Carlton players sing the team song after beating Fremantle in round seven, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos

THE RACE for the top eight is heating up in the 2025 NAB AFLW season. And the fate of many sides rests in the hands of big improver Carlton.

With a little over a month left in the longest season yet, Carlton's run home – starting with Sunday's battle with Geelong – will have serious implications on who reaches finals.

"We've got a real logjam, I think, at this time of the year because we've got a lot of teams vying to make finals. Teams that are there at the moment are out of the top eight on percentage alone at this point," Sophie Welsh said on the W Download.

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W Download: The unpredictable Saints and Giants meet, life without Batesy and the eight-shaping Blues

Gemma Bastiani, Sarah Black and Sophie Welsh take a look at all the action ahead of round eight of the NAB AFLW season. Which Saints and Giants teams will show up? How will the Hawks cover the loss of Emily Bates? And who’s set to have a big say in the race to finals?

The Blues, who are currently a game inside the eight – and only percentage out of the top four heading into round eight – have Geelong (currently 10th, 12 points), Sydney (sixth, 16), St Kilda (ninth, 16), Greater Western Sydney (15th, eight), and West Coast (eighth, 16) to round out their season.

Notably, Carlton has already played Brisbane and Hawthorn – two more sides stuck in that logjam – claiming one victory, and a narrow loss.

These are the games that will shape the finals series.

St Kilda and West Coast both entered the League in 2020 and are the only sides yet to qualify for a finals series – will Carlton dash those hopes when they face them in round 10 and 12 respectively?

Geelong is coming off a frustrating loss to Hawthorn, breaking a run of three wins and will be coming from a long way back should it drop Sunday's game against the Blues.

Geelong players look dejected after a loss to Hawthorn in round seven, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

A perfect first month of footy from the Swans turned swiftly, with a string of losses making their aim of returning to finals that much tougher, so round nine against Carlton could prove an 'eight-point game' – a chance to move up, but also take something away from the Blues who are fighting for a similar spot.

Among it all are the Giants. All but ruled out of a finals spot, but on a good day they can do some real damage.

ANALYSIS
R8 PREVIEW: Finals race heats up with pivotal games

And floating around the mid-ladder squeeze are Essendon and Fremantle, who both have challenging final months of the year.

So, if you want to know who is going to qualify for finals, keep a close eye on Carlton's final five weeks of footy. It will decide who reaches the business end, and whose year will end on the first weekend of November.