BRISBANE could unlock a key piece of its trade period strategy on Monday with Dan McStay's free agency move to Collingwood expected to become official.
The Lions are hoping McStay's five-year deal at the Magpies will result in an end-of-first round compensation selection (No.19) from the AFL. If not, it will come after their second-round selection, meaning the pick will be No.35, with a player's age a key factor in determining compensation.
The pick difference is significant for the Lions given their busy Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period as they look to land a deal for Western Bulldogs midfielder Josh Dunkley as well as accumulate enough draft points to match bids on father-son pair Will Ashcroft and Jaspa Fletcher.
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The Lions are also looking to bolster their points tally by trading in multiple second-round selections.
A similar deal to McStay's in 2019 saw Brandon Ellis join Gold Coast from Richmond, with the Tigers given a second-round compensation selection on that occasion.
The exit of McStay as a free agent means the Lions are likely to trade for free agent signing Jack Gunston so they avoid diluting their free agency compensation for McStay, who is being eyed as a forward for the Magpies who can also play in defence if required.
If Jordan De Goey had accepted a free agency offer from St Kilda, Collingwood would likely have traded for McStay. However, the free agency move will now go through as planned.
"Dan's been at the Lions for nine years and has had a really good run there," McStay's manager Nick Gieschen from Connors Sports Management on AFL Trade Radio on Friday. "He was really open-minded at the start of the year and just wanted to focus on footy with the Lions being so close to the finals, and his goal was to win a flag.
"But as the season unfolded and having chats with his partner and family, the idea of coming home to finish his footy in Melbourne was appealing. He's been away from home since he was 17 so I think he wanted to finish his career playing in front of family and friends.
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"There was a bit of thought maybe earlier in the week depending on Jordan's situation that it may have been a trade. But it looks like now that Jordan has decided to stay, (McStay) will be a free agency move."
Liam Jones' return to the AFL, and the Western Bulldogs, could also be sealed on Monday with paperwork in line to be lodged for the Dogs to sign him under free agency.
The former Blue's comeback to the AFL after quitting due to his COVID-19 vaccination stance ahead of the 2022 season will see Carlton get a free agency compensation pick, which could be a third-round selection.
The Blues are expected to offer a future third-round selection in a trade for Fremantle wingman Blake Acres, which could be one of the first trades completed on Monday.
Melbourne also looks set to bring in a free agency selection, with Jayden Hunt on the verge of joining West Coast on a multi-year deal. The Eagles' interest in Hunt, revealed by AFL.com.au last month, is likely to be enough to garner a compensation selection for the Demons in the second half of the draft.
The free agency window opened on Friday and runs through to this Friday. The trade period will start on Monday morning, with clubs arriving in staggered groups.
Bobby Hill's move from Greater Western Sydney to Collingwood, likely for a future second-round selection, is expected to be one of the early trade deals.
