STEVE Johnson's place in the remainder of Greater Western Sydney's historic finals campaign hinges on where the Match Review Panel believes he made contact to Sydney Swans opponent Josh Kennedy.
But answering that question and predicting the outcome of the biggest decision the MRP has faced this season is a guessing game using the inconclusive vision available.
The Panel will on Monday be piecing together a complicated puzzle made up of broadcast angles, long-range behind-the-goals vision and a Swans medical report.
Right now none of those three elements paints a clear picture of the football crime Johnson has committed.
To add clarity during the hours of deliberation, officiating umpire Ray Chamberlain will likely be called on to give his perspective, and Kennedy himself may receive a call to offer his recollection of the point of impact.
It appears highly unlikely Johnson can escape without a suspension.
The vision available right now points to careless rough conduct with medium impact to the head, which results in a two-match ban down to one with an early guilty plea.
The MRP would reach that conclusion if they believe Johnson bumped and made contact with his shoulder to Kennedy's head.
"The great thing about the game is you're allowed to bump … you're allowed to run over the ball and bump someone," Panel member Michael Christian said on 3AW on Saturday.
"The challenge you have is when you do that you have to bump legally."
There is one angle available that shows Johnson starting to raise his elbow before the point of impact. The rest of the vision is obscured by Giant Joel Patfull.
If first contact is deemed to have been made by his elbow or forearm to Kennedy's head, the MRP could grade the offence as striking.
Intentional rough conduct would not hold up, but intentional striking would.
Intentional striking, with medium impact to the head, would result in a three-match ban down to two with an early guilty plea, sidelining Johnson for the Grand Final if the Giants win their way through.
The only other way Johnson could receive a three-match ban down to two is if the MRP graded the incident as careless rough conduct with high impact to the head.