CAN ANYONE beat North Melbourne?
It's Carlton's turn to throw everything at the League leaders as part of a bumper round six, that also includes what will be a fiery Sydney Derby, and the first face-off between Mick Stinear and Daisy Pearce as opposing coaches.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20
Collingwood v Hawthorn at Victoria Park, 12.35pm AEST
Last time they met: Hawthorn 11.7 (72) d Collingwood 3.8 (26), W2 2024
In a turn that few would have predicted in preseason, the gap between Collingwood and Hawthorn's average score so far this year is just 0.2 points due to the Hawks' drop off, and the Pies' impressive development. Where the Hawks have been stuck in the mire for large parts of their games, fighting it out in contested situations and struggling to execute clean chains of possession, Collingwood has been determined to take the game on and use marks to control the play.
It is in the air that the Pies can take advantage, averaging 50.6 marks per game – 6.4 of which are contested – compared to Hawthorn's 35 marks and 2.4 contested marks each week. It offers Collingwood a sense of calm in its transition, making it more dangerous as it moves down the ground. What the Hawks need to do is force long kicks down the line to contests by defending the corridor. Meanwhile, Hawthorn is conceding a record low 9.2 per cent goal efficiency, making life especially difficult for opposition forward lines – this is a warning sign for Collingwood whose attack remains its weakest line.
Tip: It will all be about who can get the game on their terms. Hawthorn by five points.
Port Adelaide v Geelong at Alberton Oval, 12.35pm ACST
Last time they met: Geelong 11.4 (70) d Port Adelaide 5.12 (42), R4 2023
In what will be a real showcase of chaos v control, it is fair to anticipate some real swings of momentum between Port Adelaide and Geelong on Saturday afternoon. The Power's style of surge footy gives them plenty of looks inside 50, and then the conversation switches to the firepower they have available. The decision to switch defender Indy Tahau into attack in recent weeks has been a masterstroke from Lauren Arnell, with the tall able to complement Gemma Houghton, and take some of the pressure off in the absence of Julia Teakle.
For the Cats, it really does come down to an ability to make the most of the opportunities they create. Port Adelaide might be scoring 47 points per game, but it is also giving up more than 50, giving opposition teams plenty of looks. The combination of Jackie Parry and Aishling Moloney is becoming increasingly damaging, and has the potential to really break the game open for Geelong, while Mikayla Bowen's impact up the field then speed back toward goal has been crucial this year.
Tip: This will be a shootout. Geelong by 12 points.
North Melbourne v Carlton at Arden Street Oval, 2.35pm AEST
Last time they met: North Melbourne 12.7 (79) d Carlton 1.4 (10), W5 2024
North Melbourne's first ever game was against Carlton back in 2019, and it was the biggest win on debut of any expansion side. Since then, the Roos have beaten the Blues a further four times. But arguably this year's matchup is the most interesting. The Roos are the juggernaut that seem untouchable, while the Blues have been the upstart improvers of the League, challenging fancied oppositions with their ball movement and run.
Both teams want to use the ball by foot, utilising uncontested possessions and marks, but North Melbourne is doing that on a whole new level to anything seen in the AFLW before. Going at an average disposal efficiency of 67.2 per cent around the ground, and converting its shots on goal at a whopping 59.4 per cent accuracy, it is vital the Blues establish a strong balance between unsettling that elite ball use, and maintaining their own attacking game. Pressure on the ball carrier, and accountability to the spreading runners are must dos against the Roos if a team is any chance.
Tip: The Blues are a strong chance to challenge, but it's impossible to tip against the Roos. North Melbourne by 15 points.
Fremantle v Essendon at Fremantle Oval, 1.05pm AWST
Last time they met: Fremantle 5.6 (36) d Essendon 4.2 (26), EF 2024
This one is likely to become a stoppage heavy, contested game given the style of footy both Fremantle and Essendon have been playing this year, and as a result the ruck battle between Mim Strom and Steph Wales will be crucial. It is the matchup fans were starved of in last year's elimination final due to Wales' ACL injury, but this year will be the fire starter for both teams. Both are strong at turning their tap work into influence around the ground, but in different ways, and can make the other accountable with that impact.
Fremantle has leaked some big scores this year, and although it has tightened up its full ground defence, and has learned to slow end-to-end transition footy, but there are certainly still some vulnerabilities that Essendon could exploit. The Bombers need to get aggressive on their transition game and move the ball with speed, while the Dockers must turn their clearance strength into a territory game, from which their defensive structures can be maintained.
Tip: The Dons are a little too depleted. Fremantle by 10 points.
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 21
Sydney v Greater Western Sydney at Henson Park, 1.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Sydney 6.7 (43) d Greater Western Sydney 6.4 (40), W4 2024
There will be plenty of fire around this contest, with Sydney desperate to get back on the winners list following its first blemish of the season, and Greater Western Sydney keen to gather some momentum off the back of its first win in more than a year. The Swans' poor starts this season have been a problem, allowing the opposition to get some early confidence and leaving them "reactive to the game state" according to head coach Scott Gowans. This is something the Giants will undoubtedly be aware of, and will be keen to come out swinging on Sunday afternoon.
