Tim Kelly in action against North Melbourne in round 17, 2021. Picture: AFL Photos

WE WOULD all love to be bringing in the Touk Miller’s (MID, $936,000) of the world, or players firmly entrenched in Roy’s Rollin’ 22, but limited cash generation has forced many coaches to look for the ‘next best thing’ instead.

The struggle to remove the last rookies from their ground remains a constant battle with Joel Amartey (FUC/FWD, $364,000) and Dev Robertson (FWD/MID, $466,000) reminding us of the importance to do so with 38 and 27 respectively.

Therefore, the hunt for value is as important as ever and thankfully there are a number of players who are well below their asking price due to injuries that have occurred early in games or as we like to call them ‘anomaly’ scores that we think were a one off and won't happen again.

Looking at the recent scores of Tim Kelly (MID, $568,000) is a prime example with a 33 and 36 across rounds 11 and 15 which happed to be back-to-back performances and caused a price plummet before pumping out 97 and 106 in his last two. The recent two are an accurate guide to what he will score for the rest of the year, which is more than serviceable for a M8 position, especially when he also has an impressive ceiling as we saw in round seven with 141.

03:29

The Traders' round 17 Fantasy wrap

Warnie was the top scorer of the trio and is looking at Tim Kelly this week

TOP FIVE PRICE RISES

  • Lachlan Bramble (MID/FWD, $305,000) +63,000
  • Chris Burgess (DEF/RUC, $461,000) +$62,000
  • Jordan DeGoat (MID/FWD, $634,000) +$60,000
  • Christian Petracca (MID, $824,000) +$46,000
  • Jake Stringer (MID/FWD, $628,000) +46,000

TOP FIVE PRICE FALLS

  • Hugh Greenwood (MID, $618,000) -$55,000
  • Eric Hipwood (FWD, $390,000) -$50,000
  • Lachie Whitfield (MID/DEF, $721,000) -$49,000
  • Connor Idun (DEF, $395,000) -$42,000
  • Patrick Cripps (MID, $582,000) -$38,000

LOWEST BREAKEVENS

  • Ned Reeves (RUC, $245,000) - 22
  • Lachlan Bramble (MID/FWD, $305,000) - 18
  • Max Lynch (FWD/RUC, $229,000) -11
  • Nick Bryan (RUC, $195,000) -5
  • Kieren Briggs (FWD/DEF, $255,000) -4

HIGHEST BREAKEVENS

  • Mitch Duncan (MID, $714,000) 198
  • Tom Rockliff (MID, $818,000) 187
  • Darcy Parish (MID, $863,000) 157
  • Lachie Whitfield (DEF/MID, $721,000) 155
  • Dylan Shiel (MID, $722,000) 152

Watch the LIVE teams show every Thursday with The Traders. Join Roy, Calvin and Warnie from 6:15pm AEST on Facebook for the live stream as the round 12 teams drop.

BUY

Touk Miller
GOLD COAST
MID
Look, you would have to rob a bank to do it, so this is more a showing of respect to the Sun that is a gun. What he is doing at the moment for his seven per cent of coaches is ridiculous, averaging 136 in his last five games on the back 155 this week. He has a low score of 98 in his last 12 and is playing like a Pig.

Jordan De Goey
COLLINGWOOD
MID/FWD
If I haven't managed to convince you the last couple of weeks, it is time to bite your pride and just do it before his price goes from bargain to out of reach. DeGoat just keeps getting it done, backing up his 124 from a fortnight ago with 117 from 29 touches and a goal. He has three hundreds in a row and four out of five.

Lachie Neale
BRISBANE
MID
It’s time to jump on the under priced ball magnet on the back of his 116 which gives him a three-game average of 111. The Lions clearly have the best run of matchups for midfielders over the next few weeks and last years Brownlow Medallist will take full advantage of it.

Also consider: Jake Stringer, Brodie Grundy, Christian Petracca, Tim Kelly, Jake Lloyd

HOLD

Darcy Parish
ESSENDON
MID
The ball magnet got a rude awakening against the Crows who put plenty of time into ensuring the ball wasn’t in his hands. They got completely annihilated in every other aspect of the game, but at least they kept Parish quiet. He faces the Roos in round 18 and they are unlikely to tag him.

Jarryd Lyons
BRISBANE
MID
The underrated Lion has been a great unique pick for his five per cent of coaches, but on the rare occasions he has been under par, it can feel a lonely place. He was below his best on the weekend with just 84 but he has a dream run of matchups ahead and will reward you for backing him in.

Jack Macrae
WESTERN BULLDOGS
MID
It’s not that coaches have lost faith in the Dog ball magnet who has now dropped under 100 for two games in a row, it's more about the opportunity to cash him in to take advantage of money generating opportunities to assist the removal of rookies off the ground. HOLD.

Also consider: Ben Keays, Clayton Oliver, Brad Crouch.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 11: Jack Macrae of the Bulldogs in action during the 2021 AFL Round 17 match between the Western Bulldogs and the Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium on July 11, 2021 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos)

SELL

Dustin Martin
Richmond
MID/FWD
Last week I said to hold the superstar Tiger but given the state of affairs in regard to their season and the lack of motivation a three-time Norm Smith medallist would have rolling the legs over to finish the year, a trade is more than feasible. He also hasn’t reached triple figures in his last four games.

Isaac Cumming
GWS GIANTS
DEF
After demonstrating  career-best form in the four games between round 11 and 15 where he managed three triple figure scores of 106, 113 and 119, that form has dried up as we approach the business end of the season with scores of 68 and 54 in his last two. He has a tough matchup against the Swans this week which puts him on the block.

Lachie Whitfield
GWS GIANTS
MID/DEF
The Giant running machine was subbed off following a nasty head knock after playing just 29 per cent of the games for a score of 28. He has been sensational since returning from his interrupted start to the season but some doubt about his immediate future now lingers as we approach finals.

Also consider: Patrick Cripps, Kyle Langford, Lachie Hunter.

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