Head to head: Brisbane Lions 21 wins, Sydney Swans 19 wins, one draw
Last time: Sydney Swans 16.11 (107) d Brisbane Lions 13.9 (87), round six, 2010 at the SCG
MISSING IN ACTION
Brisbane Lions
Matt Austin (leg) - season
Callum Bartlett (knee) - season
Jamie Charman (ankle) - season
Josh Drummond (knee) - season
Brendan Fevola (groin) - season
Mitch Golby (knee) - season
Broc McCauley (groin) - season
Andrew Raines (quad) - season
Troy Selwood (ribs) - season
Sydney Swans
Ed Barlow (hamstring) - 1-2 weeks
Craig Bird (foot) - 2-3 weeks
Craig Bolton (achilles) - 2-3 weeks
Daniel Bradshaw (hamstring) - test
Ben McGlynn (cheekbone) - 1-3 weeks
Shane Mumford (knee) - 1-2 weeks
Jake Orreal (back) - season
Lewis Roberts-Thomson (hamstring) - 2-3 weeks
Mark Seaby (ankle) - season
Kristin Thornton (hamstring) - test
FORM
Brisbane Lions: LLWLW
Sydney Swans: LLWWW
SUMMARY
Popular opinion before the season kicked off had the Lions on the up and the Swans going in the other direction, but here we are at round 22 and the Swans go to the Gabba looking for a home final and the Lions are playing for pride. The Lions at least appear to be finishing strongly after falling into a massive hole in the middle of the season when they won just one game in 14 rounds. Recent wins over West Coast and Essendon have at least dulled the pain for the Lions’ faithful. Hidings at the hands of Melbourne and Geelong had the Swans looking shaky before a run of three impressive wins against finals-bound Hawthorn, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs ensured finals in Paul Roos’ last season in charge.
PLAYER TO WATCH
It was something of a surprise to see Jonathan Brown brought in for his 200th game after struggling with injury, but he certainly showed there was nothing wrong with him in a brilliant effort against Essendon. He booted four goals and took 16 marks against the hapless Michael Hurley.
Still only 23, Kieren Jack is well on his way to becoming a bona fide star in the Harbour City. He’s amassed 25 possessions or more and hit the scoreboard in the past three weeks and his form will be a large factor in the Swans’ progress.
QUESTION MARKS
Will the Lions stand and fight or go quietly into the night? A win over their fancied, northern-state rival will send the Lions into the off-season with something to hang their hats on.
Can the Swans maintain momentum? Last week’s win over the Dogs was driven by the emotion of Brett Kirk and Paul Roos’ final game at the SCG. Are they in for a letdown?
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
The Swans are the clear bookmakers’ favourite, but this will be closer than some think. The Lions should be keen to finish a dreadful year on a good note and Brown will ensure his team doesn’t lack for effort. But the Swans are starting to firm in calculations as thoughts turn to September thanks to some stellar play in the past three weeks. With more to play for they should get over the line.
PREDICTION
Sydney Swans by 11 points
Chat with host Scott Beveridge and other fans in the AFL Match Centre on afl.com.au from 6.40pm Saturday or join the conversation on Twitter: #afllionsswans
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