The Georgia Garnett/Tarni Evans combination up forward for the Giants is one that can ask some questions of Sydney's defence, which got a reality check last week, while Chloe Molloy and Montana Ham could do some damage against a Giants backline that is conceding 50 points per game. The Swans' balance between the hard ball, and then their ability to spread has been a highlight of their game this year, but is susceptible to high pressure, but it is Ally Morphett who could prove to be the game breaker. Against the undersized ruck division of Eilish O'Dowd and Grace Kos, Morphett's athleticism and strength in the air could allow her to dominate the contest.
Tip: It won't be easy, but the Swans will bounce back. Sydney by two points.
Melbourne v West Coast at Casey Fields, 1.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Melbourne 11.16 (82) d West Coast 2.1 (12), R7 2023
Once friends, now foes, Mick Stinear and Daisy Pearce will find themselves in opposing coaches boxes on Sunday for the first time. Despite the close nature of their relationship, there will certainly be no love lost between the sirens, with both teams determined to bounce back from close losses last week. Notably, across the three games these teams have played, Melbourne has won by an average of 69 points. The other fascinating matchup, although not likely to be a pure head-to-head, is Kate Hore v Ella Roberts. Hore, the captain of the Demons, is a game changer and can be particularly damaging in front of goal – currently sitting as the AFLW's all-time leading goalkicker – while Roberts plays a similar way, as a taller midfield option who can press forward and is strong in the air
Last week it was through Port Adelaide's pressure that Melbourne struggled to establish any rhythm in the game. Its inability to chain possession and find that flow made attacking a challenge for much of the day, and late when the Demons were on the charge, inaccuracy in front of goal hurt. It is this pressure game that the Eagles can take a leaf out of the Power's book, getting physical in tight to disrupt Melbourne's handball link away from the contest.
Tip: It will be the Demons again, but the gap has narrowed. Melbourne by 20 points.
Western Bulldogs v Brisbane at Whitten Oval, 3.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Brisbane 11.15 (81) d Western Bulldogs 5.4 (34), W4 2024
Two inaugural teams, the last time the Western Bulldogs beat Brisbane was the 2018 Grand Final. Since then, they have trod very different paths. The Dogs have reached finals just once more – the 2022 (S7) elimination final – while the Lions have been in four of the last five deciders and won two flags in the process. Now, they face off after dropping their respective round five matches, wholly focused on keeping their seasons on track. It is in the second half that Brisbane has done the bulk of its damage this year, scoring heavily and defending well, and this alone presents as a concern for the Bulldogs, who are yet to win a third quarter this season.
It will be crucial for the Dogs to maintain length on the ground, particularly in defence. This doesn't mean flooding back and simply outnumbering, rather keeping structure behind the play and not getting sucked up into the play. Brisbane often works to open space close to goal, into which it can send the ball to running forwards to capitalise on that space. With a diligent defensive structure, this can be disrupted. The Western Bulldogs, meanwhile, are still lacking genuine weapons in attack, and are struggling to turn forward entries into scores.
Tip: The Lions will bounce back again. Brisbane by 30 points.
St Kilda v Richmond at RSEA Park, 3.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Richmond 10.1 (61) d St Kilda 3.5 (23), R1 2022 (S6)
It has been quite some time since St Kilda and Richmond last faced off in the AFLW, but on that day the Tigers were simply dominant – and accurate. They will be wanting to replicate that 2022 (S6) performance, given they are yet to snag a win this season, but the Saints are fresh off a big win, where they got their groove back. Second quarters this year have really highlighted Richmond's issues, yet to win one, and having been outscored by 39 points in each of their last two second quarters.
The Tigers are vulnerable when forced to defend one-on-one, and then use that individual skill to rebound back out. They're further pressured by the neat handball game they're allowing opposition sides to use to establish clean exit from stoppage. For the Saints, it will be about creating an aggressive territory game, giving Wardlaw plenty of looks and piling the panic on Richmond's backline. When St Kilda has won this year (rounds one and five), it has owned the footy – both inside and outside the contest – and then used it well off the back of that. It's when the Saints get the basics right, that they find control in game.
Tip: The Saints will even the ledger. St Kilda by 17 points.
Gold Coast v Adelaide at People First Stadium, 5.05pm AEST
Last time they met: Adelaide 7.5 (47) d Gold Coast 2.3 (15), R5 2023
Gold Coast will unveil its much-loved pink guernsey for the first time in the AFLW this weekend when it hosts Adelaide, as it aims to land a second win for the season. The Rhyce Shaw style is firmly in place, helping the Suns to create attack in game, but there are still some growing pains, particularly in the transition to defensive running once the ball has been turned over. The Suns are conceding 70 points per game, along with 41.6 inside 50s, 11.4 marks inside 50, and 24.2 shots on goal – all AFLW records. They cannot allow the Crows to trap them in defence, rather work to make thoughtful exits from the back half. The positioning of talls Havana Harris, Darcie Davies, and Lauren Bella for these exits will be important, and they simply must be competitive in the aerial contest.
Adelaide is allowing its opposition just two contested marks per game – something Harris and the like will no doubt be focused on changing – and found a consistent output across four quarters for the first time this year in last week's win over Hawthorn. Its inconsistency has been a huge concern, but Sunday's match will be a chance to confirm that consistency – both from game to game, and quarter to quarter – although it must do so without Chelsea Randall, who will miss due to concussion protocols.
Tip: The Suns will get looks, but the Crows will be clinical. Adelaide by 27 points.