WHEN Carlton was in trouble in Opening Round and needed a late goal to get past Brisbane at the Gabba, it was the Blues' newfound turnover game that saved them, offering an early indication of how the preliminary finalists would change this season.

On that occasion, Mitch McGovern took an intercept mark after Lions midfielder Josh Dunkley cleared his back 50 with a long kick to the wing, with the resulting turnover ending with Harry McKay kicking the match-winning goal.

So it was again deep in last Saturday's win against Fremantle as the Blues forced a turnover from defender Alex Pearce's long clearing kick and got the ball into Charlie Curnow's hands for a crucial late goal that kept them afloat.

The Blues' turnover game has come under the spotlight this week amid a drastic drop in their clearance numbers, posing the question: how are they undefeated when they rank ahead of only Geelong for clearance differential?

Perhaps more importantly, how are they scoring when they have slid from first in 2023 for points from clearance differential (+11.8) to 15th (-10.3)?

The answer is the turnover game that Champion Data stats show have been crucial to nine of the past 10 premiers, who have all ranked top six in scores from turnover differential. The exception was the Western Bulldogs in 2016.

While the Blues reached a preliminary final in 2023 on the back of an exceptional midfield that was better than any team at preventing scores from stoppages, the team's new model would appear a more sustainable one based on the recent history of premiership teams.  

It is also a case of where Carlton is forcing opposition turnovers, with the team building an ability to repeatedly regain the ball in its front half. This was again on show against Fremantle, particularly during a flurry at the end of the second quarter that resulted in scoring shots that weren't capitalised on.

They forced a total of 26 forward half turnovers (above their season average of 24) against the Dockers for a return of 5.5 (their lowest total points and conversion rate for the season).

Their defenders, including Jordan Boyd, have been brilliant through a 4-0 start at forcing turnovers and winning their own intercept possessions in damaging positions.

How much Carlton's style changes with the return of star midfielder Sam Walsh is still to be seen, but maintaining their turnover game while gaining a lift in stoppage ascendency can only be a good thing for the fourth-placed team, highlighting the significant upside they still have.

Walsh, who is yet to play this season because of a back injury, was a member of the Blues' most common centre bounce combination last year and has effectively been replaced by George Hewett in the most used rotation while he is unavailable.

Without Walsh, the centre bounce numbers have taken a significant hit.

The situation at an undefeated Geelong is different, despite the Cats now sitting 18th for clearance differential (-8.8) this season, given it wasn't a strength in 2023 either, ranking 15th (-2.3).

Where the Blues have built a brilliant turnover game, the Cats have lifted in that area while also making a big jump in centre bounce scoring to now lead the AFL for points scored (22.0) from that source.

Their preferred combination appears to be Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Atkins and Tanner Bruhn, with the trio attending 11 centre bounces together in their only match alongside each other in round one against St Kilda.

The other big improvement at Geelong has been the team's ability to defend turnovers, leading the League and conceding only 33.0 points from that source, ahead of Carlton with 35.0. It's been a significant rise from 10th in 2023.

The slight increase in time up the ground for superstar forward Jeremy Cameron could be playing a role in the Cats' adjustments, with Cameron's midfield time lifting from one per cent in 2023 up to nine per cent this year.

It was on show as the Cats kicked a crucial fourth-quarter goal against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night in Gather Round, with Cameron streaming through the centre square to set up Oliver Henry's second goal after defending a run of five inside 50s.

For both the Cats and Blues, sitting bottom two for clearance differential has proved no hurdle to an undefeated start. They have gone about it in slightly different ways, but it's garnered the same result where it matters.