four contention, and now just hanging on to a spot within the top eight. The losses, in the absence of Tara Bohanna and Mimi Hill, have highlighted the fragility of the Blues' game, and just how much they rely on the pair to keep things on their terms. Last week they lived inside 50, but simply couldn't turn that into score, and despite the choice to swing Poppy Scholz forward, and use ruck Breann Harrington as the main marking target, neither offers the structural reliability that Bohanna has this year.
At their best, both sides move the ball aggressively, running in waves, and able to go end-to-end in a flash, but the issue has been consistency. The Giants' defence has generally been more vulnerable this year, giving up 51.9 points per game, but the Blues typically allow the opposition more forward entries. This, however, could offer a launch pad for Carlton, given GWS isn't brilliant at maintaining territory control, and the rebounding work of players like Harriet Cordner and Dayna Finn has been deadly this year.
Tip: The Blues will get back on track. Carlton by eight points.
Gold Coast v Collingwood at Bond University, 3.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Collingwood 4.3 (27) def. Gold Coast 3.6 (24), week five 2024
In this battle of the bottom of the ladder, there is a curiosity around these two sides. Both have had moments of excitement, and clear vision this year, but also had some really poor outings. For the Pies, skill and decision-making have been really letting them down, with the right idea on how they want to move the ball, but lacking the players who can reliably execute it. The Suns, meanwhile, are working hard to implement and exciting, attacking style of footy, but in the process are leaking big scores back the other way, and need to be quicker to defend up the ground.
Even though the Suns have been goalless twice this year – including last week – they actually tend to be more reliable once inside 50 in comparison to Collinwood. The Pies have been messy, and susceptible to overusing the ball in attack, with few players willing to take responsibility for the shot on goal with ball in hand. The move of Ruby Schleicher into attack for periods across the last fortnight has offered something, but robbed the midfield, and the absence of Ash Centra and Carly Remmos has exacerbated the issue. But if the Pies can't put on a score against the Suns, that will be a serious indictment of their attacking game.
Tip: The Suns might let the Pies score, but they'll put on more themselves. Gold Coast by five points.
