THE RACE for finals comes down to the last round of the NAB AFLW season, with seven teams trying to cram into four places.
A trio of iconic players will also bring up their 100th career games, and the final yet-to-be-seen matchup will be ticked off. It's a big final round of footy.
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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31
Hawthorn v North Melbourne at Kinetic Stadium, 7.15pm AEDT
Last time they met: Hawthorn and North Melbourne have never played one-another in the AFLW
It is the match-up everyone was desperate for last year, given the slick, attacking style of both teams. We now get a Hawks v Roos fixture – the last matchup to 'complete the set' across the AFLW's history – but the circumstances are quite different. North Melbourne is tracking for a record-breaking 24th consecutive win, while Hawthorn is limping through the season, registering wins but in an unconvincing manner. Notably, there is a genuine possibility that they will meet for a second time next week in a qualifying final, should the Hawks finish in fourth place. North Melbourne captain Jasmine Garner will also notch up career game No.100 in this one, and is just three goals away from becoming the first player to kick 100 across their career.
Irish pair Aine McDonagh and Aileen Gilroy could be the key to unlocking North Melbourne's defensive structures. With Gilroy's huge boot, and McDonagh's speed and agility breaking past the Roos' defensive wall into space for McDonagh to own, could create some opportunities for the Hawks to score. This does rely on work from teammates up the field to release Gilroy with ball in hand, and smart positioning from others to prevent any crowding in that attacking space.
Tip: The Roos are unassailable. North Melbourne by 30 points.
West Coast v Carlton at Sullivan Logistics Stadium, 6.15pm AWST
Last time they met: Carlton 12.5 (77) def. West Coast 3.6 (24), round three 2023
This is the first of a handful of games that will decide who sneaks into finals, and who misses. For the Eagles, they need to snag a win to secure their first ever finals qualification, so, they have everything to play for. Last week they struggled to establish their entertaining style of footy, trapped in defence and unable to find reliable exits. This cannot happen again against the potent Carlton attack that includes Tara Bohanna, and first-year duo Poppy Scholz and Sophie McKay. Giving them too many opportunities is a recipe for danger.
Carlton's quick ball movement can really open up defences, so the solid backline of Georgie Cleaver, Charlie Thomas, and Zoe Wakfer needs to be at its best. And stylistically, the Blues tend to possess the ball more, working it to the open side and getting it in the hands of runners like Dayna Finn and Erone Fitzpatrick, while the Eagles want to own the air. The absence of Jess Rentsch will be a blow for West Coast, with a role on Finn having been likely given her impressive season nullifying dangerous opposition players.
Tip: The Eagles have more to lose. West Coast by seven points.
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 1
Greater Western Sydney v Port Adelaide at Henson Park, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Port Adelaide 7.1 (43) def. Greater Western Sydney 6.6 (42), week 10 2024
The Power nabbed a late win over the Giants in the final round last year to secure a place in finals, and it was a Gemma Houghton contested mark and set shot that confirmed the result. This time, the Giants are determined to record a win to finish their season. That is easier said than done, however, given the style of footy Port Adelaide plays and the limitations of the Giants' game. Winning stoppage and surging from there has been the Power's bread and butter, and they are further aided by Matilda Scholz's strength in the ruck.
But it’s not just pure surge footy from Port anymore. There is more control and nuance in its ball movement, as exemplified by the metric that every time it has won the mark count, it has won the game. Centre stoppage will play a big role, however, in how this one plays out. GWS has been relatively unreliable around the structured set up of centre stoppages, while this is where Port Adelaide does the bulk of its damage.
Tip: The Power will maintain its stranglehold over the Giants. Port Adelaide by 20 points.
Richmond v Gold Coast at Ikon Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Gold Coast 5.6 (36) def. Richmond 5.5 (35), round six 2023
In a battle for the No.1 draft pick, Richmond and Gold Coast are oddly at different ends of the spectrum despite their position on the ladder. Gold Coast made plenty of changes at the end of last year, and are looking toward an absolute bounty from its academy later this year, while Richmond has just begun an independent review into its AFLW program. They have played off five times across the AFLW since they joined in 2020, and alternated results over those five games.
Both teams have really struggled to turn their forward entries into goals this year, both hovering around 12 per cent goal efficiency, but the Suns are far more vulnerable defensively, which will likely be the decider. Just like last week against Collingwood, this is a chance for an inefficient attacking team to cash in, with Katie Brennan the most likely avenue to goal. Gold Coast concedes and average of 42 inside 50s and 67.9 points this year, as it just make things too easy for opposition sides to get into attacking positions.
Tip: The Suns will secure the No.1 pick. Richmond by 14 points.
Sydney v Essendon at C.ex Coffs International Stadium, 5.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Essendon 4.3 (27) def. Sydney 3.6 (24), week six 2024
As the Swans teeter on the edge of the top eight, they go into this one with a must-win attitude, and the best case scenario would be a percentage-boosting win to further secure a return to finals. This means not allowing junk time goals in the final quarter. They have played the Bombers twice before, and have lost both by less than a goal, and this is an opportunity to turn that form line around. Essendon, meanwhile, is on an eight-game losing streak as it has struggled to put together four strong quarters.
