WITH the loss of another round of footy to COVID-19 lockdown, it means just one possible round remains before the finals are due to start on August 28.

As the AFL can no longer get all clubs to play the same number of games, the ladder will now be calculated on match ratio, with the number of wins divided by the number of matches played, multiplied by 100.

The change has reshuffled positions six to 10 on the ladder and ended the mathematical finals hopes of Carlton and Sandringham.

DRASTIC TIMES, DRASTIC MEASURES VFL ladder gets a COVID reconfiguration

But with a plan in place to have all 22 teams play one final match in round 19 next weekend, it means all finals positions remain up for grabs.

All this, of course, requires the Victorian government to release this latest lockdown in time for round 19 to take place, with the possibility of the finals format changing should we lose two more weeks.

So what does your team need to do to maximise its premiership chances or just improve its finishing position?

FOOTSCRAY (1^ST, 10-0, 169.7%, MR 100)
Past three games: W (Cas 37); W (Syd 7); W (NM 11)
Round 19 opponent: Collingwood (H)
Analysis: Made a statement after a couple of off weeks by coming from eight goals down to thrash fellow contender Casey on the road in their most recent outing. The Bulldogs have now won 18 home-and-away games in a row and are in great shape to avenge their straight sets exit from 2019.
If they win: Will finish top and claim the minor premiership.
If they lose: Will stay top if Southport lose or drop to second if the Sharks win, given their inferior percentage.
Prediction: 1^st

SOUTHPORT (2^ND, 9-1, 180.7%, MR 90)
Past three games: W (Ess 4); W (BL 109); W (BL 107)
Round 19 opponent: Brisbane Lions (A)
Analysis: Got out of jail against a cobbled together but strong Essendon before their last game was called off in the first term. The Sharks are in great shape to secure a top two finish and a home qualifying final (COVID pending) in their first VFL season.
If they win: Will win the minor premiership if Footscray loses or finish second if the Bulldogs win.
If they lose: Will finish second unless Box Hill wins and makes up a 13.02% percentage deficit – roughly 63 points. If that happens, the Sharks will be third.
Prediction: 2^nd

BOX HILL HAWKS (3^RD, 8-2, 167.7%, MR 80)
Past three games: W (Coll 63); W (GC 62); W (Asp 62)
Round 19 opponent: Richmond (A)
Analysis: Six wins in a row with the closest of those being 51 points against Essendon. Collingwood in round 16 was the first contender in that group, but the Hawks are looking very dangerous.
If they win: Will finish second if Southport lose and they can make up the gap mentioned above, or third if the Sharks win.
If they lose: Will stay third if Geelong, Casey and Williamstown all lose, fourth if one win, fifth if two win or sixth if they all win.
Prediction: 3^rd

GEELONG (4^TH, 7-2, 167.3%, MR 78)
Past three games: W (Wil 12); W (Ess 75); W (BL 118)
Round 19 opponent: Sandringham (A)
Analysis: Haven’t played a game since July 10 and the question is how that will affect them when they finally get back on the park. There’s no room for error in a thrilling finish.
If they win: Will finish third if Box Hill loses, unless Casey wins and overtakes the 0.7% percentage gap, fourth if one of those results happen or fifth if both win and the Demons make up that gap – roughly six points.
If they lose: Will finish fourth if Casey and Williamstown lose, fifth if one of them win, sixth if they both win. Could retain one position if the Demons don’t gain the percentage.
Prediction: 6^th

CASEY DEMONS (5^TH, 7-2, 166.6%, MR 78)
Past three games: L (Foo 37); W (Wer 59); L (GWS 1)
Round 19 opponent: Carlton (A)
Analysis: Looking a bit shaky with consecutive defeats at their home fortress, the most recent after being 46 points in front. Need to rediscover their mojo quickly.
If they win: Will finish third if Box Hill and Geelong both lose, fourth if one of them win and fifth if both win. They can also overhaul Geelong’s percentage even if they both win.
If they lose: Will finish fifth if Williamstown loses or sixth if the Seagulls win. Can retain one position and even finish fourth if Geelong loses by more than the Demons to make up the miniscule percentage gap.
Prediction: 4^th

