ROUND five is packed with niggling storylines.
It's Tara Bohanna against the side she once captained, it's Chloe Molloy against Collingwood on the Victoria Park deck, it's a Grand Final rematch and a Western Derby.
Which teams will maintain their stranglehold, and which teams can disrupt history?
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
Collingwood v Sydney at Victoria Park, 1:05pm AEST
Last time they met: Sydney 8.2 (50) def. Collingwood 4.11 (35), week one 2024
The Swans have become an attacking juggernaut this year, by way of their ability to control games via marks (avg. 57.5 across the first four rounds, 22.5 more than the opposition), including 11 inside 50 per game. This has led to a record 20.5 shots on goal each week, which looms as a danger sign for Collingwood. Although the Pies have done well to defend opposition sides for long periods in games – including undefeated powerhouses North Melbourne and Melbourne – eventually the dam wall does break down, and it is here that Sydney will look to capitalise, as it has a proven record this year of scoring heavily in short patches.
The Pies are competing well at the contest, generally bringing an extra up around the ball, but the more structured set up of centre stoppage has been a problem for them this year. Their spare is largely a forward coming up – whether that changes with the addition of Jordyn Allen this week is a question to be answered – which means when they do win the ball up the field and want to move quickly, defensive units are well placed to intercept. Finding the balance here will be crucial, as there is still an impotency about Collingwood's attack.
Tip: It will be 5-0 for the Swans. Sydney by 18 points.
Carlton v Gold Coast at Ikon Park, 2:35pm AEST
Last time they met: Carlton 5.9 (39) def. Gold Coast 5.8 (38), week two 2024
There will be a bit of emotion in this match-up, with former Gold Coast captain Tara Bohanna facing the side for the first time since moving to the club she grew up supporting, while the Suns will be on a high following their impressive win last week despite being severely under strength. The Blues will enter this one without captain Abbie McKay and improved winger Yasmin Duursma, after the pair picked up injuries in last week's win over the Western Bulldogs. Meanwhile, the Suns will regain powerful midfielder Charlie Rowbottom, and reliable intercepting defender Meara Girvan – both big wins at the selection table.
Improvement in Carlton's ball movement has been notable, and it has made the club particularly difficult to defend, but the absence of McKay and Duursma will impact this – the domino effect of requiring Mimi Hill to play a bit more of a contested game will be relevant. Irish duo Dayna Finn and Erone Fitzpatrick, however, will continue to be damaging players in their own right. Key to the movement from Carlton has been its ability to win outside ball, while locking down the opposition's space to do the same. Gold Coast is allowing its opposition to win 143.8 uncontested possessions per game, but no doubt there will be a focus on limiting that number this week.
Tip: It becomes tougher without Abbie McKay, but the Blues will keep on winning. Carlton by 12 points.
Port Adelaide v Melbourne at Alberton Oval, 2:35pm ACST
Last time they met: this will be their first meeting in the AFLW
The growth of players like Saraid Taylor, and Maeve Chaplin in Melbourne's defence has significantly strengthened the line, as did last week's return of Gab Colvin. This is going to make life tough for Port Adelaide's attack, which has generally been less damaging than last year without the likes of Julia Teakle and Caitlin Wendland, leaving a lot of weight for Gemma Houghton to carry. Dynamic ruck Matilda Scholz has spent a bit of time playing as a key forward this year, however, so that is certainly a lever Lauren Arnell can pull during the game if some more scoring power is required.
Around stoppage there is a real clash in method. For the Demons, there is some real nuance about how they want to exit the contest, working through via hands to find the option on the outside, before throwing it on the boot. This has made them a powerful contested possession side, averaging a record 132.8 per game. The Power tends to be more direct, wanting to gain ground at any opportunity. For this reason, structure ahead of the ball is crucial to their success.
Tip: It's the Demons' chance to really cement the bounce back. Melbourne by 22 points.
Greater Western Sydney v Western Bulldogs at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, 4:35pm AEST
Last time they met: Greater Western Sydney 10.12 (72) def. Western Bulldogs 1.3 (9), week one 2024
There is a real curiosity about both of these teams. Both have played some strong footy in patches and boast some stars, but their ability to actually do damage on the scoreboard has been found wanting this year. They lack multiple dangerous avenues to goal, meaning that despite their ability to get the ball forward – both average more than 30 inside 50s per game – they convert at particularly low rates. Greater Western Sydney turns inside 50 into goal just 10.4 per cent of the time, not helped by a record low goal accuracy of 24.5 per cent, while the Western Bulldogs are averaging a goal efficiency of just 9.3 per cent.
For the Giants, what hurts them more is a leaky defence. Teams are generating shots on goal from a whopping 56.7 per cent of their inside 50s, meaning that once forward, the Giants' opposition is more likely to score than against any other side. Part of this is the speed with which teams are getting the ball forward, particularly from centre stoppage, and presents as a real opportunity for the Western Bulldogs to get back to the free, attacking style of footy that earned them the win over Richmond back in round two.
Tip: The Dogs will land a second win. Western Bulldogs by 20 points.