The ruck battle will no doubt be a fascinating sub-plot of this game, with Ally Morphett and Steph Wales both dangerous in their own way. Morphett essentially becomes another midfielder, using her power to clear contests and get the ball into attacking positions, while Wales adds that defensive pressure around contest and provides a really reliable aerial threat all over the ground. Without Chloe Molloy and Cynthia Hamilton for the Swans, it is on players like Morphett, Montana Ham, and Lucy McEvoy to pick up the slack.
Tip: The Swans will do what they can to keep fate in their own hands. Sydney by 25 points.
Geelong v Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium, 7.15pm AEDT
Last time they met: Melbourne 6.6 (42) def. Geelong 6.4 (40), week one 2024
The Demons are smarting. They narrowly lost to Brisbane last week in an important opportunity to exert control on the competition, and couldn’t establish their normal transition game that has been so damaging this week. They lost the contested possession for the third time in the last four weeks – something that they hadn't experienced to that point – and it is a sure-fire way of unsettling their game. Now the question becomes, can Geelong take advantage of this vulnerability, and use it to their advantage?
Melbourne is the League's leading intercept team with 71.6 per game, and it will want to capitalise on any lazy ball use from the Cats. This also makes the ground-level players of the Cats more crucial, with players like Aishling Moloney, Mikayla Bowen, and Nina Morrison potentially able to break through Melbourne's defensive structures. Forcing the visitors' small defenders to get to work can create some chaos and disruption, opening chances to score. In the Demons' attack, eyes will be on Kate Hore to see if she can dob two goals to crack the century.
Tip: The Demons will finish the home and away season on a high. Melbourne by 19 points.
SUNDAY NOVEMBER 2
Collingwood v Brisbane at Victoria Park, 1.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Brisbane 10.12 (72) def. Collingwood 3.2 (20), week three 2024
Second place on the ladder – and a home final – is within reach for Brisbane, but it would require a big win over Collingwood on Sunday afternoon. The visitors will be keen to make the game fast and chaotic, which does spell danger for the Pies. Their biggest losses this year – against North Melbourne, the Wester Bulldogs, and West Coast – have come as a result of that quick, aggressive movement that catches the backline out of position. Although tall duo Dakota Davidson and Taylor Smith haven't been in their League-leading form of seasons gone past, they still require close checking, while the likes of Neasa Dooley, Sophie Conway, Charlie Mullins, and Poppy Boltz are also attacking threats.
Collingwood generally struggles to create attacking movement, and kick scores. Last week's win, with a score of 39 points, came more as a result of Gold Coast's defensive deficiencies than it did a reliable attacking game from the Pies. They won't be afforded such space and time this week, so being thoughtful once the ball is won will be crucial. Players like Natalie Grider, Jen Dunne, and this week's 100-gamer Shannon Campbell are adept at chopping off any wayward entries.
Tip: The Lions will challenge for that home final. Brisbane by 45 points.
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs at RSEA Park, 3.05pm AEDT
Last time they met: Western Bulldogs 5.6 (36) def. St Kilda 5.5 (35), week nine 2024
Both St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs are coming off losses in round 11, but the Dogs' loss to Geelong is arguably the more disappointing one. Expected to seriously challenge Geelong following a patch of very dominant form, the Dogs will be viewing this as one final chance to show that aggressive attacking style for the year. The Saints generally allow opposition sides plenty of opportunities close to goal, so there is an open door there for the Dogs to release the shackles and just get that attacking game going. They just need to be smart about how they enter their forward 50, given the intercepting ability of Serene Watson, Nic Stevens, and Alice Burke.
Although St Kilda concedes the third-most inside 50s in the League this year, behind Gold Coast and Essendon, it concedes the fifth-fewest points per week as a result of a grim defensive line. This is where the game can be won or lost. Meanwhile at the other end of the ground, Jesse Wardlaw is hitting form at the right time, and there are a host of midfielders like J'Noemi Anderson, Hannah Priest, and Georgia Patrikios pressing forward to hit the scoreboard in support.
Tip: The Saints will get that momentum into finals. St Kilda by 15 points.
Adelaide v Fremantle at Norwood Oval, 4.35pm ACDT
Last time they met: Adelaide 7.7 (49) def. Fremantle 1.6 (12), semi-final 2024
Adelaide coach Matthew Clark has repeatedly signalled poor second and third quarters as the reasoning behind its drop in form this year, and a loss could very well lead to the side missing finals for the first time since 2020. Fremantle, meanwhile, could still make finals with a victory and some other results going its way. Its only win over the Crows from nine starts came at Norwood Oval, and it was through relentlessness in small moments, and it is in those moments that it has ticked over the wins this year. What the Crows have in their pocket, however, is the emotional surge. Anne Hatchard's 100th game, and the desire to progress in Clarke's last season could very well get them over the line.
Kiara Bowers has taken ownership of many run-with roles this season, so could she be tasked with limiting the output of reigning AFLW best and fairest winner Ebony Marinoff? The Crows have been challenged in the midfield this year, but it has also forced an evolution in the line, with Brooke Boileau and Sarah Goodwin starting to have a real impact. The real difference between the sides, however, is defensively. Fremantle gives up just under a goal more per game compared to Adelaide. Crows spearhead Caitlin Gould will be better for the run last week, so will be eyeing off this opportunity to get back to her best form.
Tip: The Crows will get it done with their season on the line. Adelaide by eight points.
