WILL Melbourne have a say in the finals race after all?

After Simon Goodwin was sacked as coach, attention on Sunday will turn to the Demons' game against the Western Bulldogs, who are desperate for a win at the MCG to keep their finals hopes alive.

While the Dees are well out of the finals race themselves, a fresh start under caretaker coach Troy Chaplin could well lift them out of their funk and help them push the in-form Bulldogs all the way, while they will also play Hawthorn and Collingwood - also desperate for victories in the run to September - over the next three weeks.

So does the upheaval of losing a coach partway through a season historically galvanise or tear apart a playing group?

In the past decade, on the 14 occasions a senior coach has departed mid-season, those clubs hold a 6-8 record in their first game with a new coach at the helm.

While the raw numbers offer no real insight for Sunday's game, a deeper dive indicates a new coach can lead to an immediate lift.

In most circumstances, a senior coach has departed after a string of poor performances and heavy defeats. The fact these struggling teams, over the past 10 years, have a win percentage of 43 per cent the following week suggests some level of on-field improvement.

The most recent example was last season, when West Coast pushed eventual premier Brisbane all the way in Jarrad Schofield's first game as caretaker coach following the departure of Adam Simpson.

At the time, the Lions were in the middle of a nine-match winning streak and a stunning patch of form that would eventually lead them to a breakthrough premiership, while the Eagles had won just three games in another forgettable season. But Schofield's side led in the first quarter and were still inside two kicks deep into the last term before the Lions eventually held on to win by 13 points.

Schofield's Eagles were the latest club with a caretaker coach that were much more competitive than they had been previously, even if they weren't able to win the first game of a tenure.

In 2023, only a bizarre interchange infringement cost North Melbourne a rare win over Sydney in Brett Ratten's first game in charge, just days after Alastair Clarkson had stepped away for personal reasons amid a seven-match losing streak.

Ten years earlier, Melbourne lost 10 of its first 11 games by an average margin of 82 points under Mark Neeld, with the only win coming against the lowly Greater Western Sydney. The Demons' first game under interim Neil Craig was a loss to St Kilda by a relatively respectful 35 points before they secured a breakthrough win the following week over - ironically, given the events of this week - the Western Bulldogs.

In 2015, Essendon lost to Gold Coast by just two points in its first match after James Hird resigned as senior coach. Coming on the back of a five-match losing streak, including two losses by more than 80 points, such a narrow defeat – Jake Carlisle missed a late shot on goal that would have won the game – represented an uptick in performance.

Of the six teams to have won their first game under a new coach in the past decade, three of them - North Melbourne in 2022 (15 games) as well as Carlton (seven games) and St Kilda (four games) in 2019 - broke long losing streaks.

But there are no guarantees a change of coach will bring a change of fortunes straight away.

Fremantle in 2019 (after the departure of Ross Lyon), Gold Coast in 2017 (Rodney Eade) and Carlton in 2015 (Mick Malthouse) all lost their first game under an interim coach by more than seven goals.

Given the uncertainty, it is unlikely even Chaplin or the Demons players know how they will perform on Sunday after a tumultuous few days that has seen the club farewell a premiership coach.

But the Bulldogs, and the Hawks and Magpies after them, would have a right to be slightly nervous over the next three weeks.

New coach bounce?

How clubs perform the week after a coach departs, 2015-2024*

2024

Jarrad Schofield replaced Adam Simpson. West Coast (16th) lost to Brisbane (seventh) by 13 points

2023

Steven King replaced Stuart Dew. Gold Coast (13th) beat St Kilda (sixth) by 26 points

Brett Ratten replaced Alastair Clarkson. North Melbourne (16th) lost to Sydney (14th) by three points

Andrew McQualter replaced Damien Hardwick. Richmond lost (14th) to Port Adelaide (third) by 10 points

2022

Leigh Adams replaced David Noble. North Melbourne (18th) beat Richmond (eighth) by five points

Mark McVeigh replaced Leon Cameron. Greater Western Sydney (15th) beat West Coast (18th) by 52 points.

2021

Robert Harvey replaced Nathan Buckley. Collingwood (15th) lost to Fremantle (11th) by 12 points

2019

Rhyce Shaw replaced Brad Scott. North Melbourne (14th) beat Richmond (fourth) by 37 points

David Teague replaced Brendon Bolton. Carlton (18th) beat Brisbane (fifth) by 15 points

Brett Ratten replaced Alan Richardson. St Kilda (15th) beat the Western Bulldogs (10th) by 27 points

David Hale replaced Ross Lyon. Fremantle (13th) lost to Port Adelaide (11th) by 43 points

2017

Dean Solomon replaced Rodney Eade. Gold Coast (15th) lost to Brisbane (18th) by 58 points

2015

John Barker replaced Mick Malthouse. Carlton (18th) lost to Sydney (third) by 60 points

Matthew Egan replaced James Hird. Essendon (15th) lost to Gold Coast (16th) by two points

*Not including off-season coaching changes or one-game absences for illness etc