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 14
Essendon v St Kilda at Windy Hill, 1:05pm AEST
Last time they met: St Kilda 3.5 (23) def. Essendon 2.3 (15), week three 2024
Essendon will be pleased to welcome co-captain Bonnie Toogood back from suspension, significantly bolstering the forward line. Alongside ruck Steph Wales, who will be better for the run last week in her own return from an ACL injury, they have the potential to do some damage against the Saints' makeshift ruck division and depleted defence. Ella Friend, whose switch to a key back role this year has given her a new lease on life, will miss while in concussion protocols, as will midfielder Liv Vesely. This year the Saints are going -15.8 inside 50s per game – the largest average inside 50 differential in AFLW history – which means they're giving opposition sides far too much time in attack.
St Kilda is also generally handing control at the contest to its opposition, and with Essendon's balanced approach to stoppage, it can exploit the opportunity the Saints will offer. Brooke Walker's unfortunate ACL injury will hurt the Bombers, however, with her run and grunt important to the way they've been able to fight out games, but the resurgence of small forward Georgia Gee has been a huge positive this year, with the former Blue back to her best.
Tip: The Bombers will get back to their winning ways. Essendon by 25 points.
Richmond v Geelong at Ikon Park, 1:05pm AEST
Last time they met: Richmond 6.10 (46) def. Geelong 5.9 (39), week seven 2024
Richmond's woes have been well-documented this year, with its connection in attack a huge issue. Despite going inside 50 more, the Tigers are turning that into actual shots on goal less efficiently, and converting the shots they do create less accurately. They still have weapons in the line, but they're not using them well, and they're also lacking the forward pressure that allowed them to control territory for longer periods last year.
The Cats, however, are on the bounce back. Last week's breakthrough win started in the middle, with Nina Morrison, Amy McDonald, and Georgie Prespakis waxing and waning beautifully to get the ball moving their way. Piper Dunlop's presence in the ruck has been a big win for the Cats this year, and will be an important factor against the Tigers' duo of Poppy Kelly and Montana McKinnon, while Jackie Parry has really taken ownership in attack, offering a steady head alongside the unpredictable nature of Aishling Moloney.
Tip: The Cats will continue to steady the ship. Geelong by 21 points.
Hawthorn v Adelaide at Kinetic Stadium, 3:05pm AEST
Last time they met: Adelaide 9.4 (58) def. Hawthorn 4.8 (32), week three 2024
The big question floating around is if last week's win over St Kilda was evidence of Hawthorn getting its style back, or if it was simply a reflection of the Saints' struggles. Hawthorn's performances this year have largely been headlined by a focus on impeding the opposition's weapons, rather than showcasing its own. What cannot be quantified, however, is the Hawks' ability to grit their teeth and find a way to win even when things aren't going their way.
Adelaide is largely trying to maintain control with a kick-mark game, and slowly the forward line is becoming more damaging. Averaging 48.3 marks per game, they're working to be really systematic in how they move the ball into attack. This will be crucial once again given the Hawks' ability to limit opposition sides' scoring opportunities once in attack. Where this one is most likely to be won or lost is in the second quarter. Hawthorn has won 100 per cent of its second quarters this year, going at 716.7 per cent for that quarter alone, while the Crows are yet to win a second quarter. If Adelaide can withstand the second-quarter surge, it will be well-placed.
Tip: It will be tight, but the Crows will get win No.3. Adelaide by two points.
Brisbane v North Melbourne at Brighton Homes Arena, 3:05pm AEST
Last time they met: North Melbourne 6.3 (39) def. Brisbane 1.3 (9), Grand Final 2024
One of the big pieces of history looming over round five is the fact that no reigning premier has ever won the Grand Final rematch. So, either North Melbourne makes more history by ending that trend, or Brisbane puts a stop to the Roos' 16-game winning streak. The Lions will be hell-bent on rectifying their record against North last year – in which they lost the two clashes between the sides by a combined 74 points.
North Melbourne appears completely impervious – it uses the ball at a record 67.5 per cent efficiency, converts its shots at goal at another record of 58.8 per cent accuracy, all the little things work – but there is one very slight vulnerability. Given the Roos' desire to be aggressive from defence, if the Lions can get speed on the ball, and runners like Courtney Hodder, Charlie Mullins, and Ruby Svarc getting on the end of it into that goal-side space, they have the potential to do some damage. Much easier said than done.
Tip: This will be the Roos' biggest challenge yet, but the streak will live on. North Melbourne by 10 points.
Fremantle v West Coast at Fremantle Community Bank Oval, 3:05pm AWST
Last time they met: Fremantle 5.5 (35) def. West Coast 1.6 (12), week eight 2024
From seven Western Derbies across the history of the AFLW, the Eagles are yet to claim a win. But this year feels different. West Coast has come home like a steam train in each of its last two matches, while the Dockers are on the ropes and struggling to establish control in-game. Fremantle is vulnerable to opposition runs of momentum, having given up runs of six goals twice against Brisbane, 16 straight goals against North Melbourne, and five consecutive goals against Sydney last week. The Eagles, meanwhile, take their momentum and run with it, including the last five goals of the game against St Kilda, and runs of three, four, and three against Port Adelaide last week.
West Coast's contested marking has been a real highlight of its game this year, averaging a record 9.3 per game – 4.3 more than its opposition – and six marks inside 50. For Fremantle, it's clearance work that it's best at, but in the post-clearance phase it loses touch, turning the ball over at record pace. This is a really key area for the Dockers to tighten the screws, because a lot of other problems, including full-ground defence, can be minimised by taking a bit more care with ball in hand.
Tip: It's time. West Coast by 15 points.
