IT IS the second week of Pride Round and while things are celebratory off the field, it's getting hotter in the trenches, with finals less than a month away.
Hawthorn will get its first crack at Port Adelaide since the latter knocked it out of last year's finals series, Tahlia Randall will become the fifth player to reach the 100 game milestone, and the race to 100 goals continues between Jasmine Garner and Kate Hore.
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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17
Port Adelaide v Hawthorn at Alberton Oval, 6.45pm ACDT
Last time they met: Port Adelaide 7.8 (50) def. Hawthorn 6.13 (49), semi-final 2024
Port Adelaide stunningly put a stop to Hawthorn's finals run last year with a 30-point fourth quarter, overcoming a 23-point deficit at the final break. Now, it's the Hawks' chance to make amends for that disappointing result. Notably, both teams have been susceptible to final-quarter fade outs this year, making that early battle all the more important. Part of this starts in the air, with the Matilda Scholz v Lucy Wales contest an intriguing one given both players' capacity to get physical in the ruck and get forward to hit the scoreboard when needed.
Hawthorn is coming off its highest score of the year, but Port Adelaide has generally been the more reliable attacking team this year, averaging 44.9 points compared to the Hawks' 35.3. This is where the Aine McDonagh matchup could be make or break. McDonagh has been the Hawks' matchwinner on multiple occasions this year and is really the key to unlocking the side's attack. Given Teagan Germech's height and athleticism, she may be handed the task, but it will certainly be a team effort. Meanwhile at the other end of the ground, the Power needs to occupy interceptor Jenna Richardson to prevent her from taking control in the air and instigating the rebound game.
Tip: The Hawks will get atonement. Hawthorn by 15 points.
West Coast v Geelong at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, 6.15pm AWST
Last time they met: Geelong 9.2 (56) def. West Coast 3.5 (23), week nine 2024
For West Coast, last week's loss combined with Sydney's surprise win over Carlton has put a serious dent in its finals chances. It makes this game so much more important, as a win will help keep the side in touch with the top eight. The Eagles are notably slow starters this season, while the Cats are known to fade out – although last week's five-goal fourth quarter may kickstart a new trend for Geelong. What West Coast's final-quarter run will do, however, is maintain belief even from a tricky position, which will no doubt be playing on Geelong's mind.
West Coast has generally been tighter than Geelong defensively this year, with young trio Georgie Cleaver, Charlie Thomas, and Zoe Wakfer standouts in the line. They certainly have the height and athleticism to go with Cats spearhead Aishling Moloney, while also the strength to combat Jackie Parry. For this reason, it is on the deck that the Cats must get dangerous. Mikayla Bowen is having a strong season, Kate Kenny's dash from the wing can do some real damage, and Kate Surman's aggression can create a front-half game.
Tip: The Eagles will keep that finals dream alive. West Coast by eight points.
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 18
Melbourne v Sydney at Casey Fields, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: This is the first time Melbourne and Sydney will meet in the AFLW.
These two sides come into their first ever AFLW clash from very different perspectives. Melbourne is coming off a shock loss to Fremantle out west, but still well-placed to finish in the top four, while Sydney snapped a four-game losing streak with a surprise win over Carlton. For the Swans, Montana Ham and Ally Morphett were key pieces in last week's win, and without co-captain Chloe Molloy, who will miss with a back concern, they become even more important.
The Demons have lost the contested possession count just twice this season – the last two weeks – and this is a way that opposition sides can impede the start of Melbourne’s ball movement. A decision from the Dockers last week to sit defensive midfielder Kiara Bowers on Tyla Hanks worked a treat, and Sydney could take a leaf out of that book and assign Tanya Kennedy a run-with role (not a strict tag). Stoppage is going to be all-important in this one, it was where the Swans got control last week, and it is where the Demons typically dominate.
Tip: The Demons will become the third team locked into finals. Melbourne by 14 points.
North Melbourne v Adelaide at Arden Street, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: North Melbourne 5.8 (38) def. Adelaide 5.1 (31), qualifying final 2024
Adelaide got going again last week with its key defensive trio of Zoe Prowse, Chelsea Biddell, and Sarah Allan getting the game on their terms and stymying the Eagles' attempts to find marks in attack. This will make for a fascinating battle with North Melbourne's tall forwards Tahlia Randall, Kate Shierlaw, and Emma King, who are the tent poles of the most potent attack in AFLW history. It is on the ground where the Roos have the potential to do some real damage, however, with the likes of Blaithin Bogue, Bella Eddey, and Jasmine Garner getting dangerous in front of goal. Randall will also become the fifth player in the League's history to bring up 100 career games in this one.
In terms of scoring, Jasmine Garner has kicked 12 goals against Adelaide across her career – the most of any player to face the Crows – but Danielle Ponter has snagged 13 against North – the equal-most of any one player against a club. And the big question: will this be the week that an opposition side decides to put the clamps on Emma Kearney? The former North Melbourne captain has largely had free reign across the half-back line, setting up the side's ball movement and organising the defence.
Tip: The Crows have a real shot at challenging the streak, but the Roos will make it 22 on the trot. North Melbourne by 10 points.