WILLIAMSTOWN (6^TH, 6-2-1, 136.4%, MR 72)
Past three games: W (Cob 4); L (Gee 12); W (PM 37)
Round 19 opponent: Northern Bullants (H)
Analysis: Escaped with a crucial last-gasp victory on Sunday and could still make the top four for a remarkable eighth consecutive season and 13 out of 14. The lockdown extension guarantees they will play finals for the 15^th year in a row.
If they win: Will finish third if Box Hill, Geelong and Casey all lose, fourth if one wins, fifth if two win and sixth if they all win.
If they lose: Will stay sixth if Collingwood and GWS both lose, seventh if one of them win and eighth if both win.
Prediction: 5^th

COLLINGWOOD (7^TH, 6-3, 92.5%, MR 67)
Past three games: L (Box 63); W (Ric 5); W (San 18)
Round 19 opponent: Footscray (A)
Analysis: Lost nine percentage points after being swamped by Box Hill but are still in great shape. Their fate is in their own hands.
If they win: Guaranteed finals and will finish sixth if Williamstown lose and seventh if the Seagulls also win.
If they lose: Will finish seventh if GWS and Werribee both lose, eighth if one of them win and ninth if they both win.
Prediction: 8^th

GWS GIANTS (8^TH, 7-4, 94.4%, MR 64)
Past three games: W (BL 27); W (GC 40); W (Cas 1)
Round 19 opponent: Essendon (A)
Analysis: It is simple – win and they’re in after a great run of five wins in six games, but they will be desperate to get a game in next week, having not played as a full squad since round 13.
If they win: Guaranteed finals and will finish sixth if Williamstown and Collingwood both lose, seventh if one of them win and eighth if they both win.
If they lose: Given Frankston is playing Werribee, the Giants will finish ninth and miss the finals unless those clubs draw.
Prediction: 7^th

WERRIBEE (9^TH, 5-4, 147.5%, MR 56)
Past three games: W (NB 30); L (Cas 59); L (NM 5)
Round 19 opponent: Frankston (A)
Analysis: Came to life just in time against the Bullants to remain alive in 2021, but it all comes down to a sudden death last-round clash with the Dolphins.
If they win: The Tigers will finish seventh if Collingwood and GWS both lose, eighth if one of them win and ninth if they both win.
If they lose: They will miss the finals and could drop to 11^th.
Prediction: 10^th

FRANKSTON (10^TH, 6-5, 103.8%, MR 55)
Past three games: L (Ric 16); W (PM 95); W (Syd 28)
Round 19 opponent: Werribee (H)
Analysis: Having been in the eight for most of the year, the Dolphins are on the outer after falling short against Richmond in round 16. But with an early elimination final to come, they can at least play a part in shaping their destiny.
If they win: The Dolphins will finish eighth if GWS loses and ninth if the Giants win.
If they lose: Will miss the finals and could drop to 13^th.
Prediction: 9^th

RICHMOND (11^TH, 4-5-1, 103.4%, MR 45)
Past three games: W (Fra 16); L (Col 5); L (NB 13)
Round 19 opponent: Box Hills Hawks (H)
Analysis: Lockdown 6 put paid to the Tigers’ premiership defence despite their crucial road win over Frankston last time out. Would love to scuttle the Hawks’ top-four chances in their final game of the year.
If they win: Can rise as high as 10^th.
If they lose: Can fall as low as 15^th.
Prediction: 13^th

CARLTON (12^TH, 4-5, 101.3%, MR 44)
Past three games: W (San 49); L (Cob 37); L (NB 32)
Round 19 opponent: Casey Demons (H)
Analysis: The win over the Zebras is now for nought after the extension of Lockdown 6, but they have a golden opportunity to shape the top four.
If they win: Can rise as high as 10^th.
If they lose: Can fall as low as 15^th.
Prediction: 14^th

SANDRINGHAM (13^TH, 4-5, 94.3% MR 44)
Past three games: L (Car 49); W (Ess 67); L (Col 18)
Round 19 opponent: Geelong (H)
Analysis: The extension of Lockdown 6 ends the Zebras hopes of a miracle after their bad loss to the Blues. Like Carlton, their game directly affects the top four.
If they win: Can rise as high as 10^th.
If they lose: Can fall as low as 15^th.
Prediction: 11^th

