UP-AND-coming big man Mitch Clark says the Brisbane Lions must pay attention to the nature of Fremantle's losses and not the number of them ahead of Sunday's clash at the Gabba.
The Lions have made five changes in a 25-man squad for the round 11 match, with Jason Roe and Ash McGrath forced out by hamstring injuries.
James Polkinghorne, Robert Copeland, Cheynee Stiller, Matthew Leuenberger and potential debutant James Hawksley have been added to the remaining 20 players who turned out in last week’s win over the Kangaroos.
Fremantle’s record stands at 1-9 with six consecutive losses but Clark isn’t sure those figures will count for anything come Sunday afternoon.
“Obviously Fremantle has been struggling a bit but most of its losses have been similar to ours – close losses in pretty tight games,” Clark said.
“They’ve been competitive against some good teams and I expect they will be competitive again on Sunday.”
Fremantle included Mark Johnson, Peter Bell, Josh Head and Robbie Warnock in its 25-man squad, with Paul Duffield omitted.
Both sides will trim their teams to the standard 22 on Friday afternoon.
Brisbane Lions
B: Josh Drummond, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Jared Brennan, Joel Macdonald, Troy Selwood
C: Anthony Corrie, Simon Black, Tim Notting
HF: Michael Rischitelli, Jonathan Brown, Justin Sherman
F: Rhan Hooper, Daniel Bradshaw, Travis Johnstone
Foll: Jamie Charman, Luke Power, Jed Adcock
I/C: Scott Harding, James Polkinghorne, Mitch Clark, James Hawksley, Robert Copeland, Cheynee Stiller, Matthew Leuenberger
Fremantle
B: Dean Solomon, Antoni Grover, Michael Johnson
HB: David Mundy, Luke McPharlin, Marcus Drum
C: Garrick Ibbotson, Peter Bell, Brett Peake
HF: Rhys Palmer, Chris Tarrant, Kepler Bradley
F: Jeff Farmer, Matthew Pavlich, Chris Mayne
Foll: Aaron Sandilands, Ryan Crowley, Josh Carr
I/C (from): Mark Johnson, Scott Thornton, Heath Black, Byron Schammer, Josh Head, Shaun McManus, Robert Warnock
On the punt:
The Lions will started firm favourites for a fourth straight week as they look to make it four wins on the trot. The home side is poised to enter the weekend at $1.12, compared to Fremantle’s $5.75.
A Lions’ victory of 40 points or more is also short at $2, so those looking for something a little more exotic may fancy a half time margin of 37 or more points ($3.40). The respective Coleman and Brownlow Medal prices of Jonathan Brown ($9) and Simon Black ($4.75) have tightened significantly in the last week.
Key match-up:
Jamie Charman (Lions) v Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle): There will be significant intrigue in who backs up the number one ruck pairing – with the Lions including Leuenberger in addition to incumbent Clark and Fremantle naming Robbie Warnock as well as Kepler Bradley. However, the main battle promises to hold plenty of interest and importance as well. Sandilands looks odds-on to get his fair share of taps but if Charman can limit their effectiveness and hit a few of his own to advantage, the Lions’ class midfield should be well supplied.
Odds and sods:
* The Gabba is one of four current venues at which Fremantle has never won – the others being Manuka Oval in Canberra, TIO Stadium in Darwin and Homebush in Sydney. The catch is that Freo have only played once at each of those venues, but has turned out seven times in Brisbane without saluting. Every other team that has played at the Gabba, with the exception of merger partner Fitzroy, has won at the venue.
* The teams come into the game with vastly different form lines, but their average losing margins are almost identical. In four losses, the seventh-placed Lions have gone down by an average 18 points – with a 27-point loss to Geelong their heaviest defeat. Meanwhile 15th-placed Fremantle, despite losing to Richmond by 64 points in round four, has lost nine matches by an average of 18.8 points.
* Fremantle entered the season with the oldest list in the league with an average age of 24 years and 149 days (as at March 20) – almost two years older than that of the Lions. True to form, Freo could take the field on Sunday with four players – Peter Bell, Jeff Farmer, Mark Johnson and Shaun McManus – over the age of 30. By contrast, the Lions won’t have any.