Greater Western Sydney v Fremantle at Henson Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Fremantle 7.13 (55) def. Greater Western Sydney 4.1 (25), week nine 2024
This year Fremantle games have generally descended into contested fights, and if the Giants can survive that aspect of the game, they have the potential to get busy outside the contest. This is going to be the definition of an outside v inside game. GWS is at its best when streaming down the ground, using its runners and handball game, and getting the ball into the hands of Tarni Evans inside 50. Fremantle is more focused on contest and kicking to gain territory. Unfortunately, that will be without Aine Tighe once again, as well as dynamic duo Gabby O'Sullivan, and Orlagh Lally.
The Dockers do tend to allow opposition sides high percentage opportunities at goal, and it is here that players like Evans, Georgia Garnett, Kaitlyn Srhoj, and Eilish O'Dowd can capitalise. It is really here where the game will be won or lost. At the other end of the ground, limiting the influence of Cambridge McCormick will be an important piece for Fremantle's attacking line.
Tip: It will be tough, but the Giants will break through. GWS by seven points.
Carlton v St Kilda at Ikon Park, 7.15pm AEDT
Last time they met: St Kilda 7.4 (46) def. Carlton 3.8 (26), round 10 2023
This one is a significant finals-shaper, especially given the Blues' round nine loss, while the Saints are full of confidence on a club-high five-game winning streak. They are now separated on the ladder by just two per cent, and Carlton is desperate to return to finals, while St Kilda wants to taste post-season action for the first time. The Blues will have to do so without important duo Mimi Hill and Tara Bohanna, and the Saints without Jaimee Lambert.
Although the Saints have been snatching wins, they have done so with limited inside 50s, and while conceding plenty of territory to opposition sides. This means they have had to defend deep and live dangerously for long periods, which will create chances for the Blues. The big question, though, is if Carlton can capitalise on the opportunities it is afforded. With the speed that the Blues possess – Dayna Finn, Erone Fitzpatrick, Sophie McKay – there is potential they could open up the Saints and put some real pressure on their defensive one-on-ones.
Tip: The Blues will get some separation. Carlton by five points.
SUNDAY OCTOBER 19
Essendon v Brisbane at Windy Hill, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Brisbane 8.14 (62) def. Essendon 3.0 (18), round six 2022 (S7)
Even in the face of some real personnel issues this year, the Bombers have risen to the challenge when facing the best teams, but things fell apart last week. They will be determined to bounce back at home, but must do so without Maddi Gay – who has been sidelined with an ACL strain once again – and clever winger Maggie MacLachlan. Brisbane, meanwhile, has found its confidence, with four consecutive wins under the belt with an average of 61.5 points kicked across the last month.
Essendon has really struggled to get its hands on the footy, and that has led to it losing the inside 50 count on a regular basis. When it has moved the ball into attack, scores have still been hard to come by. This presents as a real pain point given the form of Brisbane defenders Natalie Grider and Jade Ellenger, who work well to not only intercept, but launch scores from the back half. Sophie Alexander is likely to be occupied by key back Jen Dunne, so ensuring others make Grider and Ellenger accountable defensively will be important.
Tip: The Lions will make it five straight. Brisbane by 27 points.
Collingwood v Richmond at Victoria Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Richmond 7.4 (46) def. Collingwood 1.4 (10), week six 2024
Both Collingwood and Richmond have had pretty lean seasons with moments of joy, largely working to discover how to get the most out of their lists at hand, but this presents as an opportunity to snag another moment of joy. Statistically, the Pies have been stronger this year, but drastically break down once close to goal. They are turning inside 50s into goals just 9.6 per cent of the time, lacking that really damaging target. Kalinda Howarth has been dynamic at times, but finding the goals consistently hasn't been a feature of her season, while the likes of Sabrina Frederick and the smalls around her have struggled to fire a shot.
Richmond's efficiency inside 50 isn't much better, but the impact of players like Ellie McKenzie and Monique Conti sliding forward has been welcomed. Both teams work to move the ball by foot, but in varying ways. The Pies are trying to do so with more control, finding marks and uncontested ball around the ground, while the Tigers tend to go a bit more hell for leather. The latter works hand-in-hand with Richmond's increasing pressure game, something it lacked early in the season.
Tip: The Tigers will shag a second win. Richmond by 12 points.
Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs at Great Barrier Reef Arena, 4.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Gold Coast 7.6 (48) def. Western Bulldogs 7.2 (44), round four 2023
The Bulldogs have hit a little sweet spot when it comes to their confidence, winning each of its last two home games by 57 points, but now the challenge is to take that form on the road. They believe they can play dangerous, attacking football, and Sarah Hartwig, Heidi Woodley, and Emma McDonald are forming a pretty handy combination ahead of the play. With the speed and rebound that players like Kaylee Kimber, Rylie Wilcox, and Brit Gutknecht can get on the ball from the back half, the Suns do look vulnerable in this one.
Gold Coast has been highly susceptible to opposition teams moving the ball end-to-end, leaving the backline all at sea and forced to compete in challenging one-on-one situations. The club has given up big scores as a result of this – allowing a record 42.3 inside 50s and 70.7 points against per game – but it has been in an attempt to play an attacking brand of its own. Releasing Havana Harris, allowing Darcie Davies to be the contested marking player deep alongside Jac Dupuy, and defending grimly in layers will all be required if the Suns are to challenge in this one.
Tip: It will be win number four for the Bulldogs. Western Bulldogs by 18 points.