GOLD COAST (14^TH, 4-6, 76.9% MR 40)
Past three games: W (Asp 78); L (GWS 40); L (BH 62)
Round 19 opponent: Aspley (H)
Analysis: Showed their capability with a thumping of Aspley in their last outing and would dream of repeating the dose to wrap up the season.
If they win: Can rise as high as 11^th.
If they lose: Can fall as low as 18^th.
Prediction: 12^th

NORTH MELBOURNE (15^TH, 4-6, 57.0%, MR 40)
Past three games: W (PM 17); L (Foo 11); W (Wer 5)
Round 19 opponent: Sydney (H)
Analysis: An excellent second half of the season with four wins in their past five matches and would be confident of another. Laying a good platform for next year.
If they win: Can rise as high as 11^th.
If they lose: Can fall as low as 18^th.
Prediction: 15^th

COBURG (16^TH, 3-7, 95.1%, MR 30)
Past three games: L (Wil 4); L (NB 1); W (Car 37)
Round 19 opponent: Port Melbourne (A)
Analysis: A heartbreaking season for the Lions. But for an extra 13 points across four games, they would be knocking on the door of the top four rather than sitting 16^th. They have given up their last home game to allow Gary Ayres to finish his Port career at home, but they won there earlier this year and can do so again.
If they win: Can rise as high as 14^th.
If they lose: Can fall as low as 19^th.
Prediction: 16^th

BRISBANE LIONS (17^TH, 3-7, 65.7%, MR 30)
Past three games: L (GWS 27); L (Sou 109); L (Gee 118)
Round 19 opponent: Southport (H)
Analysis: A horror season can’t end quickly enough for the NEAFL premiers. Would love to save some face against a team that has crushed them twice this year by 18 goals.
If they win: Can rise as high as 15^th.
If they lose: Can fall as low as 20^th.
Prediction: 18^th

NORTHERN BULLANTS (18^TH, 3-7, 62.6%, MR 30)
Past three games: L (Wer 30); W (Cob 1); W (Ric 13)
Round 19 opponent: Williamstown (A)
Analysis: Three wins and a three-quarter turnaround in their past four games. So much to get excited about for the future at Preston City Oval. Wouldn’t they relish the chance to kill the Seagulls’ top-four hopes?
If they win: Can rise as high as 15^th.
If they lose: Can fall as low as 20^th.
Prediction: 19^th

SYDNEY (19^TH, 2-8, 88.9%, MR 20)
Past three games: L (Foo 7); L (Fra 28); L (GWS 38)
Round 19 opponent: North Melbourne (A)
Analysis: Haven’t played a game for a long time and have relocated three times, so it is unknown how they will respond when they finally get to play again. A third win of the season would be a good consolation prize.
If they win: Can rise as high as 16^th.
If they lose: Can fall as low as 20^th.
Prediction: 17^th

ESSENDON (20^TH, 2-8, 64.5%, MR 20)
Past three games: L (Sou 4); L (San 67); L (Gee 75)
Round 19 opponent: GWS (H)
Analysis: Happy to be back in Melbourne after nearly upsetting Southport. The possibility of a wooden spoon if they lose gives them added motivation to knock the Giants out of the finals.
If they win: Can rise as high as 17^th.
If they lose: Can receive their first VFA/VFL wooden spoon.
Prediction: 21^st

PORT MELBOURNE (21^ST, 1-8, 67.3%, MR 11)
Past three games: L (NM 17); L (Fra 95); L (Wil 37)
Round 19 opponent: Coburg (H)
Analysis: Could 2021 have been any worse? Had as many as 14 out of their best team at times in a nightmare that will see their legendary coach Gary Ayres moving on. They would love the chance to send him off in the right manner in front of the Borough faithful, but that (a crowd) now seems impossible. Surely there’s a quick bounce in the offing for both parties.
If they win: Can rise as high as 19^th.
If they lose: Can take the wooden spoon for the first time since 2006.
Prediction: 20^th

ASPLEY (22^ND, 1-9, 73.0%, MR 10)
Past three games: L (GC 78); L (BH 62); L (GC 6)
Round 19 opponent: Gold Coast (A)
Analysis: Injuries to key players have made this season one to forget, but they showed enough early to suggest they can compete at this level. Would love to see the Hornets take the opportunity to make that happen next year.
If they win: Can rise as high as 20^th.
If they lose: Will claim the wooden spoon.
Prediction: 22^nd

Twitter: @BRhodesVFL

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