HAVE we seen this Gold Coast story before?
Lots of high-end talent, a few older players to provide leadership, the potential for a climb up the ladder, and … a season of disappointment.
Perhaps it's unfair to call 2021 a disappointment just yet, but at 4-9 and on the back of what could politely be described as underwhelming – or more accurately as "insipid", if you ask chairman Tony Cochrane – losses to Fremantle and Port Adelaide, there's certainly a feeling of déjà vu.
What's scary for the Suns is they could still sink lower.
On Saturday afternoon they play an ever-improving North Melbourne in Hobart, followed by a date with a desperate Richmond at Metricon Stadium.
The worst-case scenario is frightening.
This year, Stuart Dew's fourth at the helm, was meant to be the season Gold Coast rose, not necessarily into the top eight, but pushing for it.
After finishing 14th last season and bumping their percentage up to 90, the building blocks were in place for a tilt towards the club's first taste of finals footy.
Perhaps they'll do a Richmond of 2014 and peel off a long string of victories to play in September, but on exposed form, that's about as likely as a defender winning the Brownlow Medal.
So, what should be causing the most concern at Carrara?
The easy thing to do is point the finger at Dew, whose contract expires at the end of 2022, but is likely to come under increasing pressure if results don't improve quickly.
That's too simplistic though, and although he's part of the problems below, there are other elements that need to be addressed regardless of results to round out the season.
Development
The 2016 draft class was almost seen as a second coming of the Suns.
Ben Ainsworth (No.4), Will Brodie (No.9) and Jack Bowes (No.10) were all high picks expected to lead the club to the promised land.
Yet, in their fifth season, Ainsworth and Brodie are playing in the VFL and Bowes is having a solid, if unspectacular, year in defence.
Why have these players not developed? There's no one answer, but it is an indictment on the club to have such talent not producing more at the top level at this stage of their careers.
DOUBLE INJURY BLOW Suns lose experienced duo
They're not the only ones from Gold Coast's middle tier.
There's Brayden Fiorini, a No.20 pick from the 2015 draft, that has also been on the outer for two seasons.
Lachie Weller, after coming to the club (along with the pick that acquired Charlie Ballard) in exchange for the No.2 selection in 2017, is steady, but not producing his best every week.
Darcy Macpherson, third in the club's best and fairest in 2019, is also playing VFL.
It's this group of 22-25-year-old players that should be carrying the Suns to new heights, yet there's little to no production from them collectively.
Retention
This is the dark cloud that has hung over Gold Coast for much of its existence and threatens to do so again – and maybe sooner than they'd like.
Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine and Ben King are all out of contract at the end of 2022. So is Ainsworth.
St Kilda is already laying the groundwork to lure King, to join twin brother Max, when the chance arises.
Then there's Lukosius and Rankine, almost sure to be in the sights of both South Australian clubs if they get any sniff of blood in the water.
The trio have played 120 games between them, and Rankine's 26 per cent win rate is the highest of any.
Like its coaching department, the Suns have made numerous changes to its welfare team in the past two years.
There is no indication of player unrest, but ask any Suns supporter about Jaeger O'Meara, Dion Prestia, Charlie Dixon, Tom Lynch, Steven May and Jack Martin and they'll tell you they've heard this all before.
Coaching instability
Although Dew is now in his fourth year, there's been somewhat of a coaching carousel beneath him.
That will continue at the end of the season when his right-hand man, Josh Francou, heads back to South Australia for personal reasons.
It continues a string of assistant coaches that have left in recent years.
Andy Lovell and Matt Primus (2018) left at the end of Dew's first season, and last year it was senior assistants Dean Solomon, Nick Malceski and Ashley Prescott, who were, at least partly, part of the COVID-induced cutbacks.
Dew now has 'his' team.
Hearing different voices is not always a bad thing, but the longest serving line coaches remaining are in just their third seasons.
Leadership
He's not the biggest name in the competition, but he's the biggest man on the Suns' list and has the biggest presence – co-captain Jarrod Witts.
When he went down with a season-ending ACL in round three against Adelaide, the writing was on the wall for the Suns.
He's been an Iron Man since joining the club and a voice of solidarity. Rarely outplayed in the ruck, Witts offers a strong contest and ensures his midfielders are always engaged.
Chris Burgess and Caleb Graham did adequate fill-in jobs in a role they weren't familiar with, while Zac Smith has, unfortunately, been well below his best since coming back from a knee injury.
The flow-on effect has been the lack of leadership. Witts is a man his teammates want to follow. His co-captain David Swallow is the most ferocious player on the list, but quietly spoken, while 'Sergeant' Sam Collins has missed some games in defence, leaving Touk Miller as the final leadership group member to hold the fort.
When things turn south on-field, who is stepping up? We haven't seen anyone emerge from the crop beneath, and that simply must be addressed.
Where's the heart?
And finally, the performances.
Dew regularly talks about consistency of effort. Gold Coast's best is very good – ask Sydney, who they pressured and pounded relentlessly in a round six win.
But the gap to the worst is vast, and far too regular.
In the past fortnight against the Dockers and Port, the Suns have given up in excess of 70 more disposals to their opponents on each occasion, yet somehow also made fewer tackles.
How is that possible? Do they care? Do players lack the confidence in their teammates to get the job done and get sucked into the contest unnecessarily?
They're all questions that need to be answered and can only be done on the field.
Things can turn quickly for the Suns, but the above issues are ongoing and need to be addressed.
