Max Gawn and his Melbourne teammates look dejected after a loss to Collingwood in the qualifying final on September 7, 2023. Picture: Getty Images

MELBOURNE is staring at an unwanted piece of history on Friday night as the threat of another straight-sets finals exit looms.

The Demons need to beat Carlton at the MCG to avoid dropping a fourth consecutive September game having lost a qualifying final and semi-final last season.

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If they lose on Friday night, the Dees would become the first team since the current finals system was introduced in 2000 to suffer a straight-sets finals exit in consecutive years.

A top-four finish was once considered a near guarantee to make a preliminary final, but the chances of success have dropped significantly in recent years.

Since 2014, eight teams in nine seasons have exited in straight sets after just two clubs suffered that fate in the 14 seasons beforehand.

The introduction of the pre-finals bye may have been a contributing factor; since it came in in 2016, five teams in seven seasons have lost two straight finals after finishing in the top four compared to five teams in the 16 seasons before the bye was introduced.

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Even if the Dees can keep their season alive by beating the Blues on Friday night, they'll need to defy history to win the premiership this season.

Since the finals format was changed in 2000, only five of 46 teams to have lost a qualifying final have gone on to win the flag that year – Brisbane in 2003, Sydney in 2005, West Coast in 2006, Hawthorn in 2015 and Richmond in 2020. And only three other teams – Sydney in 2016, Collingwood in 2018 and Geelong in 2020 – have lost a qualifying final, made it through to the Grand Final and lost.

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History also suggests a straight-sets finals exit can have a longer-lasting impact. None of the nine teams to have dropped out of finals in straight sets have won the flag the following season, with only one team – Sydney in 2016 – making the Grand Final a year later.

STRAIGHT-SETS EXITS

(Teams to lose a qualifying and semi-final in the same season since 2000)

2001: Port Adelaide (3rd)
2007: West Coast (3rd)
2014: Fremantle (4th)
2014: Geelong (3rd)
2015: Sydney (4th)
2016: Hawthorn (3rd)
2018: Hawthorn (4th)
2019: Brisbane (2nd)
2021: Brisbane (4th)
2022: Melbourne (2nd)