GIVEN the difficulty of the first half of its fixture, Carlton knew it would have a strong read on where it stood amid the NAB AFLW competition.
The Blues played premier Brisbane, preliminary finalist Collingwood and finalist North Melbourne (with 13th-placed Geelong added as a result of a fixture change) across the first four rounds of the season.
Runner-up Adelaide is to come on Sunday, with finalist Fremantle tentatively fixtured for the following weekend.
Even before taking on those two powerhouse sides – who are currently undefeated – Carlton is languishing in 10th spot with one victory.
Most damning is its percentage of 60, which at the start of round five was only ahead of winless sides Western Bulldogs, West Coast and St Kilda.
So, where exactly do the Blues stand?
A quick history lesson
In 2019, Carlton made the Grand Final (albeit benefiting from a lopsided conference system). In 2020, the Blues had qualified for a blockbuster preliminary final against the Kangaroos before the season was cancelled.
Last year, buoyed by the recruitment of experienced Elise O'Dea and some midfield depth in Maddy Guerin, the Blues were early flag favourites, as judged by captains and coaches alike in pre-season surveys.
But slow starts to matches and lapses in both confidence and concentration resulted in Carlton missing finals, finishing one game and 16.7 per cent out of the top six.
The weight of external expectation had breached the four walls, but the issues that plagued the side in 2021 were seen internally as fixable.
A horror trade period
There's no way around it. Losing five senior players – Jess Hosking, Chloe Dalton and Tayla Harris to trades, and Katie Loynes and Alison Downie through delistings – made for a grim trade period.
Harris and the club parted in acrimonious circumstances with "irreconcilable differences" over pay. Her output in 2021, by her own admission, was poor, but she was still a strong focal target in attack for the smalls to work alongside.
Winger Chloe Dalton had not played in 2021 due to rugby commitments, but her pace was missed throughout the season.
The tough and versatile Jess Hosking played a "fix it" role for Carlton, slotting in wherever needed some patchwork.
The staggered loss of Hosking and sister Sarah the year prior, as well as veteran Loynes, has exposed a very young Carlton midfield.
In their place, the club brought in Jess Dal Pos from GWS, who has played across half-back, forward-ruck Jess Good from the SANFLW, and draftees Annie Lee, Keeley Sherar, Brooke Vickers and Imogen Milford.
What's happened since?
The Blues are down in a number of key statistics in 2022.
2021 average |
Statistic |
2022 average |
232.3 |
Disposals |
225.8 |
131.8 |
Kicks |
139.3 |
100.6 |
Handballs |
86.5 |
42.0 |
Marks |
46.5 |
109.1 |
Contested possessions |
91.5 |
53.3 |
Tackles |
43.0 |
21.4 |
Clearances |
17.8 |
30.7 |
Inside 50s |
26.0 |
6.9 |
Goals |
3.5 |
Of most concern to coach Daniel Harford would be contested possessions and tackles.
The knock-on effect has seen average clearances, inside 50s and goals drop.
The Blues have two key forwards – Good and Milford – on their list, and both were unavailable for the past two matches due to AFL health and safety protocols.
As dangerous as Nicola Stevens, Darcy Vescio and Georgia Gee are at ground level, if the ball isn't getting into attack or only entering through rushed kicks, there's little the medium and small forwards can do without a tall target to help shoulder the load.
"When you look back that far, I didn’t measure (the players who had left) in wins and losses, more about the style of play and the effort and the intensity that we played with," Harford told SEN this week.
"I think that’s one of the things at the moment we just haven’t quite hit on the head, and we haven’t quite nailed.
"It’s more about the education process where whatever group you have, we get to play a style and intensity that you wanted and that’s probably the area where we’re having a bit of a disconnect and we need to fix it pretty quick I reckon.
"[It's] absolutely an area to address and the manner it’s happening at the moment would suggest there’s a lack of confidence.
"The confidence drops out really quickly when things don’t go right at the start. We’ve got to deal with that and help our players grow and be able to have some resolve and resilience in those moments and stay the course."
Do we need to adjust our expectations?
Four weeks into the season, Carlton has already used 27 of 30 players this season, the same number as it used across its nine rounds last year.
North Melbourne sliced through Carlton's midfield and defence with unnerving ease last weekend, though it must be noted the Blues were coming off a shorter break and a trip to Brisbane.
2022 FIXTURE Every match, every round
Eleven of the 21 on the field were 22 or younger, compared to six Kangaroos in the same age bracket.
And of that 2019 Grand Final side, just 10 remain on the list.
Courtney Jones has been a welcome addition to the attack, breaking through for a debut in her third season and rising to the occasion, while Paige Trudgeon has held up remarkably well at fullback in her second season on the list and first playing at the top level.
But the lack of a senior head in the midfield – Maddy Prespakis leads the way at just 21 – has made life difficult, with a lack of composure and confidence across the group to arrest momentum when things go awry.
In the second half of the season, Carlton is good enough to beat some less experienced sides. But as it stands, finals look unlikely.
Did you head to the footy over the weekend? Tell us your thoughts! Take the survey now
