SEPTEMBER has never been kind to Dan McStay.

He missed out on the 2023 premiership at Collingwood after injuring his knee the week before. He then watched on in 2024 as the team he just left, Brisbane, won in a season ruined by his ACL injury, before the Lions went back-to-back in 2025, not long after he had been dropped by the Pies for their finals campaign.

But now the resilient key forward is delivering the best football of his career, storming towards his first finals appearance since 2023, when a high-grade MCL strain in the prelim win over Greater Western Sydney cost him a premiership medal.

With Brody Mihocek departing to Melbourne last October before Mason Cox - who replaced McStay for both finals in 2025 - was delisted, Collingwood has been searching for a key forward to impact the scoreboard. That need was amplified when Jamie Elliott ruptured his ACL in the dying minutes of Scott Pendlebury’s record breaking game against West Coast in round 11.

Since then, when the Magpies have needed him most, McStay has stepped up.

In the past two months, he is the No.1 key forward in the AFL, according to Champion Data's player ratings system, ahead of two-time Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow, who is on track to claim a third by the end of the month.

One thing McStay is doing better than anyone else in the game this year is make the most of his chances in front of goal.

The 31-year-old has kicked 38.12 from 54 shots at goal at a conversion rate of 70.4 per cent, putting him ahead of the top 80 goal kickers in the AFL in 2026.

McStay's conversion rate is 14.5 per cent above his expected accuracy, another Champion Data metric that factors in the difficulty of shots on goal. Only Josh Rachele (+15.7 per cent) has a higher differential, while Coleman Medal contender Nick Watson (+14.4 per cent) is third.

In the past five weeks, McStay has produced the best block of his career to be rated No.15 by Champion Data across the entire competition, thanks to his conversion and scoreboard impact.

Craig McRae has also used him as a second ruck to support Darcy Cameron since Oscar Steene did his knee against Sydney in round 10. That has helped McStay make an impact around the ground, not just close to goal.

McStay arrived at the Lions in 2013 in the weeks after the 'go-home five' of Elliot Yeo, Sam Docherty, Jared Polec, Billy Longer and Patrick Karnezis all departed the club.

The Victorian endured the rebuild under Chris Fagan and experienced Brisbane's return to the finals before a few Melbourne clubs offered him lucrative five-year deals to bring him home in 2022.

McStay ultimately moved to Collingwood and roared home late in 2023, but then missed out when they went all the way.

This year, he is repaying the club with the most productive football of his career and looms as the Magpies' wildcard in September.