Sarah Rowe and Ruby Schleicher celebrate Collingwood win over Sydney at Victoria Park on September 13, 2025. Picture: Getty Images

AFLW tipping used to be a predictable business.

Roll into the office on a Monday morning with a comfortable 8/9 in your back pocket, having once again failed to tip Brisbane over Adelaide in their traditional heavyweight battle.

But round five made fools of us all, and indicated a closing gap between the best and the rest.

North Melbourne coach Darren Crocker has remarked he feels it takes about a month for teams to settle into the season, and more than a few have finally found their feet.

The Roos remains a class above – Kate McCarthy said she considers them to be playing in a different league after a 29-point win in the Grand Final rematch – but everyone else is fair game.

For so long, there's been a clear disparity between the big four – the Roos, Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne – and the remainder of the competition, with yet another sharp drop-off to the tail-end of the league.

Geelong bobbed up for a season (and still has the potential to be a giant killer on its day), and it was Port Adelaide's moment in the sun last year, but for the most part, the race for finals has been … somewhat monotonous.

28:14

A common refrain from men's coaches, particularly Chris Scott, is you don't have to be far off your game in order to drop a surprise match.

Sydney had cruised to a 4-0 start to the year, but arguably coasted a little too easily against Collingwood, last year's wooden spooners who have been building brick by brick.

The scoreboard hadn't shown it, but the rebuilding Pies – boosted by a revamped forward line of Kalinda Howarth (missed last year with a torn ACL), Nell Morris-Dalton (missed last year with a back injury), Mikayla Hyde (missed last year with a foot injury) and No.1 pick Ash Centra – had seriously pushed North Melbourne and Melbourne.

The win at Vic Park was coming.

Port Adelaide hasn't been able to quite recapture the highs of last year's incredible momentum, where the Power won eight straight games.

Injuries haven't helped matters this year, but a fired-up Port Adelaide kept a very inaccurate Melbourne on its toes in front of its formidable home crowd at Alberton Oval.

15:15

Greater Western Sydney finally found the full-ground connection and composure that has been missing this year, overcoming a Western Bulldogs side that have been patchy this year to say the least.

The enigma wrapped in a riddle that's St Kilda provided another twist in the tale when it completely demolished an injury-hit Essendon, who is somewhat reverting to the mean after a hot (and slightly soft) start to the season.

Adelaide reasserted the pecking order of the birds, putting Hawthorn firmly back in place after having a powerful stranglehold on both its match and the gusty Frankston wind.

And the Western Derby? West Coast was hot favourite, but Fremantle found some grit in the pouring rain after a shaky start to the year, putting its little sister back in its place with an eighth consecutive Derby win.

04:45

A slightly longer season and better spaced-out games is allowing for the development of trends, storylines and form fluctuations.

The hot holding-the-ball whistle has decreased stoppages by an average of 33 per cent year-on-year, and it appears teams are able to catch opposition off guard with fast ball movement. More scoring equals more chance of an upset.

The newest expansion sides now have four pre-seasons under their belt, and having been (understandably) behind the eight-ball to begin with, have made significant gains in strength and conditioning.

04:12

Game plans are more sophisticated, and styles of play are becoming more readily identifiable among those who normally sit in the 9-13 tier of the ladder.

As the ladder itself is shaping up, it appears a bottom four of Richmond, Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney and the Western Bulldogs is emerging.

North Melbourne sits clear in first spot.

As for the remaining 13 teams? It's going to be a fun race for the seven other finals spots on offer.