HAWTHORN and Carlton will face off for the second time this year, but with opposite momentum.

HAWKS v BLUES Follow it LIVE

The Blues are up and about, confident in the fast, fun footy they've been playing, and ready to do it all again on their home deck despite technically being the away team, while the Hawks are being stretched from every possible angle.

Where and when: Ikon Park, Saturday November 15, 7.15pm AEDT

Head-to-head: Hawthorn – two wins, Carlton – zero wins

Last time they met: Hawthorn 3.12 (30) d Carlton 2.10 (22), round two, 2025

Aine McDonagh saved the day for Hawthorn with a goal from a free kick following a dour, high-pressure clash in Frankston. The game was the high water mark of conversations around the new holding the ball interpretation, and Hawks coach Daniel Webster commented post-match that some of the free kicks paid were "way too hot". Emily Bates was immense for the home side with 25 disposals, five clearances, and a goal, leading Hawthorn's midfield, while it was Harriet Cordner (13 intercepts) who stood tallest for Carlton. Despite the loss, it was a signal toward the Blues' game style which has served them well this year – moving the ball with speed into dangerous parts of the ground – but they just couldn't quite make the most of the chances they created.

KEY MATCH-UP

Tamara Smith v Sophie McKay

In just 13 games Sophie McKay has solidified herself as a crucial cog in Carlton's attacking game, so much so that it is likely Hawthorn will send its best small lockdown defender in Tamara Smith to her for this do-or-die final.

When they played back in round two, McKay was still finding her feet, and looked lively but lacked the final polish to do the damage on the scoreboard. That has all changed, with the young gun dobbing her first career goal the following week, and having kicked 14 for the season to date. And the awe of finals hasn't tempered her verve, with five score involvements and two goals in last week's dominant – and wet – elimination final performance.

Smith is tough, physical, and not afraid to do what she can to get under an opponent's skin, and this is exactly what the Hawks need to minimise, if not nullify, McKay's impact.

WHERE IT WILL BE WON

The Hawks have been uncomfortably stretched when it comes to player availability – particularly for tall options – and this looms as a dangerous area for Webster and co. to contend with. While last week the side did an impressive job of restricting North Melbourne's ball movement despite that lack of height, what lacked was its own capacity to get dangerous with ball in hand. Finding some thoughtful movement from stoppage will be essential, rather than the dump kicking for territory that creeped into last week's loss.

Carlton's backline has made big strides this year when it comes to using its interceptors as launchpads into attacking movement, so hopeful kicks forward are likely to be picked off by the likes of Harriet Cordner and Maddie Hendrie, and sent back into the Blues' hands. Given the form of Cordner in particular, could the Hawks opt to send someone to occupy her, or are they too thin on the ground to sacrifice a forward to a largely defensive role?

The ruck is another area where the Hawks have been challenged this season, due to injuries to Lucy Wales and first-year tall Elli Symonds. Because of this, there is a real freedom offered to Carlton coach Mathew Buck. Jess Good's form through the ruck has been strong – especially in the wet last week – leaving Breann Harrington to go forward and help stretch Hawthorn's backline alongside Tara Bohanna, Poppy Scholz, and Mia Austin.

And these sides experience opposing fortunes as games wear on. The Hawks generally do their damage in the middle two quarters, before dropping away significantly in final quarters – essentially, they are up for the fight but tire late – while the Blues seem to gather momentum throughout matches. The latter has not lost a third quarter since round eight, and last week recorded its highest ever individual quarter score (38 points) in the third term.

PREDICTION

The Blues are this finals series' good news story. Carlton by 10 points.